Stephen Foster Week: Sunday June 28

We conclude the week, and the first month of summer by visiting Grand Prairie, Texas and playing the races at Lone Star Park.

4:05     1-Lone Star     Maiden Claiming     7 furlongs 

The Sunday opener is a cheap $7.5K maiden event going the demanding seven furlong distance.  The par figure for this level of competition is only 39 and the two most prominent win candidates have exceeded that par in a recent start - that's a good sign.  5-Texas Rain (3/1) has run Beyers of 53-41-49 in her last three starts, the 49 coming most recently in a 6f race off the break HERE.  She was a well beaten third, but was daylight clear of the other nine runners despite breaking 10th of eleven.  The big question is what to make of Steve Asmussen's 4-Minji (5/2) who earned a "solid" 45 in her Oaklawn debut when a pace-setting and weaken-to-third for a $25K tag.  Came right back at that level and stopped like she was shot finishing 11th beaten more than 25 lengths.  Which filly do we get today?

PASS

4:35     2-Lone Star      Maiden Claiming     5f - TURF 

Mixed feelings about favored 4-Vaya Con Dios (5/2) but enough of an edge to dip in for a minimum play.  Bothersome that the 3yo gelding has already been out NINE times with six slices.  And six of the losses have come for a tag.  But on the upside, he's only been in a turf sprint once and ran against more competitive rivals at Churchill Downs while earning a 62 Beyer in a best-of-the-rest second finish.  Sent out by top conditioner Robertino Diodoro who shows a near 30% strike rate with runners off of a similar short break.  Helps that on this strong card with stakes races later in the day this is the DRF "Best" of the day and also Rick Lee's top choice.  Ok, I'll string along....

$5 WIN #4 Vaya Con Dios

5:05     3-Lone Star      Allowance nw1x      8 furlongs 
Half the figures earned by favored 6-Mucho Dinero (8/5) would win this race, and you have to like that he comes off a solid second in the Star of Texas stakes two weeks ago.  Conversely, in fifteen starts he's 15/1-4-3.  Ouch.  But, the entire field is made up of one-time winners including the coupled entry from Karl Broberg where 1-Best Little Man (2/1) is 7/1-1-2 and 1a-Tommytoshort (2/1) is 16/1-7-5.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a big payout upset with a "go figure" winner.

PASS

5:35     4-Lone Star      Claiming     51/2 furlongs 
In a race where most runners for the nickel price tag have very few wins, 11-Toasting Master (9/2) is a THIRTEEN time winner (with eleven runner-up finishes).  Claimed out of the 8yo gelding's final start at Sam Houston he was entered here off a four month break in a starter where he could not be claimed.  It's appealing to me that the barn would lay out money for an eight-year-old and then enters him where he cannot be taken first time out.  Showed speed while dueling into the lane before giving way.  The outside draw should allow a tracking trip and give him every opportunity to pay off dividends to the new connections.

$5 WIN #11 Toasting Master

6:07     5-Lone Star     The Lone Star Park Turf     8f - TURF 
In the allowance prep for this stakes event - from which FIVE of that field return, including the top three finishers - 3-Curlin's Journey (5/2) got an ideal set-up to close down favored 4-Quebec (2/1) who pressed the front, took over but could not hold off the late charge of the winner.  I'm not a handicapper who gives weight a lot of consideration but noting how close the top three were, the fact that the winner somehow gets WEIGHT off (four pounds) might be helpful.  And as much as you can make a case for the beaten favorite, it looks like a nearly identical pace scenario is going to develop and allow Curlin's Journey (who is graded stakes placed) to finish off the field yet again.

$10 WIN #3 Curlin's Journey

6:37     6-Lone Star     Claiming nw2L     6 furlongs 
A bulky field of FOURTEEN runners are in this $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime sprint.  And thirteen of them have lost at this level or lower (most multiple times).  But Steve Asmussen's 4-Winter Wolf (3/1) has only been out seven times.  And he ran a good 2nd against $25K 2L, then has run third in back-to-back nw2L for a $15K tag.  Drops in with veteran Stewart Elliot in the irons.  Should press the pace from the inside and run away through the lane.

$15 WIN #4 Winter Wolf

7:07     7-Lone Star     The Grand Prairie Derby (3yo)     81/2 furlongs 
Steve Asmussen's stakes placed colt, 2-Little Menace (8/5) has never been beyond six furlongs but he is bred for the distance and Asmussen wins with 21% of his stretch out runners.  Four straight big numbers and a sharp bullet work should put him up close if not on the lead.  He's the consensus pick by the public handicappers and will certainly be the public choice.  He's the one to catch and the one to beat as "Lee's Lock" of the day.

$15 WIN #2 Little Menace

7:37     8-Lone Star     The Lone Star Mile      8 furlongs 
It looks like there will be a contested pace in here and that only adds to the appeal of multiple graded stakes winner 7-Mocito Rojo (9/2) who will be tracking the leaders from mid-pack and finishing with a flourish.  The only concern is often when it appears on paper that the pace flow will be contested like this one someone shoots to the front and everyone else figures "someone" will go with them, and they don't, leading to a wire-to-wire winner.  But be that as it may, there's still a LOT to like about the top pick here.  He exits a key race at the Fair Grounds and has worked sharply for this, including a best of thirty-six bullet move recently.  But in addition to the pace flow appeal, and class appeal, it's very encouraging that at this one-mile trip Mocito Rojo is 10/7-1-1 and has banked more than half his career earnings at the trip ($400K of $800K).  I think he's a very solid choice in here.

$15 WIN #7 Mocito Rojo

8:07     9-Lone Star     Maiden Special     5f - TURF 
9-Robo (5/2) came off the bench and moved from state-bred MSW runners to OPEN MSW rivals while trying the turf for the first time.  The 3yo gelding drew the rail that day and had to work out a trip from behind horses, but did so, finishing strongly to be second at odds of 33/1.  Now second off the bench, a near 30% win angle for the barn, he brings the best Beyer on the page to the table and should get an ideal tracking trip from mid-pace before graduating by daylight.  Would be nice to close out the day, the week, and the month of June with a winner, eh?

$10 WIN #9 Robo

Stephen Foster Week: Friday June 26

Just spending the day in New York today, spending more time looking at multiple tracks for tomorrow's big day of racing.

1:15     1-Belmont     Claiming nw2L     61/2 furlongs 

Typically not a fan of taking last out maiden winners who earned a new career top figure, but in this case 4-Star of the West (4/5) is a deserving favorite.  Claimed out of a Saratoga debut maiden event by trainer Rudy Rodriguez for OWNER Rudy Rodriguez he was sent to the sidelines for eleven months.  When the 4yo resurfaced it was for the same $20K but under protection from being claimed.  With blinkers on the colt shot to the front and dominated the field in wire to wire fashion.  And normally earning a new career top (74) loose on the lead would be suspect, but in this short field of five he looks loose again.  Sure, one of the rivals COULD change running styles but last time out these were the running positions at the first call for today's opponents:  13th by 10, 8th by 12, 4th by 2, 10th by 9 3/4, and 5th by 3 1/2.  Hot-riding Irad on board should coast wire to wire.  A pressing trip COULD get the money for the upset on 6-Dr. Devera's Way (6/1) but after "building" a career mark of 12/1-2-1 and five straight losses at this level I just don't think so.

$10 WIN #4 Star of the West

1:50     2-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     6 furlongs 

I've remarked on several occasions when handicapping NYRA races that DRF analyst Mike Beer, who covers New York racing is a "value player" and rarely likes the favorite.  So it carries some weight that he likes the 4/5 favorite in the opener and comes right back with the short priced chalk here in the second.  3-Cobble Hill (6/5) COULD be played against, and I get it that you can make numbers say anything.  But consider this view..... In his last five starts he's earned two dirt sprint numbers that beat 58 of the 59 Beyers of today's field, and that was in a state-bred race while Cobble Hill has seen nothing but open company.  What about the other three starts?  Toss the two-turn turf try; toss the MSW in open company; and then if you're willing to toss the try in the mud, that leaves you with the two dominant efforts.  And note that the last race second came when chasing loose on the lead Star of the West....yes the pick in the first race.  So we'll feel even more confident if that one runs well today against winners, as we expect.

