Wednesday June 17
Well, you don't typically see the Belmont run at the end of June, nor at a mile and an eighth, nor BEFORE both the Derby and the Preakness. But we're fortunate that racing has found a way to have a Triple Crown, of sorts. The Belmont week kicks off as we visit to racing venues I've been fortunate enough to visit recently - Delaware Park and Canterbury Park. The former was part of my "Track Trip" last summer where my buddy Keith and I visited three tracks (Monmouth, Delaware, and Laurel) in three days. The latter was the home track for my late buddy Jim Anderson. He and I would meet often at Gulfstream until he and his wife Stephanie moved to Minnesota, where he was from originally, to be closer to his family. I went to visit him for a weekend of racing and we enjoyed two days at Canterbury. Today BOTH tracks offer stakes races as part of our own "Belmont Racing Festival." Here we go.....
1:15 1-Delaware Starter Allowance 8 furlongs
Two very likely win candidates square off in the Wednesday opener and you can make a strong case for either. 1-General Paddy (6/1) gets my nod in a close call because he's run here at Delaware with strong success (3-for-6) and at this distance (12/4-2-1). I like that in his last six starts, since December he's faced much stronger company in four of them ..... was second beaten 2 1/4 in a $16K starter handicap, then fourth beaten three lengths in a much tougher $30K starter handicap. Also ran third and fourth in a second level allowance. In the other two starts the 5yo ran in a starter optional claiming event with this same $8K requirement and aired in both - drawing off by first by three plus and then by nearly a dozen. Also like that his running style is a stalking one, which plays into the anticipated race flow here. Conversely, how do you argue with 2-Luvinmeiseasy (7/2) who's won eight of his last ten - yes, 8. And the last four by a combined 20+ lengths. His Beyers match up but most of his races have come at this level or cheaper. Would be no surprise to see him draw off, but prefer the top one.
1:45 2-Delaware Allowance nw2L (3yo) 6 furlongs
Kudos to Delaware who, unlike So Fla track/casino partnerships, uses a big chunk of their money to enhance purses. This non-winners of two lifetime event for 3yo under allowance conditions carries a rich $42,000 purse! 8-Cyril's Boy (6/1) drew off at first asking at the Fair Grounds vs. $45K rivals. That earned a good 78 Beyer figure. Since has run a 73 when fourth in an open nw1x first vs. winners, a 71 when fourth over sloppy going when moving to Oaklawn in a sprint. Then last time out improved to a 78 figure when pressing the pace, then taking the lead in the lane going a two turn mile, only to weaken to fourth in mid-April in Hot Springs. Shows a best of twenty-one bullet work over the local surface for today. 4-Marvin (7/2) clearly runs the most consistently fast races as he's posted five straight efforts with a number of either 83 or 84. BUT after airing in his second start at Hawthorne, vs. MSW rivals, he's run second in four straight after a third first time vs. winners. It's concerning that those losses came by a neck, a nose, 2 1/2, 1 1/2, and a neck. Interesting that he is trained by the same conditioner who trains the top one. 6-Dreams Unfold (9/2) earned the field's best figure when beating Parx MSW rivals by 14 and change, getting an 89. BUT that came over sloppy going - was it the surface? Too many questions.
2:15 3-Delaware Maiden Special 8f - TURF
It IS possible that the winner here could be one of the debut runners, but it appears to me that the one to beat will be 2-La Babia (4/1) who's been out six times already. Right on the cusp of a "toss" for me, but I'll dismiss the latest in a rained-off event going nine furlongs; I'm also willing to forgive his two starts as a juvenile. That leaves three MSW tries at Gulfstream which were all good efforts....a good 2nd off the bench, then a third - and both of those came during the Championship Meet - followed by a career best Beyer when 4th beaten just 1 3/4 lengths on April 2nd. Jockey Eric Gonzalez is winning at a 30% clip for the year and has only been on five horses for this barn over the last two years, winning with THREE at an ROI of $9.72! Of the firsters, 11-Estival (12/1) is interesting to me. Son of quality runner Summer Front, he's trained by Graham Motion and will be ridden by Trevor McCarthy today.
