It's a stakes filled card at Lone Star in Texas for Texas Champions Day....and we'll finish under the lights!
4:05 1-Lone Star Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
You're probably going to see the Sunday opener won by one half of the short-priced entry with the two runners going for two separate trainers, BOTH of which win at a high percentage. But we will just be watching. Neither 1-Spectacular Temper (1/1) nor 1a-Weekend Madness (1/1) have speed figures that stand out to separate them from the field as worthy of their odds. The former exits a maiden claiming win for $15K, now in for 2-lifetime at $7.5K is probably the right fit. But the fact that she took eight tries, NONE with big figs is worrisome to me. Had to think the entry-mate was the root of the short odds, but Weekend Madness is 12/1-1-3, exits a third straight loss in 2L company (albeit vs. more expensive) and is parked wide. Maybe you like 7-Lemon Drop Kitty (5/2) as an alternative. Tells you about the "quality" of the field that she's second choice with a 1-for-21 resume and goes for an 0-for-22 outfit.
PASS
4:35 2-Lone Star Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Steve Asmussen's 4-Good Faith (5/2) gets a tepid nod, but no wagering dollars exiting a good third in a seven furlong MSW event at Sam Houston. Note the top two were double digits clear of the of Good Faith and were separated by multiple lengths - and 'Faith was nearly two clear of the rest of the field. The daughter of Bodemeister should enjoy the added ground AND has a sharp bullet work at her Louisiana Downs home base for this. The only one in the field who's earned a Beyer equal to the par for this level (a slow 57) is 2-Clay's Moon Stone (3/1). BUT, she's got three straight close second place finishes, following a third on debut....ALL in high priced claiming events.
7:05 3-Lone Star The Yellow Rose of Texas 6 furlongs
For many years I've played the races at Lone Star on a limited basis and a lot, A LOT of the wins came when following the local handicapping sheet, "Rick's Picks" and his BEST Bets and especially "Lee's Locks" from handicapper Rick Lee. The one to beat in here is 6-She's Our Fastest (6/5) and not only does she look best on paper but she's the "Best Bet" on the sheet. 'Fastest won this race last year - albeit at Sam Houston (where this stakes card was scheduled to be run but a blown transformer forced the rescheduling). She's Our Fastest is fond of the local surface (4/2-2-0) and is a stakes winner over the track. She turns back from a one mile trip at Delta Downs, where she won a stakes, but it's noteworthy that trainer Scott Geiner used the identical pattern last year to win this event. She owns a 6/4-2-0 record at the distance and best of all has back-to-back sizzling works for this race. Looks formidable in here.
5:35 4-Lone Star The Spirit of Texas 6 furlongs
You get the last two winners of this event squaring off as the two short priced choices in the program. I prefer the "longer" price of the two in 3-Direct Dial (7/5) who was the Texas-bred of the Year in 2018 and won this event last year in dominant fashion as the 7/5 favorite. Last season trainer Steve Asmussen used a 3rd place finish in an OPEN Sam Houston stakes to set up the win here. Looks like he had the same plan only to see the race date changed as Direct Dial made a start in that identical stakes and ran third again. To bridge the races Asmussen sent his charge to Will Rogers Downs where he was a good third going five furlongs - AND that race has produced not one but two next-out winners already. Stretches out with two bullet works over the local surface and looks strong. 5-Imma Bling (6/5) has to be well-regarded off a 2018 win in this event because on the page his last victory came last August in a turf sprint at Remington. Not willing to take a short price when there's a viable alternative.
6:07 5-Lone Star The Richard King Turf 9f - TURF
You scan through the past performances of the nine entrants in here and one thing LEAPS off the page at you...... eight of these have been beaten multiple times by 7-Redatory (7/5) who is four for eight on the lawn and the ONLY winner at tonight's nine furlong trip - ironically in THIS RACE last year. According to DRF analyst Mary Rampellini, Redatory is "....one of the marquee names on the Texas Champions Day card....." He's won his last three tries vs. Texas-breds and it's noteworthy that he swept the three turf stakes of this division over the three different Texas grass courses last year. Comes in here with back-to-back bullet works, the latest a blistering move in :59.2 for five furlongs. His up-close racing style means he'll make his own good trip. Looks as strong to beat as the favorite in Race 3, and no surprise is one of the three top choices by analyst Rick Lee.
