It's a Louisville kind of day as we move our racing attention to action under the Twin Spires for this Friday afternoon......
1:00 1-Churchill Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
Mark this day down in your books as "that doesn't happen hardly ever" because I'm about to put my money on a fifteen-time maiden claimer. You read that right, 15 losses. But every horse has her day and today is THE DAY for 2-Drop Dead Gorgeous (1/1) and owner/trainer Steve Asmussen. I won't be surprised to see 4yo fill to add to her 7 slices without a win, but these facts point her out as the winner at long last. In her 12th try at Oaklawn she was claimed out of a $25K event when running third by Asmussen FOR HIMSELF. Confidently moved up to $40K competition she ran 4th; then dropped down to $30K she was a best-of-the-rest second. Stretched out to a one-turn mile here on May 21st she dropped a click to run for a $20K tag and was 2nd in a photo finish while nearly four clear of everyone else. Today's the day.....three sharp efforts, drops all the way down to a dime level today and most importantly the three figures she's earned under Asmussen's care (60-58-61) beat all thirty-five combined career figures of her rivals in here. Biggest challenge likely to come from the firster in here, 3-Flashback Bear (4/1) who goes for a 9% barn with debut runners or to lightly raced 5-Champagne Affair (5/1) who earned a 54 when second at this level. But for me, time to welcome that "gorgeous" filly into the winner's circle for her long-awaited photo op.
1:34 2-Churchill Maiden Special (2yo) 51/2 furlongs
To this handicapper, betting on 2yo runners early in the year is a difficult proposition because there are often more than one with works "good enough" to indicate some modicum of talent. I find that often the sales price can be an indicator of what MAY be a talented runner. But the best indicator - and I use the term "best" timidly - is the record of the barn with young horses. In this spot I think that several good angles make 9-Hulen (2/1) worth a small wager. First, this colt is trained by Steve Asmussen who traditionally has done good work with juveniles. Second, the outside box in the gate should mean he gets a clean getaway and trip here at this short sprint distance. Third, the colt has a long list of works and several of them are sharp. And finally, three of the eight he faces have experience and were so badly outrun that I'm very skeptical they can win. Three of them are first timers that come from barns that do NOT typically win with those. And that leaves just the two inside runners, 1-Little Alex (5/2) was third and clear of the field, but not a fan of the rail draw or the barn's numbers. 2-Tiz A Bit Lucky (8/1) was also third, beaten nearly fifteen lengths but daylight clear of the other eight runners. Again the barn is the issue.
2:06 3-Churchill AOC nw3x 5f - TURF
Just not sure.....if 1-Bulletin (7/2) takes a step forward today I think he could be a handful. He was brilliant at two having won back-to-back-to-back stakes to start his career (including his debut in a stakes race) which culminated with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. But he was a stunning loser in his 3yo bow and it's all been downhill since. But, in his last when making his first start for Steve Asmussen, here, he flashed some of the old speed to the stretch before giving way. Considering he'd not raced in seven months, I'm ok with dismissing that. And he COULD be the lone speed if away well from the rail. Maybe..... 5-Fast Boat (7/2) the most likely to pick up the pieces and run by the top one if he's not at his best.
2:38 4-Churchill Claiming nw2L 8 1/2 furlongs
All seven have run at this $30K non-winners of two lifetime level, losing. And six of the seven have earned recent Beyers between 74 and 77. Hard to separate and have an opinion.
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 9 furlongs
A dozen $20K maidens line up going nine furlongs and there is next to no experience past a mile and a sixteenth. The best figures belong to the favorite who's not only a THIRTEEN time maiden with TEN slices of second and third place finishes, but is also slotted wide. 12-Ronamo (5/2) has nine dirt tries at 8 1/2 furlongs to go with two synthetic tries and one turf race. Not betting here.
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 8f - TURF
It would be a surprise if anyone other than the two favorites were to win this second level allowance test at a mile on the grass. I'm going with Euro import 7-Set Piece (9/5) to get the money over the more experienced 3-Ballagh Rocks (7/5) today. The latter, if he were to run back to his string of triple digit Beyers earned April 2017-April 2018 he'd be a decisive winner. BUT with that said, his last five races have been a pole slower, he's only earned one win - in a GP allowance by a nose - and has twice been well beaten. Add in a slower than slow recent work and I'm skeptical. Conversely, Brad Cox takes over the conditioning for the Euro import who posted a sharp bullet work for today and this 4yo son of Dansili has a career mark of 6/3-0-1. I'll take the potential over the experience.