2:45 4-Delaware AOC nw2x 6 furlongs
I get your reluctance to take a short price on 7-She's Achance Too (2/1) in here, but if you're going to play the races at Delaware today most everyone you're looking at is coming off a layoff like this. So either you accept that or you don't and you're not playing much. I don't mind the layoff here. What I like, and like VERY much is that this 6yo mare is 6-for-20 over all, and of those she's 6-for-14 at this distance! Look down her pp's.....her last SIX starts at this 3/4 of a mile trip were ALL WINS, and NONE by less than two lengths. She runs for the $25K tag because she's won at this level twice already. Been away since October, but the one layoff line of similar length where she returned on the dirt at this trip resulted in a daylight score. An added bonus she's won over this track as well.
3:15 5-Delaware Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
The first thing that LEAPS off the page is the cheap $5K tag for these maidens. And the first scan of the pp's shows that the nine with experience were beaten a combined 108 lengths in their most recent. Now add in that they all come from different levels, distances, tracks, and surfaces. You're guessing here. Best advice is to go 7-ALL in a double using She's Achance Too, or similar in playing a Pick-3, etc. No straight up win bets here my friend.
3:45 6-Delaware Allowance nw1x 71/2 f - TURF
Obviously I'd much prefer to see 12-Motataabeq (4/1) with a more inward post, but you get what you get here with the favorite. Several encouraging angles in his favor. This Shadwell runner immediately improved in his second start when getting on the turf from a 28 BSF to a 75, that coming vs. NYRA maiden specials in September. Off until early December he scored at Gulfstream for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin at a big 6/1 price. Came back with two starts at this entry level allowance condition and ran nearly identical numbers..... 79 for the win and back-to-back 80's for the losses at the level. Moved to the Michael Pino barn when McLaughlin retired from training to become a jockey agent for Luis Saez and since that last run this $450K son of City Zip has worked sharply for the new connections. Two near bullets in April, then three maintenance works, and topped off with a best-of-54 bullet move for today's return to the races. Have to be encouraged that the maiden win came when also widely drawn. Are you willing to accept the two big Beyers earned by 2-Skol Factor (5/1) when narrowly beaten (2nd a neck) and a dominant win - both at Oaklawn on the main track. Those two figures, 83-82, would be ultra-competitive here and his Tomlinsons say he'll enjoy the added ground and grass. The barn just 5% from 59 starters off a layoff like this AND then there is the fact that he's not only going two turns for the first time, and grass for the first time, but also facing winners at a new track for the first time. Would have to be awfully good to overcome all that.
4:15 7-Delaware Claiming nw3L 1m/70
Much like Race 5, the first thing to catch the eye is the cheap $6.25K price tag, coupled with the restricted "non-winners of three lifetime" condition. BUT, while I typically do NOT like to play last out winners of nw2L on the rise to nw3L, 2-Revolutionary Mary (2/1) saw her Beyer leap forward when stretched to a mile trip two back when she won her maiden at Penn National. Came right back against winners at a mile and ran nearly the same number, actually a click better. Those two figures of 55 and 56 won't win any Breeders' Cup events, but they beat all 126 combined dirt tries by her rivals today. Have to be a Beyer believer, which I am. Note the barn clicking at 27% on the year and also a big 33% of the 24 starters off breaks like this one has score. So I'll jump on board.