$10 WIN #3 Cobble Hill

2:23     3-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     81/2 f - TURF 

It's a "Chalk With Irad" kind of day as Ortiz takes the call on the very talented 1-Good Governance (3/5) who's trained by Chad Brown.  The Klaravich owned colt debuted as a 3yo at Saratoga and drew post ten of eleven going a mile.  Was last at the first call then rallied wide to win with a big 86 figure.  Came back first time vs. winners in the Gr 3 Saranac and was a neck away from winning against Global Access who exited this race to win another Gr 3 event.  Granted the 'Governor has not been seen since that mid-August effort, but Brown has already won SIX times with long layoff turf horses, and don't they all seem to be Klaravich runners with Irad up?  Looks really good in here.

$15 WIN #1 Good Governance

2:55     4-Belmont     Claiming     6f - TURF 
In the twelve lines showing in the past performances for 4-Sanity (5/2) she's only sprinted on the turf in four races.  And her figures in those (78-76-76-75) ALL rank at the top of the numbers earned by everyone else in here.  And what separates her from the morning line favorite, 3-First Appeal (4/5) in my mind, is that all of those numbers for Sanity came in open allowance events.  First Appeal meanwhile has been facing state-bred rivals.  And included in her string of efforts is a loss for a tag, with the lone win in a "beaten" $16K event going five furlongs at Gulfstream in 2019.  It's unrealistic, I think, to honestly believe Irad Ortiz will be in the winner's circle after each of the first four races, but he looks to be "LIVE" again in here on Sanity.

$10 WIN #4 Sanity

3:27     5-Belmont      Claiming      7 furlongs 
Maybe 7-Tale of the Mist (7/2) gets the job done in here on the class drop.  Have to be concerned with the 44/4-8-13 career mark, ouch.  But much better locally (15/3-3-4) and unlike most in here he's run well at the distance.  The favorite has Irad, but 5-Javelin (9/5) is 0-for-12 here at Belmont.  I just can't support that with a real money wager.

PASS

3:59     6-Belmont      Maiden Special     8f - TURF 
I understand the reluctance to take the favorite, in a maiden race no less.  But it's all about who is the best horse with the most likely chance to win.  AND that offers enough of an edge to wager on.  To me, the fact that 4-Barleewon (2/1) finished in front of FIVE of the nine entered here three weeks ago, coming off three month break, makes the 3yo colt a legitimate favorite.  The four who have not faced him are.... a second time starter who debuted in a Saratoga dirt sprint and now goes off the shelf, long on the turf; a So Cal shipper who's only turf try was miserable; a 10x maiden who's been clear on the front multiple times and caved each and every time; a 12/1 outsider who's got two dirt sprints while beaten double digits in both starts; and a first time starter for a barn that's 1-for-15.  It's graduation day for the Michael Stidham charge with Johnny Velazquez up.

$5 WIN #4 Barleewon

4:32     7-Belmont     AOC nw2x      81/2 f - TURF 
Eight of the nine have spent their entire career in state-bred allowance races; half just won the first level allowance and the others have run in second level allowance tries.  Not a fan of betting those kind, and especially when most have seen each other.  But the favorite, 9-Rinaldi (3/1) fits the profile for this level of competition.  He was a good third in a 6f turf sprint then broke his maiden in a 7f turf sprint in a state-bred NY Stallion Series stakes event.  Stretched around two turns and dominated another NY Stallion Series stakes.  Tried open company in the Gr 3 Saranac - yes, the same race that Race 3 choice Good Governance exits - and was a close fourth.  The only question is the long layoff for a barn firing at a 1-for-17 clip.  Ouch....Luis Saez up.

$5 WIN #9 Rinaldi

5:04     8-Belmont     The Hessonite Stakes     6f - TURF 
It's a wide open featured event where several have faced each other; several have raced in open company; and several have won at this unique 6f turf trip.  Just watching.

PASS

5:36     9-Maiden Claiming      61/2 furlongs 
If 1-Kefaliani (9/2) runs back to her last when a best of the rest 2nd behind a repeat winner, she's your winner at a fair price under Manny Franco.  That race was in January so you'd like to see some nice works.  But the most recent work is a 72nd of 79 workers.  Hmmmm.

PASS

Stephen Foster Week: Thursday June 25

Today we'll play Belmont and Woodbine.  I've always loved playing Woodbine (even spent an entire season handicapping daily there).  The main draw today is the Jacques Cartier Stakes where the ultimate Horse-for-the-Course Pink Lloyd makes his 2020 debut.  Here we go.....

1:15     1-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     6f - TURF 

Everyone in here has "issues" to overcome and the top pick is far from "solid," but it JUST COULD be that the stars have aligned and the "racing gods" are trying to set us up here.  Or not.  But, as I said in the intro, the main attraction today is Pink Lloyd in the featured stakes in Toronto.  So as I scan the first race here in New York, who's the morning line favorite?  9-Plink Fleud (5/2) of all names....is it a coincidence, probably.  Are the "racing gods" giving us one?  MAYBE..... Not a fan that this 4yo filly has already been out TEN times, but she's run at this 6f distance three times and been close - the first two vs. MSW and the last a troubled 6th.  Beaten only  1 3/4 lengths after stumbling out of the gate.  Jose Ortiz up.  Lightly raced 3-Dream Chasing (3/1) the logical alternative.  First time tag and only the second time on the turf.  But the Beyers are significantly lower.  Go with the hunch play to start the day!

$5 WIN #9 Plink Fleud

1:50     2-Belmont     Claiming nw2L     61/2 furlongs 

Nine of the ten are either last out maiden claiming winners or long-time losers in two-lifetime claiming company.  The lone runner who's never been in restricted company is 20/1 and his pp's look every bit of that.  Moving on.....

PASS

2:23     3-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     61/2 furlongs 
A dozen state-bred maiden claimers for a moderate $25 tag.  And more than two thirds of them have had many, MANY chances.  Interesting that the DRF's Mike Beer has his "best bet" in here.  But you have to know Beer and how he makes his picks.  Next to never likes the favorite and almost always his "best" is a price play.  I'll grant you that his analysis is "accurate," but do I agree that this is the "most likely winner" and/or best bet on the card.  No, hardly.

PASS

2:55     4-Belmont     Claiming      81/2 f - TURF 
Even the top choice in here is far from a "confident" play but I like the angle on 3-Abiding Star (5/1) today.  Granted, he'll have to win off the layoff, but nearly all of them have been away for a while.  One of the big plus signs here is that the rest of the field has collectively a 4-for-43 mark over the Belmont grass.  Meanwhile, Abiding Star himself is 4-for-10.  Nice edge.  Second, last year he ran at this level and distance and wired the field for fun.  He then ran in a 2nd level allowance here and then was ambitiously campaigned.....FIVE straight stakes at five different tracks, at four different distances.  And he collected two runner-up checks and WON a stakes in that sequence.  His head had to be spinning with the distances and travel.  Now back to a claiming spot at a distance he likes.

$10 WIN #3 Abiding Star

3:27     5-Belmont     Maiden Claiming    6f - TURF 
Nothing in the field with experience inspires me.  But 7-Quantitativebreezin (9/2) debuts for trainer Brad Cox who's been white hot since Belmont opened.  Winning at a 33% clip for the meet he's also well known for great work with turf runners.  Luis Saez has won with FIVE of ten for Cox here at Belmont.  If this debut runner has even a modicum of talent he's got a good chance at getting his photo taken after his initial start.

$5 WIN #7 Quantitativebreezin

3:45     1-Woodbine      Maiden Claiming     5 furlongs 
Let's first establish we're talking about ultra-cheap $7.5K maidens here so let's not go wild.  I do like the chances for 5-Don't Smile Lila (9/5) who came off the bench and ran a good third for twice the price tag.  Gets the nation's Eclipse Award winning apprentice from last year on board.  Like her even more considering the other two favorites..... 6-Flat Out Fabulous (2/1) clearly has better figures (in three straight) but she's an ELEVEN time maiden, the last four at this same level and five back for a cheap $4K.  No, big time no.  And 2-Enhanced Finances (5/2) COULD win (where as I don't believe 'Fabulous could win if she was the only one in the race!) after she showed speed for a half mile then backed up vs. $10K last time off the bench.  But I have a hard time backing a rider who's off to a 1-for-41 start to the meet.  YIKES.