4:14 7-Churchill Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
The three "most likely" winners in here with the best Beyer speed figures all exit non-winners of 2 lifetime races for a cheaper price tag. Makes for a perplexing situation. Best to sit back and watch, move on to the eighth.....
4:46 8-Churchill AOC nw1x (3yo) 9 furlongs
Another "you're just guessing" race, and this one - like Race 5 - is at nine furlongs with next to no experience at the distance, but adds in the fact that these are all lightly raced sophomores. Some races you can have a strong opinion - others it's not handicapping, it's gambling. There was a race like this on Wednesday.....the winner was 30/1 with the runner-up at 11/1. Thinking this looks much the same at the end of the event.
5:18 9-Churchill Maiden Special 8f - TURF
Two Chad Brown runners look to steal the top prize in here and while EITHER COULD win, I think you have to believe the better chance goes to 4-Greyes Creek (5/2) this afternoon. First, unlike his stablemate he's been out on the track four times. Second, Tyler Gaffalione - while not a "go to" rider for Brown - has ridden multiple Brown runners at Gulfstream and as the leading rider in Louisville at the moment probably had his choice between the two. Third, Greyes Creek is an $850K son of Pioneerof the Nile who produced American Pharoah. Fourth, he's only been on the turf once, and that's because his 2nd and 3rd career starts BOTH got rained off. I see his running lines as a real positive in that he made that turf debut off a SIXTEEN month layoff (connections didn't give up on him) and he was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths despite steadying in traffic in the stretch. 3-Digitial Software (4/1) probably a good turf runner for Brown, but with a first time Brown rider (David Cohen) and only an $80K sales purchase price, I'll lean to the experienced Brown colt. Finally, unlike the opener where "ever horse has his day" and I liked the multi-race maiden, 9-Rochambeau (3/1) has the look of a career maiden despite better and more consistent Beyers. Only been out six times and hit the board in four of them, but, just not buying it....
1:00 1-Churchill Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
Mark this day down in your books as "that doesn't happen hardly ever" because I'm about to put my money on a fifteen-time maiden claimer. You read that right, 15 losses. But every horse has her day and today is THE DAY for 2-Drop Dead Gorgeous (1/1) and owner/trainer Steve Asmussen. I won't be surprised to see 4yo fill to add to her 7 slices without a win, but these facts point her out as the winner at long last. In her 12th try at Oaklawn she was claimed out of a $25K event when running third by Asmussen FOR HIMSELF. Confidently moved up to $40K competition she ran 4th; then dropped down to $30K she was a best-of-the-rest second. Stretched out to a one-turn mile here on May 21st she dropped a click to run for a $20K tag and was 2nd in a photo finish while nearly four clear of everyone else. Today's the day.....three sharp efforts, drops all the way down to a dime level today and most importantly the three figures she's earned under Asmussen's care (60-58-61) beat all thirty-five combined career figures of her rivals in here. Biggest challenge likely to come from the firster in here, 3-Flashback Bear (4/1) who goes for a 9% barn with debut runners or to lightly raced 5-Champagne Affair (5/1) who earned a 54 when second at this level. But for me, time to welcome that "gorgeous" filly into the winner's circle for her long-awaited photo op.
$10 WIN #2 Drop Dead Gorgeous
1:34 2-Churchill Maiden Special (2yo) 51/2 furlongs
To this handicapper, betting on 2yo runners early in the year is a difficult proposition because there are often more than one with works "good enough" to indicate some modicum of talent. I find that often the sales price can be an indicator of what MAY be a talented runner. But the best indicator - and I use the term "best" timidly - is the record of the barn with young horses. In this spot I think that several good angles make 9-Hulen (2/1) worth a small wager. First, this colt is trained by Steve Asmussen who traditionally has done good work with juveniles. Second, the outside box in the gate should mean he gets a clean getaway and trip here at this short sprint distance. Third, the colt has a long list of works and several of them are sharp. And finally, three of the eight he faces have experience and were so badly outrun that I'm very skeptical they can win. Three of them are first timers that come from barns that do NOT typically win with those. And that leaves just the two inside runners, 1-Little Alex (5/2) was third and clear of the field, but not a fan of the rail draw or the barn's numbers. 2-Tiz A Bit Lucky (8/1) was also third, beaten nearly fifteen lengths but daylight clear of the other eight runners. Again the barn is the issue.