4:45 8-Delaware The Obeah Stakes 81/2 furlongs
Well if the 14/1 upset by She's A Julie taught us anything last Saturday it's that trainer Steve Asmussen doesn't ship his quality runners out of town for stakes events unless he's serious about what he thinks their chances are. And it appears to me that he's got the class of the field in today's featured event, the Obeah which is the prep for the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap. 4-Lady Apple (7/2) will be even money or less when she leaves the gate today due to her EIGHT STRAIGHT graded appearances, half of which were winning efforts. Going back to her maiden win in early February 2019, I think you can make legitimate excuses for the four losses dotted through the half dozen victories. After winning her maiden in a 6f maiden sprint at Oaklawn she repeated in a two-lifetime race going today's mile and a sixteenth. And followed that with a win in the Grade 3 Fantasy. Next stop was Churchill Downs and the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Over her head? I wouldn't say so as she ran third that day at 10/1 odds. Came back to win the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks before trying a mile and a quarter in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. Completely outrun by sensational Dunbar Road in the goo, she bounced back with a win in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks. Off from September to late January she made her 4yo seasonal debut with a win in the Grade 3 Houston Lady's Classic. She was outrun in the Grade 2 Azeri and I think that's explained by the sloppy going - the only other time she ran in the slop she was buried (in the Alabama). Last time out she was well beaten in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and there I'd say it was as much the fact that she was in post 13 of 14 runners as the level of competition. Look at the first call.....in her previous six starts at 9f or less she was only more than three lengths back at the first call once when four back. But in the Apple Blossom she was 12th some 19 lengths off the pace. Toss that. She's the class of the field and she's 5-for-7 at today's distance. Just 1-for-7 at all other distances, she should score handily here. The one other that deserves at least a look-see is Brad Cox's 7-Vault (6/1) who entices Florent Geroux to make the trip to the northeast today. She makes just her third start for Cox since transferring to his barn and she's paired figures of 84-85. A move forward here while third off the shelf gives her an upset chance.
5:15 9-Delaware Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Just watching here....the best figures showing are owned by a 10x maiden had to drop to maiden 16 and 20 to earn those numbers and now steps back up for $25K. The Scott Lake entry probably goes favored and one of those two probably wins. Not for me however.
5:35 1-Canterbury Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
The Minnesota opener should be decided between the two morning line favorites. 6-Biscottini (3/1) ships in from Golden Gates Fields and their synthetic surface. Broke slowly and still was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in an open MSW. "Dropped" into a state-bred and was beaten a neck when second. Changes barns, ships halfway across the country and moves onto real dirt. The barn is 21% with new acquisitions and the horse has a solid work over the Canterbury main. 8-Golden Lily (2/1) has three Beyer figures that win here, earned on "real dirt" for a tag at Oaklawn, more expensive than the $16K they are all in for today.
5:45 10-Delaware Claiming 8 furlongs
For me, the consistently inconsistency of cheap claimers is hard to take under any circumstances, but in the Delaware finale we're looking at non-winners of a race since mid-December in for the cheapest of tags, just $4K. You don't risk a runner for that cheap on the drop down who has talent, so I'm suspicious of all the class droppers. And the rest just don't like to win.
6:04 2-Canterbury The 10,000 Lakes Stakes 6 furlongs
It's a horse race and we've certainly seen "sure things" at miniscule odds fail to deliver. But it's hard to envision anyone but 1-Mr. Jagermeister (2/5) winning in here. Nearly every factor lines up in his favor today. His two back 97 Beyer when second in Oaklawn's Hot Springs behind multiple graded stakes winning, horse-for-the-course Whitmore (who came right back to beat Mr. Jagermeister in the Grade 3 Count Fleet last time out), and his 98 Beyer when winning Turf Paradise Park's Phoenix Gold Cup will win this by half the length of the stretch. In addition, at today's six furlong trip the favorite is 7-for-14, and over the Canterbury main track he's an astounding 7-for-8 with one second place finish. Drops out of an open Gr 3 and two open sprint stakes for this restricted stakes event today and if you scan his past performances he's run in restricted company only twice with a win by 5 1/4 lengths and 4 1/4 lengths. Does he really love it here? How about his first local work to prepare for this - a best of 46 blistering bullet move. Oh. And wait.....with the rail draw he is the only, THE ONLY front runner in the field. OH - squared. 3-Hot Shot Kid (3/1) would be the beneficiary if one of the other three go with the favorite and make him go too fast early. The 'Kid is 11-for-15 at Canterbury and won this very stakes event last year, albeit with a Beyer double digits slower than a typical winning effort from the favorite. He's the "most likely" alternative, but really hard to envision that happening.
