We conclude the week, and the first month of summer by visiting Grand Prairie, Texas and playing the races at Lone Star Park.
4:05 1-Lone Star Maiden Claiming 7 furlongs
The Sunday opener is a cheap $7.5K maiden event going the demanding seven furlong distance. The par figure for this level of competition is only 39 and the two most prominent win candidates have exceeded that par in a recent start - that's a good sign. 5-Texas Rain (3/1) has run Beyers of 53-41-49 in her last three starts, the 49 coming most recently in a 6f race off the break HERE. She was a well beaten third, but was daylight clear of the other nine runners despite breaking 10th of eleven. The big question is what to make of Steve Asmussen's 4-Minji (5/2) who earned a "solid" 45 in her Oaklawn debut when a pace-setting and weaken-to-third for a $25K tag. Came right back at that level and stopped like she was shot finishing 11th beaten more than 25 lengths. Which filly do we get today?
PASS
4:35 2-Lone Star Maiden Claiming 5f - TURF
Mixed feelings about favored 4-Vaya Con Dios (5/2) but enough of an edge to dip in for a minimum play. Bothersome that the 3yo gelding has already been out NINE times with six slices. And six of the losses have come for a tag. But on the upside, he's only been in a turf sprint once and ran against more competitive rivals at Churchill Downs while earning a 62 Beyer in a best-of-the-rest second finish. Sent out by top conditioner Robertino Diodoro who shows a near 30% strike rate with runners off of a similar short break. Helps that on this strong card with stakes races later in the day this is the DRF "Best" of the day and also Rick Lee's top choice. Ok, I'll string along....
5:05 3-Lone Star Allowance nw1x 8 furlongs
Half the figures earned by favored 6-Mucho Dinero (8/5) would win this race, and you have to like that he comes off a solid second in the Star of Texas stakes two weeks ago. Conversely, in fifteen starts he's 15/1-4-3. Ouch. But, the entire field is made up of one-time winners including the coupled entry from Karl Broberg where 1-Best Little Man (2/1) is 7/1-1-2 and 1a-Tommytoshort (2/1) is 16/1-7-5. Wouldn't be surprised to see a big payout upset with a "go figure" winner.
5:35 4-Lone Star Claiming 51/2 furlongs
In a race where most runners for the nickel price tag have very few wins, 11-Toasting Master (9/2) is a THIRTEEN time winner (with eleven runner-up finishes). Claimed out of the 8yo gelding's final start at Sam Houston he was entered here off a four month break in a starter where he could not be claimed. It's appealing to me that the barn would lay out money for an eight-year-old and then enters him where he cannot be taken first time out. Showed speed while dueling into the lane before giving way. The outside draw should allow a tracking trip and give him every opportunity to pay off dividends to the new connections.
6:07 5-Lone Star The Lone Star Park Turf 8f - TURF
In the allowance prep for this stakes event - from which FIVE of that field return, including the top three finishers - 3-Curlin's Journey (5/2) got an ideal set-up to close down favored 4-Quebec (2/1) who pressed the front, took over but could not hold off the late charge of the winner. I'm not a handicapper who gives weight a lot of consideration but noting how close the top three were, the fact that the winner somehow gets WEIGHT off (four pounds) might be helpful. And as much as you can make a case for the beaten favorite, it looks like a nearly identical pace scenario is going to develop and allow Curlin's Journey (who is graded stakes placed) to finish off the field yet again.
6:37 6-Lone Star Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
A bulky field of FOURTEEN runners are in this $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime sprint. And thirteen of them have lost at this level or lower (most multiple times). But Steve Asmussen's 4-Winter Wolf (3/1) has only been out seven times. And he ran a good 2nd against $25K 2L, then has run third in back-to-back nw2L for a $15K tag. Drops in with veteran Stewart Elliot in the irons. Should press the pace from the inside and run away through the lane.
7:07 7-Lone Star The Grand Prairie Derby (3yo) 81/2 furlongs
Steve Asmussen's stakes placed colt, 2-Little Menace (8/5) has never been beyond six furlongs but he is bred for the distance and Asmussen wins with 21% of his stretch out runners. Four straight big numbers and a sharp bullet work should put him up close if not on the lead. He's the consensus pick by the public handicappers and will certainly be the public choice. He's the one to catch and the one to beat as "Lee's Lock" of the day.
7:37 8-Lone Star The Lone Star Mile 8 furlongs
It looks like there will be a contested pace in here and that only adds to the appeal of multiple graded stakes winner 7-Mocito Rojo (9/2) who will be tracking the leaders from mid-pack and finishing with a flourish. The only concern is often when it appears on paper that the pace flow will be contested like this one someone shoots to the front and everyone else figures "someone" will go with them, and they don't, leading to a wire-to-wire winner. But be that as it may, there's still a LOT to like about the top pick here. He exits a key race at the Fair Grounds and has worked sharply for this, including a best of thirty-six bullet move recently. But in addition to the pace flow appeal, and class appeal, it's very encouraging that at this one-mile trip Mocito Rojo is 10/7-1-1 and has banked more than half his career earnings at the trip ($400K of $800K). I think he's a very solid choice in here.
