Saturday June 13

1:15     1-Belmont        Turf     6f         Maiden Claiming                          PASS                                      

A full field of twelve state-bred maidens sprinting the NY-unique six furlongs on the turf and there’s a combined FOUR races at that distance on grass showing.  Not for me.

1:50     2-Belmont        Turf     8½f      Claiming                                       PASS                                      

Interestingly, much like the opener where there’s very little to go on to compare to the distance/surface of the race, you’d think that in this $25K claimer on the turf you’d have much better options.  Not so.  Most have limited turf starts and not many have good turf form.  11-Golden Spear (5/1) is an 8x winner on the grass and his win last August at Saratoga for $25K would probably be good enough.  Like John Velazquez up, but not a fan that the barn is 0-for-18 with runners off layoffs like this.

2:23     3-Belmont                    6½f      Maiden Special             1 – Primacy                           2/5                

It will be interested to see if 1-Primacy (2/5) is pounded down to the miniscule odds offered by the early DRF morning line oddsmaker at post time.  But I will say, Chad Brown’s Union Rags filly looks every bit the part of a 2/5 favorite in this line-up.  The main concern has to be the rail draw (coupled with enigmatic rider Javier Castellano of course).  In her debut she was left at the gate, breaking 11^th of twelve but closed with a rush to be 2^nd beaten only ¾ of a length.  She was stretched out to a one-turn mile and left the gate as the even money favorite.  Broke cleanly but ran evenly in third all the way around.  I like the turn back and that she’s paired figures (72-74) which are FURLONG faster than any number posted by any of those with experience. 

2:55     4-Belmont        Turf     6f         Maiden Claiming                           PASS                                      

The second half of the split first race and unfortunately for us as bettors, the field is nearly identical.  Next to nothing at six furlongs on the turf (very little turf sprint form period) to go on.  Another watch and wait for another opportunity.

3:27     5-Belmont                    8½f      AOC nw2x                                     PASS                                      

Several COULD win but none of them have run well enough, with a number good enough, at this distance to be worthy of a wager.  Passing yet again.

3:59     6-Belmont        Turf     6f         Claiming                   1 – Mission Command                   20/1               

If 1-Mission Command (20/1) leaves the gate at even HALF the DRF morning line I’ll be delighted.  There are several in this six furlong turf sprint with experience and even wins at the unique distance.  But what appeals to me about this Chad Summers 6yo is the “trainer pattern” that he appears to be following.  In March Mission Command was well beaten in a state-bred, main track claimer.  Off a layoff she returned in an OPEN turf sprint here at this six furlong distance.  She stalked a hot pace in third then drew off to win, with a new career best Beyer figure.  Fast forward….last time out Mission Command ran up the track in a state-bred, main track claimer.  Today, off the shelf, in an OPEN turf sprint at six furlongs.  Uh oh.  The last time 4-Celebration (9/2) was in a claiming event he came off the shelf in an Aqueduct six furlong turf sprint and wired the field.

4:00     1-Santa Anita               4½f      Maiden Special (2yo)                   PASS                                      

A “go figure” kind of race without strong trainer stats.  The one with experience, well beaten 4^th should win.  Watching.

4:30     2-Santa Anita   Turf     5½f      Starter Optional Claiming    5 – Mucho Macho Woman 2/1 *              

Willing to risk a larger investment than probably called for in this starter restricted to non-winners of two because in a short field of five, 5-Mucho Macho Woman (2/1) is the ONLY front runner in the field.  She debuted on turf and missed the break.  Since then speed every time, but all on the main track.  If away cleanly she won’t have ANY competition to set the pace.  Love that bullet work for trainer Ron Ellis for this.  Brad Free’s BEST of the Day.

4:32     7-Belmont        Turf     8f         Maiden Special                             PASS*                                     

I’d feel a lot more comfortable betting EITHER of the Chad Brown firsters IF one of them scratched.  The more expensive of the two, 2-Dovima (6/1) cost owner Peter Brant $440K to move into his stable and Jose Ortiz rides.  But the Tomlinson figures are surprisingly light for a Brown turf filly.  Never know until they run.  But the powerful Klaravich stables sends out 5-Cost Benefit (7/2) who has big turf numbers but brought less than $100K at the sales auction.  Of those with experience 11-Too Sexy (5/2) looks strong.  The daughter of Quality Road has paired Beyers of 76-77 which nearly equal the par for this level.  Two close but no cigar finishes makes me skeptical.

5:00     3-Santa Anita               8 ½ f    Maiden Claiming             1 – Marenesa                    4/5                

Not a fan of the odds on 1-Marenesa (4/5) or that trainer Thomas Bell has two in this compact field of six.  But it’s really, REALLY hard to ignore that last time out she was third where the winner was 12+ clear of 2^nd, who was 11+ clear of Marensa, who in turn was over two lengths of the rest of the field.  Her two most recent figures are double digit lengths clear of everything else on the page.  Another odds-on LONG GONE winner, it would appear.