6:33 3-Canterbury Claiming 8 furlongs
The conditions of this "beaten" $10K claimer are interesting, "....for non-winners of two or Minnesota-breds that have not won thre...." The only two from the Golden Gopher state (with two wins already) are outsiders - one from a barn that's 2-for-34 in 2020 and the other hasn't won since at least the summer of 2018. That makes the situation more appealing to go with 3-Whata Show Off (3/1) who earned a 75 Beyer winning his maiden HERE at this trip and a 78 at Keeneland in a MSW event. BOTH of those however came on the off-going. Hmmmm. Would be more appealing if it rains in Minnesota, don'tchaknow? Lack of any early gas in here makes the pace scenario sketchy and that could lead to an upset.
7:02 4-Canterbury Claiming 5 furlongs
Oh that $4K claiming tag and the restriction which lures the "beaten" tag that this is for "...non winners of a race in 2020...." all make picking her difficult. But, top conditioner Robertino Diodoro sends out 3-Saved By Zero (3/1) who's piled up six wins and fifteen exacta finishes while never running for this cheap. We'll know before they've gone the opening quarter mile if he's a legitimate favorite because to win he'll want to take them coast to coast and there's other speed outside of him. He posted four wins in 2019 and wired them all - against better. And he's only been out once in 2020, in a turf sprint.
8:00 6-Canterbury The Lady Slipper Stakes 6 furlongs
A year ago May 18th, Canterbury hosted this stakes event and ALL FIVE runners from that event come back for the 2020 renewal, with three new shooters to the party. 4-Ari Gia (3/1) was the 9/5 favorite that evening and was a decisive winner. Hard to imagine any of the four that chased her then have improved enough to make up that ground. The concern is that Ari Gia will want the front and a couple of the new shooters also have speed. On pace figures it's not hard to imagine she'll be the speed of the speed, open up on the turn and win comfortably. If pressed and/or forced to go too fast early, you could make a case for lightly raced 3-Clickbait (9/2) who's one of the newcomers. She's only been out three times and the two vs. restricted company were blow out wins. Her last was off the bench off a seven month break, and she dueled early before settling for a best of the rest 2nd place finish in an open Oaklawn sprint. It's tough to make comparisons and there is the time element involved, but the two have a mutual defeated foe and the favorite was four plus additional lengths clear of that commonly faced filly.
8:29 7-Canterbury AOC nw1x 8f - TURF
2-First Hunter (7/2) is a 7x turf winner locally and one of those showing in her pp's is a stakes race vs. restricted company. But she's also lost in a $12.5K open claimer here. Has changed barns and her regular rider from last year when she was winning is on another. Watching only.
8:58 8-Canterbury AOC / C 8 furlongs
Several ways to go in this conditioned allowance which has multiple layers of who can run under what circumstance, none of which seems to provide the key to picking the winner. 4-Gato Guapo (4/1) may be overlooked after running second to the rail runner. But note that 'Gato was six-wide at 2/1 odds while the winner had a smoother trip to upset the race at 25/1 odds. Run twice here, the last a 2nd place effort in an open stakes. Gets one of the top local riders. 9-Chris and Dave (3/1) the one I WANT to like, but having a hard time getting past the single win on the page and lots of slices. The DRF choice is 7-United Patriot (10/1) who could surprise off a bullet work and Beyers as good as anyone else in here, but finished behind Chris and Dave three times when that one was just hitting the board.
Races 9 and 10 are quarter horse-like two-year-old trial events....do people really bet those?