8:07 9-Lone Star Maiden Special 5f - TURF
9-Robo (5/2) came off the bench and moved from state-bred MSW runners to OPEN MSW rivals while trying the turf for the first time. The 3yo gelding drew the rail that day and had to work out a trip from behind horses, but did so, finishing strongly to be second at odds of 33/1. Now second off the bench, a near 30% win angle for the barn, he brings the best Beyer on the page to the table and should get an ideal tracking trip from mid-pace before graduating by daylight. Would be nice to close out the day, the week, and the month of June with a winner, eh?
$5 WIN #4 Vaya Con Dios
5:05 3-Lone Star Allowance nw1x 8 furlongs
Half the figures earned by favored 6-Mucho Dinero (8/5) would win this race, and you have to like that he comes off a solid second in the Star of Texas stakes two weeks ago. Conversely, in fifteen starts he's 15/1-4-3. Ouch. But, the entire field is made up of one-time winners including the coupled entry from Karl Broberg where 1-Best Little Man (2/1) is 7/1-1-2 and 1a-Tommytoshort (2/1) is 16/1-7-5. Wouldn't be surprised to see a big payout upset with a "go figure" winner.
PASS
5:35 4-Lone Star Claiming 51/2 furlongs
In a race where most runners for the nickel price tag have very few wins, 11-Toasting Master (9/2) is a THIRTEEN time winner (with eleven runner-up finishes). Claimed out of the 8yo gelding's final start at Sam Houston he was entered here off a four month break in a starter where he could not be claimed. It's appealing to me that the barn would lay out money for an eight-year-old and then enters him where he cannot be taken first time out. Showed speed while dueling into the lane before giving way. The outside draw should allow a tracking trip and give him every opportunity to pay off dividends to the new connections.
$5 WIN #11 Toasting Master
6:07 5-Lone Star The Lone Star Park Turf 8f - TURF
In the allowance prep for this stakes event - from which FIVE of that field return, including the top three finishers - 3-Curlin's Journey (5/2) got an ideal set-up to close down favored 4-Quebec (2/1) who pressed the front, took over but could not hold off the late charge of the winner. I'm not a handicapper who gives weight a lot of consideration but noting how close the top three were, the fact that the winner somehow gets WEIGHT off (four pounds) might be helpful. And as much as you can make a case for the beaten favorite, it looks like a nearly identical pace scenario is going to develop and allow Curlin's Journey (who is graded stakes placed) to finish off the field yet again.
$10 WIN #3 Curlin's Journey
6:37 6-Lone Star Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
A bulky field of FOURTEEN runners are in this $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime sprint. And thirteen of them have lost at this level or lower (most multiple times). But Steve Asmussen's 4-Winter Wolf (3/1) has only been out seven times. And he ran a good 2nd against $25K 2L, then has run third in back-to-back nw2L for a $15K tag. Drops in with veteran Stewart Elliot in the irons. Should press the pace from the inside and run away through the lane.
$15 WIN #4 Winter Wolf
7:07 7-Lone Star The Grand Prairie Derby (3yo) 81/2 furlongs
Steve Asmussen's stakes placed colt, 2-Little Menace (8/5) has never been beyond six furlongs but he is bred for the distance and Asmussen wins with 21% of his stretch out runners. Four straight big numbers and a sharp bullet work should put him up close if not on the lead. He's the consensus pick by the public handicappers and will certainly be the public choice. He's the one to catch and the one to beat as "Lee's Lock" of the day.
$15 WIN #2 Little Menace
7:37 8-Lone Star The Lone Star Mile 8 furlongs
It looks like there will be a contested pace in here and that only adds to the appeal of multiple graded stakes winner 7-Mocito Rojo (9/2) who will be tracking the leaders from mid-pack and finishing with a flourish. The only concern is often when it appears on paper that the pace flow will be contested like this one someone shoots to the front and everyone else figures "someone" will go with them, and they don't, leading to a wire-to-wire winner. But be that as it may, there's still a LOT to like about the top pick here. He exits a key race at the Fair Grounds and has worked sharply for this, including a best of thirty-six bullet move recently. But in addition to the pace flow appeal, and class appeal, it's very encouraging that at this one-mile trip Mocito Rojo is 10/7-1-1 and has banked more than half his career earnings at the trip ($400K of $800K). I think he's a very solid choice in here.
$15 WIN #7 Mocito Rojo
8:07 9-Lone Star Maiden Special 5f - TURF
9-Robo (5/2) came off the bench and moved from state-bred MSW runners to OPEN MSW rivals while trying the turf for the first time. The 3yo gelding drew the rail that day and had to work out a trip from behind horses, but did so, finishing strongly to be second at odds of 33/1. Now second off the bench, a near 30% win angle for the barn, he brings the best Beyer on the page to the table and should get an ideal tracking trip from mid-pace before graduating by daylight. Would be nice to close out the day, the week, and the month of June with a winner, eh?
$10 WIN #9 Robo
No comments:
Post a Comment