$5 WIN #5 Don't Smile Lila

3:59     6-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     8 furlongs 
You have to be suspicious when a thoroughbred suddenly runs a huge Beyer figure, especially in defeat (since Beyer figures are determined first by assigning the number to the winner, then beaten lengths largely determine everyone else's number).  But it's worth noting that 3-Singular Sensation (2/1) earned that last out 83 - tons the best for this field - when second beaten a neck to Ratajowski who came right back to win and then won last Thursday's feature, The Critical Eye Stakes.  We're on board, and it doesn't hurt the confidence level that Mike Beer, never one to like the favorite, puts her on top as well.

$5 WIN #3 Singular Sensation

4:14     2-Woodbine     Claiming nw3L     51/2 furlongs 
All six have lost in restricted company and the 9/5 favorite has lost at this condition and price tag in three straight.  NOPE....

PASS

4:32     7-Belmont     AOC nw2x     6f - TURF 
So this analysis for every handicapper has to go through what you think of 7-Dowse's Beach (2/1) in here.  The now 9yo gelding has won 13 times on the turf and is 4-for-13 at this unique trip.  Has clearly THE BEST Beyers.  BUT.....all those were earned while being trained by Jason Servis who has been suspended from training and under indictment for use of various drugs to move up his horses.  So, at nine, at a short price, out of the Servis barn.  What do you do?  For me I can't bet on him.  But I don't see anyone else who's clearly good enough to beat him.

PASS

4:43     3-Woodbine     Maiden Claiming     6 furlongs 
By default you HAVE to consider 3-Twick (5/2) who debuts today.  She debuts in the cheapest of cheap ($7.5K) maiden events going six furlongs and it has to be a concern that this is where they start her.  BUT then you look at her competition.  Who bets the favorite, 6-Cheetahra (2/1) in here?  OK, so the numbers are better, but seriously folks, this 7-year-old - yes, seven-year-old maiden, has already been out twenty-seven times.  Wait, what?  Yes, you read that right.......27 starts and no wins, and SHE is the favorite.  Against this same kind to close out last year she went off at odds of 24/1, 38/1, 27/1, and 17/1.  And today she's the 2/1 favorite.  Come on.  The other four have ultra-low Beyers so if Twick can even jog quickly she's your winner.

$5 WIN #3 Twick
(up the bet if she takes money)

5:04     8-Belmont     The Easy Goer Stakes (3yo)     81/2 furlongs 
The featured event, usually run on the undercard of Belmont Day, features three-year-olds going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.  Half the field of six exit wins in an entry level allowance and the others were not competitive in graded stakes last out.  I think Steve Asmussen's 4-Sonneman (2/1) has some real talent.  His only poor effort came in a 5 1/2 furlong 2yo debut at Saratoga.  When stretched to 7f at the Spa he was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  Came to Belmont and broke his maiden at a one-turn mile.  Back to 7f for his 3yo debut at Gulfstream and he closed that race down, first time winners from well back.  Was under Mark Henning's care through that race and now Asmussen takes over and puts the son of Curlin into a stakes spot.

$5 WIN #4 Sonneman

5:12     4-Woodbine     Claiming nw2L     6 furlongs 
1-Sea Lily (5/2) gets the call but won't get my money.  Just can't bring myself to like her enough in this $15K 2L claiming event.  Ran three times in a MC $25 with two good efforts last year, scoring in the third try.  Off the long break the connections brought her back in allowance company to start this year and she opened up by daylight to the far turn.  Then plummeted through the field to finish 9th.  Drops in for the cheap tag and conditioned company but looks to take some pace pressure.  Interesting that - like in NY - the DRF Best is in this puzzling event.  And the top choice is a runner who is 1-for-11, never won on the Woodbine main (won over the turf), is winless at the distance, and has three times lost in 2-lifetime company.  I can't take that.

PASS

5:36     9-Belmont     Maiden Special     7f - TURF 
You CAN'T have any confidence in here.  Several who are firsters, several who've never been on turf, and all those with experience have only gone six furlongs.
I'm out of NY today.

PASS

5:45     5-Woodbine     Claiming nw2L     5f - TURF 
While you don't know for sure, three angles APPEAR to point out the favorite 2-Act of Bob (2/1) this evening.  First, she drops out of an allowance event in for a first time tag AND in conditioned company for the first time.  That always produces improved efforts.  Second, she adds blinkers today and you HAVE to think that had something to do with the recent bullet work.  And third, she gets a rider switch back to the 2019 Eclipse Award winning apprentice rider who was on board for her first two starts which were both quality efforts.

$5 WIN #2 Act of Bob

6:15     6-Woodbine     AOC / C     6f - TURF 
Trainer Robert Tiller sends out 1-Reconfigure (3/1) who IF the 8yo runs back to his last three appearances at this distance on the turf would be tough to beat.  In a race at this level going slightly farther at 6 1/2 furlongs he took the lead and was clear by a length, only to be run down late, losing by less than a length.  Back in another conditioned allowance, and this at this 6f distance and was clear in the lane before getting nailed on the wire - second beaten a head.  Came right back in the Gr 2 Nearctic Stakes and was 2nd beaten a neck.  Those three Beyers 86-89-92 would all be tough to beat in here today.  His thing is turf (8/4-3-1) and he goes second off the long break, synthetic to turf and stretches out a full furlong.

$10 WIN #1 Reconfigure

6:45     7-Woodbine     Grade 3 Jacques Cartier     6 furlongs 
Well, just looking at the morning line you KNOW we aren't going to make any money on this evening's feature.....

But you don't much more consistent that 5-Pink Lloyd (1/9) at the races.  This guy has been out 27 times with 22 wins.  All of them here at Woodbine.  And at this six furlong distance, he's a remarkable 17-for-18.  Oh my.  He's won this race three year's running.  OH MY.  He was a perfect 6-for-6 last year, officially (have to toss the left-at-the-gate, declared a non-starter event).  Is he ready to run?  Well he ALWAYS fires fresh and blistered a bullet work for this.  He's beaten everyone in here on more than one occasion with one exception who just was a narrow winner of an entry level allowance off the bench.  Pink Lloyd - the BET of the DAY for Thursday.

$50 WIN #5 Pink Lloyd

7:15     8-Woodbine     Claiming nw3L     51/2 furlongs 
The presence of speedy 1-Buttermilk Pike (2/1) on the rail makes it difficult to bet this race.  You simply cannot trust that 90 Beyer he earned off the bench when wiring a cheap field of $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime, while in COMPLETE control (one of the most unreliable Beyer figures - a loose on the lead wire-to-wire winner).  And now he's in for $25K while up to 3-lifetime?  AND he'd never run faster than a mid-70s before?  But, what if he does.  Won't bet on him, but also won't bet against.  Just watching.

PASS

Stephen Foster Week: Wednesday June 24

It's Stephen Foster Week at Churchill Downs.  Multiple stakes on the docket for both Churchill Downs and Belmont, and it's Ohio Derby Day at Thistledowns....all this on Saturday.  Just a quick personal note (it's my website, I can if I want to!)  On Monday I drove across the state to look at possible rental homes for us.  Our oldest son Jeff has taken a position as head football coach at Oasis High and has asked me to work with him.  Let's see, be close to the grandsons, work with my son - who was MY ballboy some thirty years ago...duh, yes.  So here's a video walk-through of the home we've picked.

Pretty nice, right?  Let's see if we can get some winners home before the weekend!

12:00     1-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming      5f - TURF 

The weather forecast looks good for racing on the inner, so let's plan for that.  The opener is an interesting, cheap $12.5K maiden event.  And I agree with the DRF analysis that 10-Wordman (6/1) should enjoy (a) returning to a sprint, and (b) halving his price tag.  Granted, when he ran well in his first two starts sprinting on the grass he was in the Todd Pletcher barn.  Now he goes out for Phil Serpe.  This one-time NY based trainer often had good turf runners.  Twice ran third sprinting with numbers that are a pole better than anything else in here, other than 6-Thenextbesthing (7/2) who is the probable speed of the race.  In MSW efforts he had three 3rd and three 4th place finishes.  But those were out of town.  Last out he plunged to this level and showed speed to the stretch and faded.

$5 WIN #10 Wordman

12:30     2-Gulfstream     Maiden Special (2yo)     5 furlongs 

Todd Pletcher's 3-Son of a Beast (5/2) will take money and is PROBABLY good, and has hot-riding Edgard Zayas on board.  But, while I can make a case for 2yo maidens at Keeneland, Saratoga, and Del Mar I find it difficult here at GP in the spring/summer.  Just watching.