6:39 6-Lone Star The Groovy (3yo) 6 furlongs
Mixed feelings here so I don't regard this race as nearly as predictable as the previous added money events. Your opinion of the race HAS to go through your opinion of the 84 Beyer earned by 2-Gold Pilot (2/1) when winning the Jim's Orbit at this distance over three of this evening's rivals. On the positive, the career best effort came when running six furlongs over a fast track for the first time, and it's not uncommon for 3yo thoroughbreds to suddenly improve. AND that he exited a maiden win to beat the short priced (3/5) favorite 6-Good Judgement (5/2) convincingly is also a positive sign for his chances today. Have to wonder why the rider is on a double-digit longshot instead of riding back here? Good Judgement exited that event to win an allowance here as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and that gives him recency, over this track. At a price, I'd include 8-More Said Ready (12/1) who wired back to back stakes HERE including a win over Good Judgement two back.
7:11 7-Lone Star The Bara Lass (3yo) 6 furlongs
I like the way the filly 3-Always Inthe Munny (8/5) comes into this event even though the figure pattern resembles that of Gold Pilot in the previous 3yo colt version of this race and he's not one I have a lot of confidence in. 'Munny ran in an OPEN allowance at Will Rogers, was sent off as the 8/5 favorite. Made a move entering the far turn and quickly went from a close-up third to in front by half a dozen, widening through the stretch impressively to score by eight open lengths. The 83 Beyer was solidified when the runner-up came right back to score. A sharp bullet work in :59 flat seals the deal on the short-priced favorite who's the DRF BEST BET.
7:43 8-Lone Star The San Jacinto Turf 8 1/2 furlongs TURF
Of all the short priced favorites on the card I am less impressed by 6-Corluna (1/1) than the others. To be fair, she's a six time winner on grass and she's also a stakes winner over this course. Ironically the second place filly was She's Our Fastest, favored to take a dirt sprint stake earlier on this card. What sways my opinion is that Corluna is the top choice by the DRF and Rick Lee, but more importantly earns the distinction of being "Lee's Lock" on the program. Won far too many of those "locks" to bypass this one, even at short odds.
8:13 9-Lone Star The Star of Texas 8 furlongs
A wide, WIDE open two-turn mile looks to be unscrupulously difficult to separate the runners from one another. Can't even give you a lean in here.
PASS
7:05 3-Lone Star The Yellow Rose of Texas 6 furlongs
For many years I've played the races at Lone Star on a limited basis and a lot, A LOT of the wins came when following the local handicapping sheet, "Rick's Picks" and his BEST Bets and especially "Lee's Locks" from handicapper Rick Lee. The one to beat in here is 6-She's Our Fastest (6/5) and not only does she look best on paper but she's the "Best Bet" on the sheet. 'Fastest won this race last year - albeit at Sam Houston (where this stakes card was scheduled to be run but a blown transformer forced the rescheduling). She's Our Fastest is fond of the local surface (4/2-2-0) and is a stakes winner over the track. She turns back from a one mile trip at Delta Downs, where she won a stakes, but it's noteworthy that trainer Scott Geiner used the identical pattern last year to win this event. She owns a 6/4-2-0 record at the distance and best of all has back-to-back sizzling works for this race. Looks formidable in here.