Two very likely win candidates square off in the Wednesday opener and you can make a strong case for either. 1-General Paddy (6/1) gets my nod in a close call because he's run here at Delaware with strong success (3-for-6) and at this distance (12/4-2-1). I like that in his last six starts, since December he's faced much stronger company in four of them ..... was second beaten 2 1/4 in a $16K starter handicap, then fourth beaten three lengths in a much tougher $30K starter handicap. Also ran third and fourth in a second level allowance. In the other two starts the 5yo ran in a starter optional claiming event with this same $8K requirement and aired in both - drawing off by first by three plus and then by nearly a dozen. Also like that his running style is a stalking one, which plays into the anticipated race flow here. Conversely, how do you argue with 2-Luvinmeiseasy (7/2) who's won eight of his last ten - yes, 8. And the last four by a combined 20+ lengths. His Beyers match up but most of his races have come at this level or cheaper. Would be no surprise to see him draw off, but prefer the top one.
$5 WIN #1 General Paddy
1:45 2-Delaware Allowance nw2L (3yo) 6 furlongs
Kudos to Delaware who, unlike So Fla track/casino partnerships, uses a big chunk of their money to enhance purses. This non-winners of two lifetime event for 3yo under allowance conditions carries a rich $42,000 purse! 8-Cyril's Boy (6/1) drew off at first asking at the Fair Grounds vs. $45K rivals. That earned a good 78 Beyer figure. Since has run a 73 when fourth in an open nw1x first vs. winners, a 71 when fourth over sloppy going when moving to Oaklawn in a sprint. Then last time out improved to a 78 figure when pressing the pace, then taking the lead in the lane going a two turn mile, only to weaken to fourth in mid-April in Hot Springs. Shows a best of twenty-one bullet work over the local surface for today. 4-Marvin (7/2) clearly runs the most consistently fast races as he's posted five straight efforts with a number of either 83 or 84. BUT after airing in his second start at Hawthorne, vs. MSW rivals, he's run second in four straight after a third first time vs. winners. It's concerning that those losses came by a neck, a nose, 2 1/2, 1 1/2, and a neck. Interesting that he is trained by the same conditioner who trains the top one. 6-Dreams Unfold (9/2) earned the field's best figure when beating Parx MSW rivals by 14 and change, getting an 89. BUT that came over sloppy going - was it the surface? Too many questions.
PASS
2:15 3-Delaware Maiden Special 8f - TURF
It IS possible that the winner here could be one of the debut runners, but it appears to me that the one to beat will be 2-La Babia (4/1) who's been out six times already. Right on the cusp of a "toss" for me, but I'll dismiss the latest in a rained-off event going nine furlongs; I'm also willing to forgive his two starts as a juvenile. That leaves three MSW tries at Gulfstream which were all good efforts....a good 2nd off the bench, then a third - and both of those came during the Championship Meet - followed by a career best Beyer when 4th beaten just 1 3/4 lengths on April 2nd. Jockey Eric Gonzalez is winning at a 30% clip for the year and has only been on five horses for this barn over the last two years, winning with THREE at an ROI of $9.72! Of the firsters, 11-Estival (12/1) is interesting to me. Son of quality runner Summer Front, he's trained by Graham Motion and will be ridden by Trevor McCarthy today.
$5 WIN #2 La Babia
2:45 4-Delaware AOC nw2x 6 furlongs
I get your reluctance to take a short price on 7-She's Achance Too (2/1) in here, but if you're going to play the races at Delaware today most everyone you're looking at is coming off a layoff like this. So either you accept that or you don't and you're not playing much. I don't mind the layoff here. What I like, and like VERY much is that this 6yo mare is 6-for-20 over all, and of those she's 6-for-14 at this distance! Look down her pp's.....her last SIX starts at this 3/4 of a mile trip were ALL WINS, and NONE by less than two lengths. She runs for the $25K tag because she's won at this level twice already. Been away since October, but the one layoff line of similar length where she returned on the dirt at this trip resulted in a daylight score. An added bonus she's won over this track as well.