PASS

1:02      3-Gulfstream     Claiming     8 furlongs 
If you're a thoroughbred handicapper and you scan Race 3's past performances one thing LEAPS off the page...... 1-Dizzy Gillespie (8/5) has the rail and is THE Lone Speed.  He's won EIGHT times at this one mile trip, and note he's 8-for-21 at 8f and only 3-for-20 at all other distances.  Third off the layoff and long gone on the front end.  It's strictly his race to loose.

$15 WIN #1 Dizzy Gillespie

1:34     4-Gulfstream     Claiming nw3L      81/2 furlongs 
While it's true that 5-Speed Franco (7/2) OBVIOUSLY has seen better days, this former graded stakes winner drops into a claiming event for the first time and into conditioned company for the first time as well.  Both BIG signs that he'll improve.  His last start was several months ago over the Fair Grounds course, but that was in a 2nd level allowance when he was coming off of seven month layoff.  He ran a strong 80 Beyer after finishing 4th beaten just three lengths.  Note that he was up on the pace and most winners over the New Orleans course come from off the pace.  If he's got anything left in the tank from his former classy efforts, he's your winner here.

$5 WIN #5 Speed Franco

2:05     5-Gulfstream     Maiden Special     81/2 furlongs 
Here's what you have to decide....is the Chad Brown 2nd string filly 5-Baseline Drive (5/2) better than the more experienced So Fla spring/summer fillies?  You KNOW that if Brown thought Baseline Drive was REALLY good he'd have taken her north to Belmont with his "first team."  And those runners - especially those on the turf - have been running lights out.  I, for one, think that a Brown first timer IS better than the common maiden based down here year round.  'Drive is a daughter of champion Point of Entry and has been working steadily since mid March.  Edgard Zayas riding very well right now.  No surprise either way, but worth the gamble I believe.

$5 WIN #5 Baseline Drive

2:37     6-Gulfstream     Claiming     8 furlongs 
Very little to like here.  You COULD gamble on 8-Baseline (4/1) who before the break was beating this kind at this trip at Parx.  But when he showed up here he tried turf (he'd run on it before and ran ok) and was buried.  Not a fan.

PASS

3:09     7-Gulfstream     Claiming     8f - TURF 
I often find winners in spots similar to this.  This is a $35K "beaten" event where the conditions read, "....for 3yo and up which have never won three races OR which have not won a race since December 24, 2019...."  I've found when the conditions are so specific you can often find a horse that the conditions were apparently written to fit that one runner.  In this case it's 6-Tropicat (4/1) who is a five time winner on the turf - all at this one mile trip.  And he's won four times over this grass course.  But note the last win..... December 19, 2019!  Uh oh.  Wouldn't be a surprise if Todd Pletcher's 5-Colonist (5/1) won here.  Before the layoff line EIGHT of the ten races were in stakes, five of them graded!  Off a LONG layoff he ran in back-to-back $100K optional allowance races.  He ran a "good" but well beaten third in an off-the-turf event last time out but today PLUNGES in for a tag.  That doesn't look like a "confident" move to me.

$10 WIN #6 Tropicat

3:41      8-Gulfstream     Claiming nw2L     7 furlongs 
The field of eight has a combined, COMBINED two starts at today's difficult seven furlong trip.  One of those starts was a win, by nearly a dozen lengths by 7-Flute Maker (8/1) who is the DRF Best Bet.  And while he could win, he won't get my money.  Since that maiden win he's run three times, with the three losses by a combined 45 lengths.  OUCH.

PASS

4:13     9-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x     5f - TURF 
I would not argue if you analyze my choice here and say, "No, not for me."  But 4-Hera (9/2) gets Paco Lopez on board for David Carlos.  Carlos winning 28% overall, and when Paco is up - they win at a big 42%.  Uh oh.  Why wouldn't you like this choice?  Hera has NEVER run in a turf sprint.  But the way I see it, there's a lot of speed and Paco keeps Hera close enough, then blows by.

$10 WIN #4 Hera

4:45     10-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming     8f - TURF 
IF, and granted it's a fairly big "IF" this race runs to form the winner will be either 8-First In Line (5/2) or 10-Mountain Breeze (7/2) who both will be coming from off the pace.  I prefer the former because he SHOULD sit a little closer to the front and work out a better trip.  Also, their identical Beyers came in the last start for the former and three starts back for Mountain Breeze.  Close call.

PASS

Belmont Stakes Week: Sunday June 21

Happy Father's Day to all the Dads out there.  Three tracks today on this holiday Sunday....Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita.....

1:00     1-Churchill     Claiming nw2L     8 furlongs 
I get it, 2-The Rock Says (1/1) is not the "best bet" to make in here, but he IS the most likely winner.  Toss the first two career starts on turf, though he tried hard finishing 2nd and 3rd.  First time at a route on dirt in his third start he WON....and HERE under the Twin Spires.  Since then he's been frustrated with two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth all in allowance company.  Comes off the shelf and drops into this high-priced $50K restricted claiming event.  He always runs his race and that is something you cannot say about his challengers.  Sure, one of them COULD win today but none of them consistently perform so someone is going to have to "surprise" with a turn around in form while the consistent favorite would have to run a career worst.  Figuring that won't happen here.  I personally like the turn back to a one-turn mile for the first time for this son of Uncle Mo.

$10 WIN #2 The Rock Says

1:15     1-Belmont     Claiming nw2L     6f - TURF 

8-Noble Jewel (3/1) is entered in an allowance event on Saturday so if she awaits this nw2L claiming event she'll have a much stronger chance.  Her debut came in a 6f turf sprint like this and she was up to win.  Three allowance tries followed - toss the off-the-turf try, her worst effort.  She was within five of the winner in the other two without threatening.  A probable winner if able to overcome the wide draw and the long layoff.  Gets a weight break with the promising apprentice rider in the irons.

PASS

1:34     2-Churchill     Maiden Claiming (2yo)     5 furlongs 
Eight of the nine debut here and while $40K isn't a cheap tag, it IS a tag nonetheless so you have to wonder about just how much ability these juveniles have if first out of the box they're for sale.  And the one who debuted in MSW was drilled.  Not for me.

PASS

1:50     2-Belmont     Maiden Special (2yo)     5 furlongs 

Trainer Wesley Ward has been most unproductive with his juveniles this year so I'm reluctant to recommend his 3-Roderick (9/5) who debuts today with some good works.  I'd lean more to the Todd Pletcher firster 5-Winfromwithin (5/2) under John Velazquez if I were inclined to play here, which I'm not.

PASS

2:06     3-Churchill     Claiming     8 furlongs 
Four weeks ago 3-Summer Revolution (2/1) appeared in an open $8K one-turn mile event here going first off the claim for Roberto Diodoro.  He exerted his back class and drew off as much the best as the post time favorite.  His Beyer that day is indicative that at this level he may have recovered his one-time stakes speed.  That's nothing but bad news for the rest of the field.  Interesting that 'Summer was claimed away from owner/trainer Steve Asmussen after spending 2019 winless.  And today the main rival to Summer Revolution is 1-Above Board (4/1) who goes second off the claim for.....that's right owner/trainer Steve Asmussen.  On his best day he can win this, but two things would be required.  First, all of 'Board's best efforts have come when loose on the lead and at other tracks than Churchill Downs.  And second he'd need Summer Revolution to regress today.  Also note that while Summer Revolution raced a month ago, Above Board has not been seen since mid September.

$10 WIN #3 Summer Revolution

2:23     3-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     10f - TURF 

Honestly, I have mixed feelings about Todd Pletcher's 2-Cap de Creus (7/5) in here.  And at first glance you'd think that a short priced favorite who's 0-for-9 on the turf is strictly a play against.  But then you look at the likely alternatives..... Shug McGaughey's lightly raced 5-Civil Union (2/1) and Jimmy Toner's 6-Whatdoesthesharksay (6/1) who both DO have wins on the turf, the latter AT THIS DISTANCE over this course.  But you look at the past performances of those two challengers and they share a common foe - BOTH were defeated by Cap de Creus.  Oh.  And if you're a believer in Beyer speed figures, which I am, the last two figures earned by Cap de Creus beat all the combined 27 numbers earned by this field....and those are NOT her best figures.  She drops out of back to back Gr 3 events.  Note she was actually the favorite in the Gr 3 Very One two back, yes....without a turf win on her resume.  And the reason for that is the four back race where she came within a photo finish head of Mean Mary who took two straight graded events out of that allowance victory.  John Velazquez rides for Pletcher.