$15 WIN #6 She's Our Fastest
5:35 4-Lone Star The Spirit of Texas 6 furlongs
You get the last two winners of this event squaring off as the two short priced choices in the program. I prefer the "longer" price of the two in 3-Direct Dial (7/5) who was the Texas-bred of the Year in 2018 and won this event last year in dominant fashion as the 7/5 favorite. Last season trainer Steve Asmussen used a 3rd place finish in an OPEN Sam Houston stakes to set up the win here. Looks like he had the same plan only to see the race date changed as Direct Dial made a start in that identical stakes and ran third again. To bridge the races Asmussen sent his charge to Will Rogers Downs where he was a good third going five furlongs - AND that race has produced not one but two next-out winners already. Stretches out with two bullet works over the local surface and looks strong. 5-Imma Bling (6/5) has to be well-regarded off a 2018 win in this event because on the page his last victory came last August in a turf sprint at Remington. Not willing to take a short price when there's a viable alternative.
$10 WIN #3 Direct Dial
6:07 5-Lone Star The Richard King Turf 9f - TURF
You scan through the past performances of the nine entrants in here and one thing LEAPS off the page at you...... eight of these have been beaten multiple times by 7-Redatory (7/5) who is four for eight on the lawn and the ONLY winner at tonight's nine furlong trip - ironically in THIS RACE last year. According to DRF analyst Mary Rampellini, Redatory is "....one of the marquee names on the Texas Champions Day card....." He's won his last three tries vs. Texas-breds and it's noteworthy that he swept the three turf stakes of this division over the three different Texas grass courses last year. Comes in here with back-to-back bullet works, the latest a blistering move in :59.2 for five furlongs. His up-close racing style means he'll make his own good trip. Looks as strong to beat as the favorite in Race 3, and no surprise is one of the three top choices by analyst Rick Lee.
$15 WIN #7 Redatory
6:39 6-Lone Star The Groovy (3yo) 6 furlongs
Mixed feelings here so I don't regard this race as nearly as predictable as the previous added money events. Your opinion of the race HAS to go through your opinion of the 84 Beyer earned by 2-Gold Pilot (2/1) when winning the Jim's Orbit at this distance over three of this evening's rivals. On the positive, the career best effort came when running six furlongs over a fast track for the first time, and it's not uncommon for 3yo thoroughbreds to suddenly improve. AND that he exited a maiden win to beat the short priced (3/5) favorite 6-Good Judgement (5/2) convincingly is also a positive sign for his chances today. Have to wonder why the rider is on a double-digit longshot instead of riding back here? Good Judgement exited that event to win an allowance here as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and that gives him recency, over this track. At a price, I'd include 8-More Said Ready (12/1) who wired back to back stakes HERE including a win over Good Judgement two back.
$5 win #2 Gold Pilot
7:11 7-Lone Star The Bara Lass (3yo) 6 furlongs
I like the way the filly 3-Always Inthe Munny (8/5) comes into this event even though the figure pattern resembles that of Gold Pilot in the previous 3yo colt version of this race and he's not one I have a lot of confidence in. 'Munny ran in an OPEN allowance at Will Rogers, was sent off as the 8/5 favorite. Made a move entering the far turn and quickly went from a close-up third to in front by half a dozen, widening through the stretch impressively to score by eight open lengths. The 83 Beyer was solidified when the runner-up came right back to score. A sharp bullet work in :59 flat seals the deal on the short-priced favorite who's the DRF BEST BET.
$10 WIN #3 Always Inthe Munny
7:43 8-Lone Star The San Jacinto Turf 8 1/2 furlongs TURF
Of all the short priced favorites on the card I am less impressed by 6-Corluna (1/1) than the others. To be fair, she's a six time winner on grass and she's also a stakes winner over this course. Ironically the second place filly was She's Our Fastest, favored to take a dirt sprint stake earlier on this card. What sways my opinion is that Corluna is the top choice by the DRF and Rick Lee, but more importantly earns the distinction of being "Lee's Lock" on the program. Won far too many of those "locks" to bypass this one, even at short odds.
$10 WIN #6 Corluna
8:13 9-Lone Star The Star of Texas 8 furlongs
A wide, WIDE open two-turn mile looks to be unscrupulously difficult to separate the runners from one another. Can't even give you a lean in here.
PASS
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