$10 WIN #7 She's Achance Too
3:15 5-Delaware Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
The first thing that LEAPS off the page is the cheap $5K tag for these maidens. And the first scan of the pp's shows that the nine with experience were beaten a combined 108 lengths in their most recent. Now add in that they all come from different levels, distances, tracks, and surfaces. You're guessing here. Best advice is to go 7-ALL in a double using She's Achance Too, or similar in playing a Pick-3, etc. No straight up win bets here my friend.
PASS
3:45 6-Delaware Allowance nw1x 71/2 f - TURF
Obviously I'd much prefer to see 12-Motataabeq (4/1) with a more inward post, but you get what you get here with the favorite. Several encouraging angles in his favor. This Shadwell runner immediately improved in his second start when getting on the turf from a 28 BSF to a 75, that coming vs. NYRA maiden specials in September. Off until early December he scored at Gulfstream for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin at a big 6/1 price. Came back with two starts at this entry level allowance condition and ran nearly identical numbers..... 79 for the win and back-to-back 80's for the losses at the level. Moved to the Michael Pino barn when McLaughlin retired from training to become a jockey agent for Luis Saez and since that last run this $450K son of City Zip has worked sharply for the new connections. Two near bullets in April, then three maintenance works, and topped off with a best-of-54 bullet move for today's return to the races. Have to be encouraged that the maiden win came when also widely drawn. Are you willing to accept the two big Beyers earned by 2-Skol Factor (5/1) when narrowly beaten (2nd a neck) and a dominant win - both at Oaklawn on the main track. Those two figures, 83-82, would be ultra-competitive here and his Tomlinsons say he'll enjoy the added ground and grass. The barn just 5% from 59 starters off a layoff like this AND then there is the fact that he's not only going two turns for the first time, and grass for the first time, but also facing winners at a new track for the first time. Would have to be awfully good to overcome all that.
$10 WIN #12 Motataabeq
4:15 7-Delaware Claiming nw3L 1m/70
Much like Race 5, the first thing to catch the eye is the cheap $6.25K price tag, coupled with the restricted "non-winners of three lifetime" condition. BUT, while I typically do NOT like to play last out winners of nw2L on the rise to nw3L, 2-Revolutionary Mary (2/1) saw her Beyer leap forward when stretched to a mile trip two back when she won her maiden at Penn National. Came right back against winners at a mile and ran nearly the same number, actually a click better. Those two figures of 55 and 56 won't win any Breeders' Cup events, but they beat all 126 combined dirt tries by her rivals today. Have to be a Beyer believer, which I am. Note the barn clicking at 27% on the year and also a big 33% of the 24 starters off breaks like this one has score. So I'll jump on board.
$5 WIN #2 Revolutionary Mary
4:45 8-Delaware The Obeah Stakes 81/2 furlongs
Well if the 14/1 upset by She's A Julie taught us anything last Saturday it's that trainer Steve Asmussen doesn't ship his quality runners out of town for stakes events unless he's serious about what he thinks their chances are. And it appears to me that he's got the class of the field in today's featured event, the Obeah which is the prep for the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap. 4-Lady Apple (7/2) will be even money or less when she leaves the gate today due to her EIGHT STRAIGHT graded appearances, half of which were winning efforts. Going back to her maiden win in early February 2019, I think you can make legitimate excuses for the four losses dotted through the half dozen victories. After winning her maiden in a 6f maiden sprint at Oaklawn she repeated in a two-lifetime race going today's mile and a sixteenth. And followed that with a win in the Grade 3 Fantasy. Next stop was Churchill Downs and the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Over her head? I wouldn't say so as she ran third that day at 10/1 odds. Came back to win the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks before trying a mile and a quarter in the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. Completely outrun by sensational Dunbar Road in the goo, she bounced back with a win in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks. Off from September to late January she made her 4yo seasonal debut with a win in the Grade 3 Houston Lady's Classic. She was outrun in the Grade 2 Azeri and I think that's explained by the sloppy going - the only other time she ran in the slop she was buried (in the Alabama). Last time out she was well beaten in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and there I'd say it was as much the fact that she was in post 13 of 14 runners as the level of competition. Look at the first call.....in her previous six starts at 9f or less she was only more than three lengths back at the first call once when four back. But in the Apple Blossom she was 12th some 19 lengths off the pace. Toss that. She's the class of the field and she's 5-for-7 at today's distance. Just 1-for-7 at all other distances, she should score handily here. The one other that deserves at least a look-see is Brad Cox's 7-Vault (6/1) who entices Florent Geroux to make the trip to the northeast today. She makes just her third start for Cox since transferring to his barn and she's paired figures of 84-85. A move forward here while third off the shelf gives her an upset chance.