$10 WIN #2 Cap de Creus

2:38     4-Churchill     Claiming     8 furlongs 
Seven of the eight COULD win in here and are plunging in class to try and recover their form.  But it appears the most likely winner is 8-Lady Cleopatra (3/1) who dominated this level of competition last time out, HERE albeit going two turns.  She HAS won at a one-turn mile here, so she's legitimate.  But I can't get past the trainer's 0-for-20 mark with last out winners over the last two years.  Just watching.

PASS

2:54     4-Belmont     Claiming nw2L     8 furlongs 

Well you can't bet 2-More Than Striking (7/2) off his last two starts, but he ran into Tapit To Win who ran in the Belmont on Saturday, so give him a pass.  A return to his first two starts gives him a chance against the heavy favorite, 7-Bebe Banker (4/5) who has impressed the morning line maker despite having compiles a 20/1-3-4 record.  WOW, that's not the kind of horse I want to bet on.

PASS

3:10     5-Churchill     Maiden Claiming     61/2 furlongs 
The nine who have started were beaten a combined 124 lengths in their last.  That makes the 4th by 7 in the second and most recent start for 1-Tetrahydro (4/1) look a lot more appealing.  But how do you reconcile the move from 4th for a $150K tag and now in for $20K?  Ouch.  But, it's all about the match-up as the other "logical" one is 10-Annie'sgoldengirl (4/1) who showed speed for a quarter mile then stopped, finishing 8th beaten 16 lengths as the 8/5 favorite here three weeks ago at this same price tag.  Not betting.

PASS

3:29     5-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     6f - TURF 
All of these have not visited the winner's circle in quite a while, but with that said I think there are several solid angles to support 3-Morning Breez (7/5) in this spot.  While he hasn't won at this 6f turf distance he ran strongly here with solid Beyer figures that beat everything everyone else has run with one exception.  What I like most is that the two most likely alternative win choices BOTH will want the lead and should set up his pressing trip.  Second off the shelf today.  With 7-Quarky (5/2) you have to overlook, and it's a BIG OVERLOOK his past when the 5/2 favorite at Gulfstream and he ran 8th beaten nearly twenty lengths.  OK, he was coming off a LONG break, but I mean he stopped like he was shot.  A good sign that jockey Luis Saez sticks with this one who's the only one with Beyers to compete with the top one.  May be pace compromised on the front end and note he's lost ten in a row since breaking his maiden fifteen months ago.  2-Montauk Daddy (5/1) is the price play and has only been out four times with ALL of them quality efforts.  But his Beyers are multiple lengths slower and you have to be concerned that trainer Linda Rice is off to an 0-for-20 start here in NY.

$5 WIN #3 Morning Breez

3:30     1-Santa Anita     The Siren Lure     51/2 f - TURF 
What you have to decide in the So Cal opener is this - do you believe that 4-Sparky Ville (9/5) can run back to his career best effort a month ago.  He earned a career best 104 figure when 2nd in the Grade 3 Daytona.  He did all the work on the front end, sizzling the way while posting an :21 flat opening quarter, stopped the clock at :43.2 after the opening half mile and then was caught on the wire by a Gr 1 winner.  He could bounce today and if he runs back to his low-90s he's just a contender.  Have to like that he's a stakes winner at two and three and about to be a stakes winner at four today.

$5 WIN #4 Sparky Ville

3:42     6-Churchill     Allowance nw1x     81/2 f - TURF 
If 7-Evil Lynn (7/2) runs back to her last race 86 Beyer earned in a blowout win here going nine furlongs, she's a daylight winner.  And were this at Gulfstream handicappers Jason Blewitt and Ron Nicoletti would be salivating over how she's first off the claim for Mike Maker - who's an unremarkable 15% with those yet gets rave reviews.  So that win came in her third straight win on the turf, (3-for-3) but in a "beaten" $40K event.  If she runs back to her previous two wins she's vulnerable to Brad Cox's 8-Dreamalildreamofu (5/1) who's 2/1-1-0 on the turf and gets back on today after being away from the grass since March while racing at turf-less Oaklawn Park.  And we have to give a shout out to 4-How Ironic (5/1) who lost in a 2-lifetime allowance here to conclude her 2019 season then was beaten less than three lengths in the Gr 3 Florida Oaks at 92/1 and came back to be beaten less than three lengths in the Sanibel Island stakes at 52/1.  Goes for a barn that's 0-for-18 here and a mere 1-for-49 in all of 2020.  Ouch.

PASS

4:00     2-Santa Anita     Starter Optional Claiming     8f - TURF 
Not thrilled about the runners in here, but I am intrigued to see how shipper 3-Salvator Muni (4/1) runs in here.  Has a sharp bullet work and maybe the new face can score the mild surprise.

PASS

4:01     6-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     8f - TURF 
8-Checksandbalances (7/2) may be one of the few Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz / Klaravich Stables turf runners that does NOT go off at odds on.  How DO you feel about this well bred first timer showing up for a tag in her initial run?  OK, so it's a rich $75K tag so considering the breeding fee was only $39K the powerful stable would turn this into an instant profit.  And you have to trust that Brown spots them where they belong.  The one who will attract attention at the windows and deservedly so is 1-Tilsa (3/1) who was 2nd best in her debut for trainer Jonathan Thomas.  Note the barn is a big 38% with second time maidens.  Not a fan that her MSW debut was at Tampa and she was losing ground, nearly caught by the show horse with a less than striking Beyer figure.  Still John Velazquez takes the mount and he wins 40% of his limited mounts for this outfit.

$10 WIN #8 Checksandbalance

4:14     7-Churchill     Claiming nw2L     6 furlongs 
Maybe lightly raced 9-Uncle Momo (6/1) gets his second win here for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana.  Set the pace at 5/1 for a half mile in a $20K nw2L last time out and then absolutely stopped.  Cuts the tag in half in search of a win.  4-Creekmore (6/1) much the same mold but he set the pace and stopped in an OPEN $20K event.  Would be more appealing if the rider wasn't 24/0-1-5 at the meet.

PASS

4:30     3-Santa Anita     Maiden Special (2yo)     41/2 furlongs 
There's no Bob Baffert juvenile to light it up in here so this looks wide open.  I don't think I've ever heard of trainer Luis Mendez, but he's winning at a 40% clip here at SA and he's 22% with his first time starters (27 starters) and 21% with his juveniles (53 starters).  The rider only eight mounts but won with three of them (38%).  LOVE the best of 59 bullet work from the gate for 2-Dr. Schivel (5/2).  He looks "live" to me.

$10 WIN #2 Dr. Schivel

4:34     7-Belmont     Claiming     6 furlongs 
The "most likely" winners are either last out maiden claiming victors or a runner who's 8/1-2-3 and I don't like the chances of any of those kinds horses so I'll be watching this one.

PASS

4:46     8-Churchill     AOC nw2x     6 furlongs 
It's a wide open second level allowance where you could land on several runners in here and feel some degree of confidence.  But I like the upset chances of 4-Shashashakemeup (5/1) - one, for the obvious reason of his name reminding me of one of my most favorite gals at Cypress Bay High School when I worked there, Shasha Hilbon.  Last time out in early April she sprinted in an Oaklawn allowance and came from near the back to win going away with a big figure.  That was his second win in six starts.  The previous four can all be tossed from consideration in evaluation for this spot.  Last time out a turf sprint, toss....the previous two were graded stakes around two turns at the Fair Grounds.....draw a line through those....the four back was at this distance, but was the Sugar Bowl Stakes in his first try vs. winners.  So the ONLY time he sprinted without running in a stakes was last time - a big win, and in debut he he WON....HERE in his MSW debut.  Uh oh.  And by the way, perennial leading rider Corey Lanerie gets the call today.

$10 WIN #4 Shashashakemeup

5:00     4-Santa Anita     Maiden Special     51/2 furlongs 
A full field of twelve maidens, many with lots of opportunities and the field includes the 2-3-4 runners from the 3rd on May 29th at this level and distance.  I don't like anyone.

PASS

5:05     8-Belmont     The Lady Shipman     6f - TURF 
You can go a number of ways in the NY feature today but I like the chances of the outside drawn 11-Miss J McKay (5/2) who has yet to run a bad one on the turf.  She was a decisive winner in her first start on the turf, sprinting vs. winners for the first time in Monmouth's Colleen Stakes.  Drew off impressively then was a daylight winner in a Laurel turf sprint stake.  Came from off the pace and just missed in an Aqueduct 6f turf sprint in November while two plus clear of a next out winner.  Closed out her 2yo season with a 2nd in a dirt stake.  Now comes here off a break with sharp works and the ability to be close or mid-pack for jockey Jose Ortiz.