5:04     8-Belmont                    6f         Allowance nw1x              7 – Officer Hutchy             4/1                  

Nearly the entire field has less than six career starts and an entry level allowance is ALWAYS difficult to predict.  But I do think that 7-Officer Hutchy (4/1) has an edge over these.  This 3yo filly has never run a bad one having won her debut for a big $40K price tag, then came right back to be second in a state-bred stakes and entry level allowance.  That allowance came as the even money favorite, but the winner came right back to score.

5:32     4-Santa Anita   Turf     8f         Claiming nw2L               3 – Worthy Turk                6/5                  

In the big picture, it’s hard to like 3-Worthy Turk (6/5) especially at short odds.  But, toss the first eight races which were all run prior to December 2018.  Off a LONG layoff the 5yo gelding returned to be 5^th beaten 3 ½ lengths in a turf sprint.  Shipped to Golden Gates and ran over the synthetic main track and was third beaten a length and a half in a sprint.  Stretched out at this level and distance as the 8/5 favorite and was a best-of-the-rest 2^nd (four clear of the show) while wide through the stretch.  Two of the three races since the layoff have Beyers (77-78) that win here and BOTH were on the grass course here in Arcadia.

5:36     9-Belmont                    8½f      Grade 1 Ogden Phipps   3 – She’s A Julie               8/1                  

You can make a case for all of these, but collectively this is a pretty average Grade 1 Phipps based on the kinds of talent that has shown up here in the recent past.  Evenly matched where the “best” race on the page could produce a win from nearly all of them, so with that said I think it’s interesting that Steve Asmussen ships 3-She’s A Julie (8/1) here from her Louisville base, where you KNOW there’s going to be a race that fits her.  Also interesting that regular rider Ricardo Santana also makes the trip.  I think this at least tells you THEY are serious.  Don’t care for the So Cal shipper, 5-Ollie’s Candy (8/5) who was two clear in the lane in the Gr 1 Apple Blossom and was run down on the wire.

6:03     5-Santa Anita               7f         Maiden Claiming            5 – Blazing Charm             5/2 *              

Hate continuing the “chalk parade” out west but there’s a LOT to like about 5-Blazing Charm (5/2) who makes her second career start today.  Debuted in a spot just like this under top rider Flavian Prat and was 9/1.  The gates opened and she hesitated, spotting the field multiple lengths while last of nine.  Came FLYING to get second and finished more than two lengths in front of the rest of the field, TWO OF WHICH came right back to win.  Figuring she leaves the gate favored today and that’s a big stat in our favor….trainer Leonard Powell is 6-for-9 with maiden claiming sprint favorites over the last three years.  Uh oh.

6:08     10-Belmont      Turf     8f         Starter Allowance          2 – Bean Counter              8/5             

Todd Pletcher sends out the “Belmont Best” in the finale in 2-Bean Counter (8/5) who exits back-to-back near misses at this one-mile distance on the grass.  And you may find that a bit of a concern, as well the fact the 4yo filly steps up from a $40K starter to this $50K starter event.  Also of concern is her 7/1-3-1 record.  But with all that said, three of her last four Beyers are 80, 81, and 83….on the rise figures says she’s going to run better today.  But those three numbers top ALL 94 career figures earned by the rest of the field.

6:34     6-Santa Anita               6f         The Thor’s Echo         1 – Desert Law                              6/5                

I get it, it’s horse racing and certainly the favorites are not going to roll race after race.  But on paper it’s really hard to look past 1-Desert Law (6/5) under the hot riding Flavian Prat.  According to the DRF’s Brad Free he’s been working strongly in the morning WITH Prat on board.  Love the not one but TWO BULLET works for today’s return.  The last two times he’s faced restricted Cal-breds he’s won by daylight, going away.  Off the most recent, IN THIS VERY EVENT last year, he ran second beaten a half length in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby.  Oh.

7:06     7-Santa Anita   Turf     5½f      Starter Optional Claiming                    PASS                                      

Very few wins in turf sprints showing on the page and even fewer over this course.  Nothing interests me here……

7:38     8-Santa Anita               6½f      The Angels Fligh                                  PASS                                      

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Bob Baffert’s expensive filly, 1-Gingham (5/2) win here, but she’s underwhelmed fans with only two wins and four seconds all going two turns.  First time sprint and on the rail raises even more questions.

8:10     9-Santa Anita               7f         Claiming nw3L                                     PASS                                      

6-Dark Hedges (5/2) probably deserves to go favored.  The ONLY time she dropped in for a tag, and it was a restricted one at that, she won.  That was back in November at Del Mar.  Has seen starter allowance and optional allowance foes in her last three since that one the last two around two turns and the most recent two-turns on the grass.  Off the shelf, on the drop, back to dirt, back to a sprint.  Could be the right one.  Just not a big fan of the connections.