$10 WIN #9 Hulen
2:06 3-Churchill AOC nw3x 5f - TURF
Just not sure.....if 1-Bulletin (7/2) takes a step forward today I think he could be a handful. He was brilliant at two having won back-to-back-to-back stakes to start his career (including his debut in a stakes race) which culminated with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. But he was a stunning loser in his 3yo bow and it's all been downhill since. But, in his last when making his first start for Steve Asmussen, here, he flashed some of the old speed to the stretch before giving way. Considering he'd not raced in seven months, I'm ok with dismissing that. And he COULD be the lone speed if away well from the rail. Maybe..... 5-Fast Boat (7/2) the most likely to pick up the pieces and run by the top one if he's not at his best.
PASS
2:38 4-Churchill Claiming nw2L 8 1/2 furlongs
All seven have run at this $30K non-winners of two lifetime level, losing. And six of the seven have earned recent Beyers between 74 and 77. Hard to separate and have an opinion.
PASS
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 9 furlongs
A dozen $20K maidens line up going nine furlongs and there is next to no experience past a mile and a sixteenth. The best figures belong to the favorite who's not only a THIRTEEN time maiden with TEN slices of second and third place finishes, but is also slotted wide. 12-Ronamo (5/2) has nine dirt tries at 8 1/2 furlongs to go with two synthetic tries and one turf race. Not betting here.
PASS
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 8f - TURF
It would be a surprise if anyone other than the two favorites were to win this second level allowance test at a mile on the grass. I'm going with Euro import 7-Set Piece (9/5) to get the money over the more experienced 3-Ballagh Rocks (7/5) today. The latter, if he were to run back to his string of triple digit Beyers earned April 2017-April 2018 he'd be a decisive winner. BUT with that said, his last five races have been a pole slower, he's only earned one win - in a GP allowance by a nose - and has twice been well beaten. Add in a slower than slow recent work and I'm skeptical. Conversely, Brad Cox takes over the conditioning for the Euro import who posted a sharp bullet work for today and this 4yo son of Dansili has a career mark of 6/3-0-1. I'll take the potential over the experience.
$10 WIN #7 Set Piece
4:14 7-Churchill Starter Allowance 6 furlongs
The three "most likely" winners in here with the best Beyer speed figures all exit non-winners of 2 lifetime races for a cheaper price tag. Makes for a perplexing situation. Best to sit back and watch, move on to the eighth.....
PASS
4:46 8-Churchill AOC nw1x (3yo) 9 furlongs
Another "you're just guessing" race, and this one - like Race 5 - is at nine furlongs with next to no experience at the distance, but adds in the fact that these are all lightly raced sophomores. Some races you can have a strong opinion - others it's not handicapping, it's gambling. There was a race like this on Wednesday.....the winner was 30/1 with the runner-up at 11/1. Thinking this looks much the same at the end of the event.
PASS
5:18 9-Churchill Maiden Special 8f - TURF
Two Chad Brown runners look to steal the top prize in here and while EITHER COULD win, I think you have to believe the better chance goes to 4-Greyes Creek (5/2) this afternoon. First, unlike his stablemate he's been out on the track four times. Second, Tyler Gaffalione - while not a "go to" rider for Brown - has ridden multiple Brown runners at Gulfstream and as the leading rider in Louisville at the moment probably had his choice between the two. Third, Greyes Creek is an $850K son of Pioneerof the Nile who produced American Pharoah. Fourth, he's only been on the turf once, and that's because his 2nd and 3rd career starts BOTH got rained off. I see his running lines as a real positive in that he made that turf debut off a SIXTEEN month layoff (connections didn't give up on him) and he was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths despite steadying in traffic in the stretch. 3-Digitial Software (4/1) probably a good turf runner for Brown, but with a first time Brown rider (David Cohen) and only an $80K sales purchase price, I'll lean to the experienced Brown colt. Finally, unlike the opener where "ever horse has his day" and I liked the multi-race maiden, 9-Rochambeau (3/1) has the look of a career maiden despite better and more consistent Beyers. Only been out six times and hit the board in four of them, but, just not buying it....
$15 WIN #4 Greyes Creek
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