$5 WIN #11 Miss J McKay

5:18     9-Churchill     AOC nw3x     8f - TURF 
With the exception of her debut - excused because of traffic through the lane - when finishing 6th, but only 3 1/4 off the winner, 2-Tapit Today (8/5) has never run a bad race.  You can a clue as to just how highly regarded this 5yo daughter of Tapit is to her connections when you note that she was put on the shelf for SIXTEEN months and came back to win her first start in a second level allowance at Tampa by daylight.  Next time up she chased multiple graded stakes winner Starship Jubilee and came within a neck of second, which was held by her stakes winning stablemate Magic Star.  Trust me, there are no runners that compare with those two for this Chad Brown trainee.  That bullet move over the Palm Meadows turf three weeks ago tips her hand as being primed for a BIG shot today under Churchill's leading rider Tyler Gaffalione.  The BEST BET.

$30 WIN #2 Tapit Today

5:32     5-Santa Anita     Claiming nw2L      6 furlongs 
The favorite looks logical but I just don't like horses who plunge in class AND go into restricted races off a dull effort like the favorite ran last time out, albeit in a turf sprint.  Watching.

PASS

5:36     9-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     81/2 f - TURF 
A wide open finale where no one catches the eye.  But we'll shoot for a price play on a trainer angle.  Brad Cox, who normally is NOT in New York has been winning at a big clip (over 40% heading into Saturday's races) and he takes over the training today for 3-Shared Success (6/1) who's made three starts, all on the dirt.  Lures Joel Rosario and immediately stretches this colt out long AND goes to the turf while dropping in class - although you could argue that an open Finger Lakes MSW is on par with a state-bred $40K maiden claimer at Belmont.

$5 WIN #3 Shared Success

5:50     10-Churchill     Maiden Special     8 furlongs 
Last Friday I wrote for the Churchill Downs opener that you would rarely see me picking a runner like Drop Dead Gorgeous.  Why?  Because she was a 15x - yes fifteen - maiden.  But that race was set up for her in my opinion and she won in a runaway.  Flash forward to this spot where today may finally, FINALLY be the day for $625K Keeneland grad 1-Copper King (4/1) who's suffered eleven tough losses with NINE second or third place finishes.  His last last three figures - the best three numbers he's earned AND they're on the improve - beat every number on the page with one exception.  And the horse that earned that one figure came back last time to lose by 14 lengths.  Today's the day.

$10 WIN #1 Copper King

6:03     6-Santa Anita     Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano     14f - TURF 
It looks like 8-Ward 'n Jerry (6/5) will be a short price standout in here.  You KNOW that his last out race going a mile was simply a prep for this.  It gave him a race off the bench and now we're set to go.  Look down the past performances of this guy....the five races at a mile and a quarter or longer are ALL his best races including a win in the Gr 3 San Luis Rey and a just-miss in the Gr 2 Hollywood Turf Cup.  Flavian Prat rides today on Brad Free's BEST BET of the day.  Run to the window.

$15 WIN #8 Ward 'n Jerry

6:33     7-Santa Anita     The Melair     81/2 furlongs 

Hate to chalk out and there are reasons to doubt that 1-Big Sweep (6/5) can keep his unbeaten record intact, but not enough to sway me.  He's gone two-for-two with a wire win in his debut then an off the pace finish in his first try vs. winners, a state-bred stakes.  Goes two turns for the first time today and faces others who've already done that.  BUT....his figures are best and he's bred to love the added ground.  I also think top rider Flavian Prat sees what I see (and what Brad Free points out) - that he's the LONE SPEED.  Right to the front, saves all the ground and is long gone.

$10 WIN #1 Big Sweep

7:03     8-Santa Anita     Maiden Claiming     8f - TURF 

A wide open affair where there isn't anything to hang your hat on.  I'm not even going to guess.  Good time to have a late dinner.

PASS

7:33     9-Santa Anita     Maiden Claiming     61/2 furlongs 
6-Saving Sophie (5/2) figures to win but can't bet this 8x maiden who finished second three times in a row and has now run three dull races.

PASS

8:03     10-Santa Anita     Grade 3 American     8f - TURF 
8-Bowie's Hero (4/1) is 7-for-16 at this mile distance and is a multiple graded stakes winner.  Comes off a layoff and will have to deal with another talented runner in 5-Sharp Samurai (4/1) who's proven off the layoff, but has also finished behind the top one on multiple occasions.

$5 WIN #8 Bowie's Hero

8:33     11-Santa Anita     Maiden Special     61/2 furlongs 
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has been so impressed with 2-Provocation (5/2) that he nominated the $350K daughter of Into Mischief for a stakes last weekend.....as a first time starting maiden!  YOWZA.  She has drilled her morning works in company and with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith in the irons she looks really strong in here with a big future in front of her.

$15 WIN #2 Provocation

9:03     12-Santa Anita     AOC nw1x     8f - Turf 
A wide-open entry level allowance where you can make a case for and/or against most.  I've long since moved into the living room and am watching Jennifer Garner on Prime Video on her hot series, "Alias."

PASS

Belmont Stakes Week: Friday June 19

Today we'll be in Louisville and playing "at home" at Gulfstream with an eye towards the big day Saturday.  We'll have multiple tracks on the selection sheet for tomorrow!

12:00     1-Gulfstream     Maiden Special (2yo)     51/2 furlongs 

Three of the juvenile fillies in here could easily win as two of them were a good second in their debut earlier in the meet and the other was third.  Of those I would think that 3-Acting Lucky (7/2) would have the most right to improve as she stumbled out of the gate and still managed to get up for 2nd while running into a fast pace.  I am intrigued by first time starter 1-Fouzia (4/1) who is sent out by Saffie Joseph with Paco Lopez up.  The daughter of Sky Mesa has drilled her morning works including a best-of-forty three furlong bullet for this.  Not a fan of the rail draw while also giving up experience.

PASS

12:30     2-Gulfstream     Claiming nw3L     5f - TURF 

With an 80% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and then again Friday morning we'll make the primary selections for all turf races on the main track.  Before fully committing to the wager I'd want to see who stays in the body of the field to oppose 5-Dark Ages (9/2) on the main track.  Trained by Liz Dobles and ridden by Paco Lopez this 4yo gelding has several dirt tries with big figures...but note he hasn't won on the main track....but then hardly any of them have.  Turns back from two one mile events to this super sprint today.  On the turf 6-R Boy Evans (7/5) is hard to go past on the numbers.  His last four races have earned numbers that walk with this race.  A concern that they are headed in the wrong direction and that after Mike Maker laid out $30K for him, he plunges from a $30K beaten last time out to this $12.5K nw3L spot.

$5 WIN 5 Dark Ages (MAIN TRACK SELECTION)

1:00     1-Churchill     Starter Optional Claiming      6 furlongs 
The Friday opener in Louisville is a starter optional which requires runners to have been entered for $5K.  Here's the problem at this cheap level....they are remarkably, consistently inconsistent.  And such is the case here.  5-Irritator (5/2) ran two big races off class drops with big figures so when the 6yo did that last time he was the even money favorite facing 3-Strong Yen (3/1) and 1-Here's Carlos (7/2) on May 16.  But 'Yen won and Irritator was third.  Strong Yen came back off that big 82 Beyer win in an identical spot but going 7f and was the 7/5 favorite.  Stopped like he was shot behind 2-Dark Arden (7/2) and Here's Carlos.  So, who runs their race today?  Go figure.

PASS

1:02     3-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming (2yo)     5 furlongs 
Another juvenile head scratcher.  A couple with experience, but none that leap off the page.  And the first time starters don't come from outfits that are stellar with debut runners.  Nothing out of the ordinary.....looks like an "ALL" play in the multi-race or a wait and watch.

PASS

1:34     4-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming     61/2 furlongs 
The two favorites figure to decide this and of the two I've landed on 3-U S S Colton (3/1) for a couple of reasons.  First, unlike 8-R Ninja JK (9/5) he dueled on the front end and while the winner kicked on, he held second by daylight - meanwhile 'Ninja ran evenly without being on the lead; second, 'Colton faced a click higher level of maidens AND was turning back from a two-turn turf mile, so his speed was probably not as sharp as it could be....while 'Ninja was debuting, having been prepped for a sprint try against a click CHEAPER than he faces today.  And third, most importantly to me, is that jockey Emisael Jaramillo rod R Ninja JK in his debut and USS Colton in his two sprints and HE lands on USS Colton today.

