Moving our handicapping to New York alone today where the highlight comes in the 5th race where the talented 3yo filly Spice Is Nice from the Todd Pletcher barn drops into an allowance spot as the featured pick of the day.
1:15 1-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Thinking this might be a good race to "play" but without a strong degree of confidence. Jockey Irad Ortiz dominated the winter and then the spring meet at Gulfstream. Then last week he won THIRTEEN of twenty-nine mounts....that's 45% for those of you without calculators. WOW. He's on 9-Warfront Fighter (4/1) who's numbers and form are as good as anyone. Everyone is going to like 8-Eagle's Palace (9/5) who ran against strong company as a 2yo without earning numbers that excite. Now at three he's had two high quality starts with clearly the best Beyers on the page. BUT they were in two-turn turf races. Mott-Rosario team up.
PASS
1:50 2-Belmont Claiming nw3L 61/2 furlongs
I'd like the lightly raced colt Irad Ortiz finds himself on in here, except in both of his wins he's coasted wire to wire and there appears to be a lot of front runners in here. That should set the table nicely for 7-Blacktop Legend (7/2) under Dylan Davis. Toss the five races to begin his career on the grass. Now you're left with a runner who's 4/2-0-2. Third in an off-the-turf at Saratoga; then coming off a break he tracked the leaders and blew by for a maiden $40K tag. Right back with a similar trip against $50K starter allowance rivals. Then in his last he was too close to the early pace and faded as the 6/5 favorite in entry level allowance company. Back to a tracking trip I'd imagine while dropping in for a first time tag AND conditioned company for the first time. Ortiz rides 4-Who's In Charge (5/2) who's won two of three including a $40K nw2L with a big 82 Beyer last time out.
2:23 3-Belmont Claiming nw2L 61/2 furlongs
Maybe we get a "fair" price on 2-Future Book (7/2) who's drawn on the rail for Irad Ortiz and runs his best on the front end. Why a "fair" price you say? Because his fractions and Beyers do NOT scream "I'm the one to beat!" but he is lightly raced, has never been in conditioned company and drops from an OPEN $32K sprint where he was third - nearly TEN clear of the rest of the field - into this $25K non-winners of two lifetime event. Note that Ortiz is a 26% winner for trainer Mike Maker.
2:55 4-Belmont Maiden Special 81/2 furlongs
Willing to take a stand against what looks like a heavy favorite in here with Shug McGaughey's 8-Creed (3/1) who makes his second start today. Often noted in these columns is the fact that this Hall of Fame conditioner rarely has them ready to roll early, so if they show ability, watch out next time. Creed debuted at the demanding seven furlongs over the deep, sandy surface in Tampa and closed quickly to be second, beaten half a length while over three clear of the rest of the field. The extended, one-turn mile and a sixteenth should play into the hands of this $650K son of Honor Code who's got steady works since the debut. 7-Cousin Andrew (8/5) has run 2nd, narrowly missing in both starts with paired figures. Goes for Chad Brown with Javier Castellano and would be absolutely no surprise. Really interested to see how 4-Uncle Moonlight (8/1) runs in his debut today. The son of Uncle Mo has some sizzling works and Manny Franco for Michelle Nevin who doesn't have big figures with first timers.
3:27 5-Belmont Allowance nw1x (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs
The "buzz" was out on Todd Pletcher's $1 million filly 5-Spice Is Nice (4/5) when she debuted at Gulfstream in mid-January. Ran to her price tag when dazzling her rivals with a geared down win by more than a dozen lengths, earning an 84 Beyer figure. So impressive, she was brought back next time out against the unbeaten, multiple stakes winning Tonalist's Shape in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and despite giving up experience she went off the 3/5 favorite. Second best that day after Pletcher had commented they had "high hopes" for her. Brought her back around two turns and many, including this handicapper, expected a huge effort in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Didn't run a step that day in a race dominated by Swiss Skydiver who came back to win Oaklawn's Gr 3 Fantasy and then last weekend was much the best in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. None of the combined twenty-two Beyers earned by her rivals can come within a pole of her first two figures, and even her worst number last time out beats all but four of those figures. Much, MUCH the best under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.