$15 WIN #4 Lady Apple
5:15 9-Delaware Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Just watching here....the best figures showing are owned by a 10x maiden had to drop to maiden 16 and 20 to earn those numbers and now steps back up for $25K. The Scott Lake entry probably goes favored and one of those two probably wins. Not for me however.
PASS
5:35 1-Canterbury Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
The Minnesota opener should be decided between the two morning line favorites. 6-Biscottini (3/1) ships in from Golden Gates Fields and their synthetic surface. Broke slowly and still was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths in an open MSW. "Dropped" into a state-bred and was beaten a neck when second. Changes barns, ships halfway across the country and moves onto real dirt. The barn is 21% with new acquisitions and the horse has a solid work over the Canterbury main. 8-Golden Lily (2/1) has three Beyer figures that win here, earned on "real dirt" for a tag at Oaklawn, more expensive than the $16K they are all in for today.
PASS
5:45 10-Delaware Claiming 8 furlongs
For me, the consistently inconsistency of cheap claimers is hard to take under any circumstances, but in the Delaware finale we're looking at non-winners of a race since mid-December in for the cheapest of tags, just $4K. You don't risk a runner for that cheap on the drop down who has talent, so I'm suspicious of all the class droppers. And the rest just don't like to win.
PASS
6:04 2-Canterbury The 10,000 Lakes Stakes 6 furlongs
It's a horse race and we've certainly seen "sure things" at miniscule odds fail to deliver. But it's hard to envision anyone but 1-Mr. Jagermeister (2/5) winning in here. Nearly every factor lines up in his favor today. His two back 97 Beyer when second in Oaklawn's Hot Springs behind multiple graded stakes winning, horse-for-the-course Whitmore (who came right back to beat Mr. Jagermeister in the Grade 3 Count Fleet last time out), and his 98 Beyer when winning Turf Paradise Park's Phoenix Gold Cup will win this by half the length of the stretch. In addition, at today's six furlong trip the favorite is 7-for-14, and over the Canterbury main track he's an astounding 7-for-8 with one second place finish. Drops out of an open Gr 3 and two open sprint stakes for this restricted stakes event today and if you scan his past performances he's run in restricted company only twice with a win by 5 1/4 lengths and 4 1/4 lengths. Does he really love it here? How about his first local work to prepare for this - a best of 46 blistering bullet move. Oh. And wait.....with the rail draw he is the only, THE ONLY front runner in the field. OH - squared. 3-Hot Shot Kid (3/1) would be the beneficiary if one of the other three go with the favorite and make him go too fast early. The 'Kid is 11-for-15 at Canterbury and won this very stakes event last year, albeit with a Beyer double digits slower than a typical winning effort from the favorite. He's the "most likely" alternative, but really hard to envision that happening.
$30 WIN #1 Mr. Jagermeister
Today's BEST BET
6:33 3-Canterbury Claiming 8 furlongs
The conditions of this "beaten" $10K claimer are interesting, "....for non-winners of two or Minnesota-breds that have not won thre...." The only two from the Golden Gopher state (with two wins already) are outsiders - one from a barn that's 2-for-34 in 2020 and the other hasn't won since at least the summer of 2018. That makes the situation more appealing to go with 3-Whata Show Off (3/1) who earned a 75 Beyer winning his maiden HERE at this trip and a 78 at Keeneland in a MSW event. BOTH of those however came on the off-going. Hmmmm. Would be more appealing if it rains in Minnesota, don'tchaknow? Lack of any early gas in here makes the pace scenario sketchy and that could lead to an upset.