$10 WIN #3 U S S Colton

1:34     2-Churchill     Claiming     81/2 furlongs 
Another cheap event, this for a straight nickel going two turns on the main track.  6-County Court (4/1) portrays the typical set of past performances in this event.  At first glance he's a BIG NO.  His last three starts produced losses by a combined 70+ lengths....yes, seventy in three races.  Then you scan down and note the ONLY two times today's jockey, Corey Lanerie was on board....HERE....came when he beat $25K runners and came right back to beat $50K runners.  Drops to the bottom today and gets back the last winning rider at a fair price.

$5 WIN #6 County Court

2:05     5-Gulfstream     Claiming nw2L     81/2 f - TURF 
MTO: 5-City Park (9/2) would have the obvious advantage on the dirt today, and he did run three good races over the main track at the Fair Grounds during their winter season.  Those were in open company, but to be fair they were in state-bred events.  How does a La-bred compare to an open $25K 2L at Gulfstream?  Still, he'd have a big advantage over a group that has little dirt form.  Has a race under his belt so to speak when completely distanced on the grass here in an open $50K optional claiming event.  On the grass I guess you'd lean to 4-Lookin At Roses (7/5) who drops a notch after being clearly best of the rest vs. $30K 2L turf runners.  Does it bother you as it does me that this loss was his FIFTH STRAIGHT loss in two-lifetime company - one them vs. cheaper $20K and three at this level.  Seems an awfully short price for a less than reliable pick.

$5 WIN MTO: 5 City Park

2:06     3-Churchill     Maiden Special (2yo)     5 furlongs 
Trainer Todd Pletcher has another string of runners stabled in Louisville and his 2yo son of Into Mischief, 8-Cousteau (2/1) appears to have found a good spot to debut.  A steady string of works dating back to mid-April at Keeneland, topped by four works over the main track here should have him ready to roll.  Like his draw much better than Steve Asmussen's 2-Jackie's Warrior (5/2) who has a sizzling bullet work over the Keeneland main for this debut.  But, what about the fact that not only is he drawn inside but has only three works?  Would seem he'd need more foundation to carry his speed, right?

$10 WIN #8 Cousteau

2:37     6-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x     8f - TURF 
Regardless of the surface, it looks like the rail draw for 1-My Point Exactly (3/1) would put him on the lead.  The question is if he gets pressure going two turns on the inner or at the one-turn mile on the main track.  It was that situation most recently when he opened up at this $20K level and led to the final strides before being run down by two horses, finishing third by a half.  The last time he ran in an off the turf it was the same story.  He IS a 9x winner on the grass locally.  4-Ambassador Jim (10/1) has odds that are WAY out of line on the turf when filtering out all by his two tries at this entry level allowance.  Drew clear in a state-bred with a big figure and in an open nw1x with an equally big figure.

PASS

2:38     4-Churchill     Allowance NC     5f - TURF 
I can't explain, other than say "that's horse racing" the results from the 9th race here May 28th under these same "no conditions" allowance turf sprint like this where the top five all run back today.  6-Morticia (8/5) was 5/2 that day and weakened to fourth when coming off a seven month layoff.  The first three were 8-Change of Control (7/2) who won at odds of 18-1; second was 3-Midnight Fantasy (9/2) who was 12/1;  third was 5-Miss Gossip (8/1) who was a whopping 63/1.  And behind Morticia was 7-Jo Jo Air (8/1) who left the gate at odds of nearly 8/1.  HAVE to figure some degree of "normalcy" prevails today, right?  The "new shooters" in today's race are all double digits in the program.

$10 WIN #6 Morticia

3:09     7-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming     6 furlongs 
Mixed feelings about 7-Double Advantage (5/2) who debuts for Todd Pletcher with summer go-to rider Edgard Zayas up.  On the one hand it IS a Pletcher 3yo, with good works, and owned by Michael Repole.  All of that, and the $180K Keeneland purchase price says he's legit.  BUT....why isn't he with the "first string" in New York, especially with Repole based in the Big Apple?  Two with experience are the main dangers - 4-Girolamo's Attack (5/1) showed front running speed after finishing a best-of-the-rest second in his debut.  And 5-R Uncle Eric (3/1) showed even quicker pace speed but faded to be 5th beaten 7 lengths by the colt that Girolamo held off in third.

$5 WIN #7 Double Advantage

3:10     5-Churchill     Maiden Claiming     8 furlongs 
I think the "most likely" winner is 1-Stripping (3/1) who makes her second career start today for trainer Brad Cox, a 26% winning angle.  The filly gets Florent Geroux back in the irons today after running 7th in her career debut going 6 1/2 furlongs.  While beaten ten and change, note the winner was more than eight clear of the runner-up.  It appears this was a good "first start," and with the stretch out and sharp works since she should run well.  Oh, and she goes MSW to MC $30K today and that is a 30% winning move for the barn.

$5 WIN #1 Stripping

3:41     8-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x (3yo)    5f - TURF
Regardless of the surface I LIKE the top choices in here from this corner.  Off the inner I think this race goes STRICTLY through 8-Fly On Angel (6/1) who's in the main body without ever having been on the grass.  Clearly the connections have seen hottie Erika Delgado and her forecast for showers throughout Thursday and Friday.  This sophomore daughter of multiple graded stakes winner Palace Malice won on debut.  Then in her first try vs. winners pressed the pace in entry level allowance like this before fading to fourth.  Came back in a Parx restricted stakes and was a just miss second.  Then blew the doors off of a nw1x AOC $50K event there when drawing off by nearly a dozen lengths.  Shipped to Laurel and ran in a stakes event where she dueled from the gate to mid-stretch, going the demanding seven furlongs and just failed to last (4th by 4).  Off a freshening, gets Paco Lopez and has a big bullet work for this.  On the turf, 9-Poseidon's Passion (4/1) broke her maiden on the dirt at Keeneland for a $30K tag.  Then won two in a row over the turf, first at Tampa and then here - both against entry level runners like this.  Last time out in an optional claiming event she had trouble.  With clear sailing she's the preferred filly on the inside course.

$10 WIN #8 Fly On Angel (Main Track)

$5 WIN #9 Poseidon's Passion (Turf)

3:42     6-Churchill     AOC nw2x     9f - TURF 
Today is probably a good time to take a stand against Chad Brown's 6-Voting Control (4/1) as this lightly raced five-year-old has not been seen since May of last spring.  WOW.  Or, maybe it's a good time to get on board.  The talented son of Kitten's Joy won his Belmont debut then was 2nd in the Grade 3 Pilgrim, beaten a half length while trying winners for the first time.  Came back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was third beaten a length and a half by future multiple graded stakes winner Mendellson.  That was November 2017.  Was not seen again until May 2 2019 when he showed up here in an entry level allowance.  Off for more than 18 months he was sent off as the 2/1 favorite and won going away.  Now comes another long break.  So BOTH times he was fresh he won.  Top barn, a long string of works and Tyler Gaffalione all say he can get the job done today to me.

$10 WIN #6 Voting Control

4:13     9-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x     5f - TURF 
On the inner course there are a lot, A LOT of ways to go.  And while it's far from a "lock" or even a "prime time" play I like MTO: 3-Silvery Enough (7/2) in here on the main track.  The roan gelding has paired 76 Beyers while winning two in a row on the main track.  The first came over the deep, sandy surface up at Tampa Bay Downs in a $50K starter optional claiming sprint, then followed that up with a close-from-the-back to daylight score here in an entry level sprint like this going six furlongs.  His ability to be up close or come from out of it gives jockey Cristian Torres options.

$10 WIN MTO #3 Silvery Enough

4:14     7-Churchill     Claiming nw2L     6 furlongs 
Two fillies are intriguing to me in here.  First, 3-One Step (3/1) makes her first start against winners in this her fifth career start.  After two MSW tries she dropped into a $50K Oaklawn event and was 4th.  Then dropped into a $30K spot and won for fun.  So this $20K 2L is a reasonable spot.  But what catches my eye is that she was claimed by Steve Hobby who's won 4-of-5 (80%) with first off the claim runners over the last two years.  Hmmmm.  The other is the program favorite, 7-Shilah Baby (5/2) who has the best numbers and her one win came in a move like today.....last time out turf sprint, then wins on the dirt.  I also like that she makes her first start for a tag and in conditioned company as well with top jockey Tyler G.  BUT.....she's been out TWELVE times and the barn is 0-for-10 at the meet and just 5-for-51 on the year.  Hmmmmmm, again.