3:59 6-Belmont Claiming nw3L 7f - TURF
All the entrants with turf experience have all lost in 3-lifetime conditions previously and that puts a big red "X" on this race for me. Next.....
4:32 7-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8 1/2 furlongs
Steve Asmussen's $2 Million colt, 4-Chestertown (1/1) ran four straight quality efforts to begin his career with a win, a second and two third before trying the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last time out. He was up close for 3/4 before fading away to eighth under the wire, basically splitting the field. The two previous tries around two turns would make him difficult to beat in here. He's the DRF Best Bet of the Day.
5:04 8-Belmont Allowance nw1x 10f - TURF
At least four or five in here have similar numbers and experience at distance events like this so the outcome is anything but definitive. I've landed on 7-Mr. Alec (3/1) who can boast a win at exactly today's mile and a quarter trip AND over this course. A bit disconcerting that he's run 2nd in all three other starts AND beaten neck in all three. Does he just not want to get his head down first? That's the concern for me. Joel Rosario gets back in the saddle for Christophe Clement today - he was on for the 10f win here. 4-Value Engineering (5/2) the obvious alternative for Chad Brown and the Klaravich Stables. A win, two seconds and a third on the resume. His most recent was a photo finish loss at this distance and class level.
5:36 9-Belmont The Flat Out Stakes 11 furlongs
As you scan through running lines for the horses entered in today's marathon feature two things jump off the page to me..... First, there's a lot of quality in here so no matter who wins you won't be totally surprised. But the second thing is this - no one and I mean N-O O-N-E wants the lead. IF Javier Castellano gives one of his Hall of Fame rides and not the oh-so-typical enigmatic "what's he thinking" ride that has become a characteristic over the last few years (coinciding with his change in agents - it's a long story and rant from this corner), the he should put Todd Pletcher's $900K sales grad 3-Moretti (8/1) on the front end and coast all the way around the expansive Belmont oval. The son of Medaglia d'Oro has been up close and won or run well in the past. The main concern for me is that he won last time out under Castellano when coming from 7th at Oaklawn, albeit when chasing a fast pace.
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
SOOOOO you scan the past performances here in the NY finale for a TURF route and what do you see? The first eleven have two first time starters and NINE who have run their most recent races on the dirt! Only 12-Wild North (8/1) exits a turf try when 4th HERE at this same one mile trip late last September. No bets here my friends.
$10 WIN #7 Blacktop Legend
2:23 3-Belmont Claiming nw2L 61/2 furlongs
Maybe we get a "fair" price on 2-Future Book (7/2) who's drawn on the rail for Irad Ortiz and runs his best on the front end. Why a "fair" price you say? Because his fractions and Beyers do NOT scream "I'm the one to beat!" but he is lightly raced, has never been in conditioned company and drops from an OPEN $32K sprint where he was third - nearly TEN clear of the rest of the field - into this $25K non-winners of two lifetime event. Note that Ortiz is a 26% winner for trainer Mike Maker.
$5 WIN #2 Future Book
2:55 4-Belmont Maiden Special 81/2 furlongs
Willing to take a stand against what looks like a heavy favorite in here with Shug McGaughey's 8-Creed (3/1) who makes his second start today. Often noted in these columns is the fact that this Hall of Fame conditioner rarely has them ready to roll early, so if they show ability, watch out next time. Creed debuted at the demanding seven furlongs over the deep, sandy surface in Tampa and closed quickly to be second, beaten half a length while over three clear of the rest of the field. The extended, one-turn mile and a sixteenth should play into the hands of this $650K son of Honor Code who's got steady works since the debut. 7-Cousin Andrew (8/5) has run 2nd, narrowly missing in both starts with paired figures. Goes for Chad Brown with Javier Castellano and would be absolutely no surprise. Really interested to see how 4-Uncle Moonlight (8/1) runs in his debut today. The son of Uncle Mo has some sizzling works and Manny Franco for Michelle Nevin who doesn't have big figures with first timers.