PASS
7:02 4-Canterbury Claiming 5 furlongs
Oh that $4K claiming tag and the restriction which lures the "beaten" tag that this is for "...non winners of a race in 2020...." all make picking her difficult. But, top conditioner Robertino Diodoro sends out 3-Saved By Zero (3/1) who's piled up six wins and fifteen exacta finishes while never running for this cheap. We'll know before they've gone the opening quarter mile if he's a legitimate favorite because to win he'll want to take them coast to coast and there's other speed outside of him. He posted four wins in 2019 and wired them all - against better. And he's only been out once in 2020, in a turf sprint.
$5 WIN #3 Saved By Zero
7:31 5-Canterbury Maiden Special 71/2 furlongs
Of the forty-five combined races run by the eleven entered for the turf, only twelve tries have come over an inner turf course, and four of those were in turf sprints. LOTS of unknowns. If on the turf I'd lean to 6-Spitfire Suzie (15/1) who tried turf, at a mile vs. richer Tampa maidens last time out. Ran fourth with a new career top Beyer figure. Don't like her well enough to bet. I would be playing the race if it gets moved to the main track. MTO: 1-Pretti Xtreme (3/1) would have a huge advantage over who ever stays in the field as the owner of bigger speed figures, on the main track going long. She drops out of twostraight MSW events going long at Oaklawn.
PASS
8:00 6-Canterbury The Lady Slipper Stakes 6 furlongs
A year ago May 18th, Canterbury hosted this stakes event and ALL FIVE runners from that event come back for the 2020 renewal, with three new shooters to the party. 4-Ari Gia (3/1) was the 9/5 favorite that evening and was a decisive winner. Hard to imagine any of the four that chased her then have improved enough to make up that ground. The concern is that Ari Gia will want the front and a couple of the new shooters also have speed. On pace figures it's not hard to imagine she'll be the speed of the speed, open up on the turn and win comfortably. If pressed and/or forced to go too fast early, you could make a case for lightly raced 3-Clickbait (9/2) who's one of the newcomers. She's only been out three times and the two vs. restricted company were blow out wins. Her last was off the bench off a seven month break, and she dueled early before settling for a best of the rest 2nd place finish in an open Oaklawn sprint. It's tough to make comparisons and there is the time element involved, but the two have a mutual defeated foe and the favorite was four plus additional lengths clear of that commonly faced filly.
$10 WIN #4 Ari Gia
8:29 7-Canterbury AOC nw1x 8f - TURF
2-First Hunter (7/2) is a 7x turf winner locally and one of those showing in her pp's is a stakes race vs. restricted company. But she's also lost in a $12.5K open claimer here. Has changed barns and her regular rider from last year when she was winning is on another. Watching only.
PASS
8:58 8-Canterbury AOC / C 8 furlongs
Several ways to go in this conditioned allowance which has multiple layers of who can run under what circumstance, none of which seems to provide the key to picking the winner. 4-Gato Guapo (4/1) may be overlooked after running second to the rail runner. But note that 'Gato was six-wide at 2/1 odds while the winner had a smoother trip to upset the race at 25/1 odds. Run twice here, the last a 2nd place effort in an open stakes. Gets one of the top local riders. 9-Chris and Dave (3/1) the one I WANT to like, but having a hard time getting past the single win on the page and lots of slices. The DRF choice is 7-United Patriot (10/1) who could surprise off a bullet work and Beyers as good as anyone else in here, but finished behind Chris and Dave three times when that one was just hitting the board.
$5 WIN #4 Gato Guapo
Races 9 and 10 are quarter horse-like two-year-old trial events....do people really bet those?
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