PASS

4:46     8-Churchill     Allowance nw1x     7 furlongs 
Three of these lightly raced runners have earned an 80 Beyer (at least one) in their last race or two and I don't trust ANY of those numbers.  Two were earned by last out maiden winners and the other were two career best figures in 3rd and 4th place losses.  But I also don't see any likely winners among the others.  Go figure.

PASS

5:18     9-Churchill     Allowance nw1x     8f - TURF 
Chad Brown trains OXO Equine's $1.6 Million daughter of War Front, 1-Balon Rose (3/1) and you'd have to say - if you weren't a member of the ownership group - that she's been a disappointment at that price tag.  She was a good second over yielding ground at Belmont in her debut.  Then was a well beaten 7th at Saratoga going a marathon distance.  Back to back mile and a sixteenth tries produced two near misses, when second again both times.  Then she went today's mile and was finally a winner in her fifth start.  Brown sent her to Gulfstream to run in the Tropical Park Oaks where she ran evenly all the way around, never close or a threat.  Back down to this entry level allowance she SHOULD win if she's got just some of the perceived talent the connections paid for.

$10 WIN #1 Balon Rose

Belmont Stakes Week: Thursday June 18

Today we move to New York for a single card of racing......

1:15     1-Belmont     Maiden Special     81/2 furlongs 

The question that is prominent in the Thursday opener is simply, does 1-Sneer (5/2) run back to her two back try at a one-turn mile today or not.  Because if she does, simply put, the rest are running for second money.  That afternoon she dueled on the lead, survived the race-long duel and just missed holding of a talented runner in Pleasant Orb.  The Into Mischief filly turned back to seven furlongs in her next and it appears that she did not care for the sloppy going.  Add in a break where she was not away cleanly and was chasing from the get-go and you COULD draw a line through that race.  Her debut at this distance, albeit around two turns at Tampa, was also excellent when just missing in second.  Finally, with a Todd Pletcher runner in the field, the fact that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez rides HERE for the first time may be key.  Pletcher's 4-Thankful (4/1) keeps Luis Saez and you cannot use her debut as a gauge for how the $625K daughter of champion American Pharoah will run.  Two turns on turf where she trailed throughout gives no indication of what kind of talent she may or may not have.  Almost like having a firster, but with some experience.  6-So Darn Hot (2/1) has run third twice, the most recent on turf.  Wouldn't be a surprise, but I don't think she's worthy of being the top choice.

$5 WIN #1 Sneer

1:50     2-Belmont     Claiming nw2L     8 furlongs 

Much like the opener, the second is all about if you believe ML favorite 5-Invest (8/5) runs back to his two Aqueduct one-turn mile tries.  If so he is long, LONG gone.  So the facts are these..... it's a big worrisome that the Super Saver 4yo has already been out nine times with but one win and SIX second or third finishes.  It's also discouraging that at this one-mile trip he's started five times and run second in FOUR of them.  Ouch.  And about now you're thinking, why am I interested here?  Well, here's why - six of the nine starts were in MSW and allowance company and the most recent was in a $50K starter allowance.  In his third start he dominated an Aqueduct MSW at this one-turn mile distance and earned a Beyer of 77.  But despite being well clear he was DQ'd.  Came right back to win here at Belmont in a 6f sprint.  Under Gary Contessa's care he stepped up off a third at Laurel going two turns for this $16K 2L level to a $25K 2L one-turn mile and ran a career best 83 when beaten by 2 1/4 lengths but he was eighteen and a half ahead of the show runner....yes, 18 lengths.  Moved into that starter allowance sprinting and showed speed to the stretch before fading to fifth.  Now for the first time under Brad Cox's care he drops into a $16K 2L level and back to this one-turn mile.  Jose Ortiz rides for a barn winning at a big 56%.

$10 WIN #5 Invest

2:23     3-Belmont     Maiden Special (2yo)     5 furlongs 

None of these fillies have yet to make a start so we're guessing.  Christophe Clement winning at a 27% with first time starters, but Mike Beer of DRF writes he's only 14% with 2yo firsters on the dirt.  Still, 2-Kokopelli (5/2) ,the daughter of Into Mischief looks good.  Not a fan of the rail draw however.

PASS

2:55     4-Belmont     Claiming     81/2 furlongs 
If you adhere to the "winners win races," then 1-Chief Know It All (2/1) is your horse in here.  He's won five of his last six, all at or about this level.  The one loss came when he stepped up into a $32K claimer.  The others were $12K to $16K at a mile or longer.  But his Beyers don't stand out, so I've got questions.

PASS

3:27     5-Belmont     Claiming nw3L     7f - TURF 
The only time 9-Shiraz (2/1) ran in a restricted race it was washed off the turf, so let's toss that.  As I've said before in regards to Belmont turf races, finding the winner at this seven furlong trip nearly always requires finding someone who's run well at this distance.  And Shiraz has run well TWICE at this distance.  A sharp 2nd, missing by a half length in a state-bred, 2nd level allowance and the other time a close third (missed by 1 1/4) in an OPEN entry level allowance.  Mike Maker with Luis Saez, on a runner who's never run in for a tag, much less a restricted one, on the turf.  With big numbers and a good post WITH experience at the trip.  Should this move to the main track MTO: 11-Frank'sgunisloaded (7/5) is a standout.  Paired Beyers (87-88) against open allowance runners, with a two back decisive win in a one-turn mile.  Manny Franco for Danny Gargan wins for fun on the dirt at a very short price.

$15 WIN #9 Shiraz

$15 WIN MTO: 11-Frank'sgunisloaded

3:59     6-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     6 furlongs 
A dozen runners in for a $40K tag and they have all kinds of running lines - some on turf, some not.  Very little experience sprinting on turf and next to none at this trip.  Way too many questions.

PASS

4:32     7-Belmont     AOC nw2x     81/2 furlongs 
Drawn on the rail as what looks like the LONE speed, 1-It's All Relevant (9/5) looks exceptionally dangerous in here.  He's already won a second level allowance, so he's running for the requisite tag of $62.5K.  Gets a weight break with the apprentice in the irons, who was on board for the most recent win going nine furlongs.  The six victories have come by a combined nearly 25 lengths as he dominated the competition.  And if someone else insists on the lead, no problem he can press the leaders and blow by.  Just a bit of anxiousness about the two dismal efforts in the streak where inexplicably he just gave it up.  But, even Mike Beer, a "value player" if there ever was one is on board here.

$10 WIN #1 It's All Relevant

5:04     8-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     8f - TURF 
Talk about a wild scramble!  Entry level allowance events are typically difficult but in here you've got a last out debut winner (from Tampa) and a 20+ time starter who's yet to win the entry level allowance condition.  Got lightly raced runners who went from maiden win to stakes action and you've got veteran claimers.  It's the prototype of a first level allowance where it's a "pick 'em."

PASS

5:36     9-Belmont     The Critical Eye Stakes     8 furlongs 
The two favorites should decide the outcome of today's featured stakes event, the Critical Eye.  It's a classic match-up between proven ability vs. an up and coming filly with loads of potential.  For me, while the price may be a click or two better on Chad Brown's improving miss, it's just really hard to ignore that Graham Motion's 2-Ratajowski (1/1) has (a) won at four different distance, (b) has won a stakes like this, (c) drops out of a pace-setting and fade-to-fourth in a Gr 2 around two turns for this one-turn mile, and most especially (d) is a sharp 4/3-0-1 here at Belmont.  With the inside draw and coming off a layoff look for her to shoot to the front under Jose Ortiz.  5-More Mischief (9/5) would not be a surprise.  The $350K daughter of Into Mischief has won two in a row at this trip, the latest a stakes event similar to this, with numbers that are comparable.  Manny Franco should have her chasing the top one and then it's a question of which filly is better, today.  They have a common foe (who's in here given a 5/1 chance) .... that one fell by 10 plus to the top choice and more than five to 'Mischief.

$10 WIN #2 Ratajowski

6:08     10-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     6f - TURF 
The program favorite is a FOURTEEN time maiden with six slices.  No.  The other eleven in here have a combined 4 races on the grass.  Go figure.  See you tomorrow!

PASS