$10 WIN #8 Creed
3:27 5-Belmont Allowance nw1x (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs
The "buzz" was out on Todd Pletcher's $1 million filly 5-Spice Is Nice (4/5) when she debuted at Gulfstream in mid-January. Ran to her price tag when dazzling her rivals with a geared down win by more than a dozen lengths, earning an 84 Beyer figure. So impressive, she was brought back next time out against the unbeaten, multiple stakes winning Tonalist's Shape in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and despite giving up experience she went off the 3/5 favorite. Second best that day after Pletcher had commented they had "high hopes" for her. Brought her back around two turns and many, including this handicapper, expected a huge effort in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Didn't run a step that day in a race dominated by Swiss Skydiver who came back to win Oaklawn's Gr 3 Fantasy and then last weekend was much the best in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. None of the combined twenty-two Beyers earned by her rivals can come within a pole of her first two figures, and even her worst number last time out beats all but four of those figures. Much, MUCH the best under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.
$20 WIN #5 Spice Is Nice
3:59 6-Belmont Claiming nw3L 7f - TURF
All the entrants with turf experience have all lost in 3-lifetime conditions previously and that puts a big red "X" on this race for me. Next.....
PASS
4:32 7-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8 1/2 furlongs
Steve Asmussen's $2 Million colt, 4-Chestertown (1/1) ran four straight quality efforts to begin his career with a win, a second and two third before trying the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last time out. He was up close for 3/4 before fading away to eighth under the wire, basically splitting the field. The two previous tries around two turns would make him difficult to beat in here. He's the DRF Best Bet of the Day.
$10 WIN #4 Chestertown
5:04 8-Belmont Allowance nw1x 10f - TURF
At least four or five in here have similar numbers and experience at distance events like this so the outcome is anything but definitive. I've landed on 7-Mr. Alec (3/1) who can boast a win at exactly today's mile and a quarter trip AND over this course. A bit disconcerting that he's run 2nd in all three other starts AND beaten neck in all three. Does he just not want to get his head down first? That's the concern for me. Joel Rosario gets back in the saddle for Christophe Clement today - he was on for the 10f win here. 4-Value Engineering (5/2) the obvious alternative for Chad Brown and the Klaravich Stables. A win, two seconds and a third on the resume. His most recent was a photo finish loss at this distance and class level.
$5 WIN #7 Mr. Alec
5:36 9-Belmont The Flat Out Stakes 11 furlongs
As you scan through running lines for the horses entered in today's marathon feature two things jump off the page to me..... First, there's a lot of quality in here so no matter who wins you won't be totally surprised. But the second thing is this - no one and I mean N-O O-N-E wants the lead. IF Javier Castellano gives one of his Hall of Fame rides and not the oh-so-typical enigmatic "what's he thinking" ride that has become a characteristic over the last few years (coinciding with his change in agents - it's a long story and rant from this corner), the he should put Todd Pletcher's $900K sales grad 3-Moretti (8/1) on the front end and coast all the way around the expansive Belmont oval. The son of Medaglia d'Oro has been up close and won or run well in the past. The main concern for me is that he won last time out under Castellano when coming from 7th at Oaklawn, albeit when chasing a fast pace.
$5 WIN #3 Moretti
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
SOOOOO you scan the past performances here in the NY finale for a TURF route and what do you see? The first eleven have two first time starters and NINE who have run their most recent races on the dirt! Only 12-Wild North (8/1) exits a turf try when 4th HERE at this same one mile trip late last September. No bets here my friends.
PASS
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