We begin the second week of Summer Racing with Gulfstream selections as Belmont and Churchill won't begin their week until tomorrow. Good luck this week....
12:00 1-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 5f - TURF
My guess is the Wednesday opener stays on the inner course and if so, the one to beat is 3-Platinumcents (5/2) who's lightly raced with only three starts. And one of those came in 2018! Returned off the extended break - which is a good sign - and quickly cashed in her chips after the opening quarter on the main track for double today's price tag. Dropped down to this $12.5K level and moved to the turf last time out. Was bumped at the start and gave up multiple lengths, but closed well to get third place money while earning a career best figure. Add blinkers today, which is a 27% winning angle for the barn and that led to a bullet work. Expect new rider Edgard Zayas to have her closer to the pace today. 5-Rank and File (4/1) has earned two figures in three starts that would beat that top figure, BUT....the first came on Hawthorne dirt last November; the second came vs. $25K 2-lifetime runners when beaten nearly a dozen lengths. Neither of those seem legitimate figures, the last out 17 is unreliable as it was in a Tampa off-the-turf race. Mixed reviews. If this does get moved to the main track then MTO: 13-Uncaptured Ruby (8/5) would be a standout. Not only because she WANTS the dirt, but her last out 55 Beyer when coming off the shelf vs. better dirt maidens, resulting in a 2nd place finish beaten less than two lengths was ALSO SOME 14 LENGTHS clear of the show filly. WOW.
$5 WIN #3 Platinumcents
$15 WIN #13 Uncaptured Ruby (MTO)
12:30 2-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming (2yo) 41/2 furlongs
Difficult to predict this high level ($50K) juvenile event with all of them being first timers. 3-Venetian Dream (2/1) goes for Larry Rivelli who shows a 31% mark with debut runners and 30% with two-year-olds. But to be fair, Rivelli usually scores those big numbers at Arlington, and were this an AP event I'd more inclined to play his runner. 7-Sezan (4/1) features strong human connections with trainer Ralph Nicks, usually the leading maiden 2yo conditioner in So Fla this time of the year, with top speed rider Emisael Jaramillo.
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 8f - TURF
At least half a dozen of these restricted runners have recent Beyers that are very similar in the high 70's. The only one to earn an 80 recently came in a last out 2-lifetime win. 6-Rule Yourself (6/1) drops in class and has back numbers that would win this AND Paco Lopez. He'd be more appealing at a price to me. 4-Dillon Rocks (3/1) is the probable winner based on his solid good form and that last out win followed by a bullet work. Just thinking the step up in class is an issue, especially in restricted company.
1:34 4-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
In my humble opinion, the difference between "gambling" and "playing the races" is that in all other gambling games you are taking your chances, playing the odds and hoping for an outcome. At the races YOU interpret the information and YOU decide if you want to play and how much. This race does not fall into that category, but is more of a gambling scenario because I wouldn't have much confidence in any of these. 7-Tempus (5/2) looks best on paper and goes third off the bench so we'd anticipate a "best yet" effort. BUT....last time out when dropped from $40K to $12.5K all we got was a well-beaten fourth. If able to run back to his October effort at Belmont going 7f he's the winner. Doesn't help matters that the barn is 1-for-22; Paco rides. 9-Viper (4/1) goes for a 21% barn and was 5th at this one-turn mile last time, but beaten 15 plus lengths. Go figure.
2:05 5-Gulfstream Maiden Special (2yo) 5f - TURF
Two-year-olds, next to none of them with experience and absolutely NONE of them with a race on the grass, so...... I would think Todd Pletcher's 5-Lady Quintessa (4/1) will run well upon debut, and especially being a Repole runner. But IF Lady Quintessa was "high regarded" I think she'd be with the NY string - especially with the owner being NY-based Michael Repole. Not willing to bet here either - but I CERTAINLY would not back any of the Wesley Ward runners - two of them - in here.
2:37 6-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 5f - TURF
The DRF Best of the Day is 1-Remaster (7/5) who's lightly raced and in two of her last three starts, vs. better, has earned identical Beyer figures in five furlong turf sprints that beat all but 4 of the combined 66 numbers on the page (and one of those was on the dirt). She drops an open $50k starter into this $25K non-winners of two lifetime event. I like that for the FIRST TIME in her career she makes a second consecutive start without going to the bench. This comes after moving into the Bobby Dibona barn prior to her last start. She was a good third vs. that richer group last time out and I expect a move forward today. 8-Young Raymond (4/1) the danger with an outside draw and a rider change to Paco Lopez. Look for her to be sent and try to steal this on the drop - also from an optional $50K open event to this restricted spot.
3:09 7-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
Four of the seven entered here have taken turns beating one another and normally I'd toss those for the "new shooter." But in this case two of the three "newbies" are last out maiden claiming winners and the other was just beaten in a $25K 2-lifetime event....don't think she can move into open company to score. Of the "old friends," I'd like to think that perhaps 7-Hartling (4/1) can rebound. Last time out she entered an event like this, going a one-turn mile like today, with a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance. Sent off as the 4/5 favorite she could not withstand the closing kick of one of today's rivals. Today Hartling comes in off a barn change and gets Emsiael Jaramillo who I think will send the filly and try to steal it. If left alone she can rebound at a much nicer price today.
3:41 8-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
I'll freely admit that you have to "drink the kool-aid" to buy into my top choice, but hear me out. 6-Heir Ball (7/2) was sent to the front and dueled through wicked splits last time out before weakening to be a best of the rest 2nd as the prohibitive 4/5 favorite. This was in a $16K event and today we're running in an entry level allowance with a $25K tag, which the 6yo mare must carry because she HAS WON at this level. Here are the angles.....first, that last race effort was the first time since July 2018 that she was sent to the front! So to run that well while out of her comfort zone has to be a positive. Second, she was claimed away last time by trainer David Carlos. The barn is a sharp 37% first off the claim with a huge $5.97 ROI for every $2 bet. That Carlos RAISES her up into a $25K AOC spot off a $16K claim speaks to confidence I think. New rider Jaramillo sits just off the pace to get the win for the new ownership and trainer.
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC / NC (3yo) 8 furlongs
This easily could be a graded stakes event as it features the winners of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, the winner of the Hutcheson Stakes, the winner of the Limehouse Stakes, and the winner of the Smooth Air Stakes. All on a Wednesday afternoon under allowance conditions! Hoping the crowd sees this as a more open affair than the morning line maker because I think that today belongs to 1-Ete Indien (6/5) who apparently has lured jockey Florent Geroux back to South Florida to ride today. After two turf events to begin his career the colt started his 3yo season with a virtual wire-to-wire win in allowance company at this one-turn mile. Ambitiously placed in the Grade 3 Holy Bull he set the pace to the far turn and dueled with current Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz The Law into the stretch before being outfinished by that one, but held for second. Returning four weeks later in the Gr 2 Ftn of Youth while Tiz the Law bypassed the race, Ete Indien went virtually wire to wire again, drawing off by eight plus lengths with Geroux up for the first time. Last time out going nine furlongs he was drawn wide and dueled with 4-Shivaree (9/2) before getting to the front and then yielding to that one late while third behind Tiz the Law. Today he adds blinkers and I think he's a very likely winner. Shivaree outran his 80/1 odds when 2nd in the Gr 1 Fla Derby and I think he returns to he usual level of competition today. Should those two duel each other into submission then this sets up beautifully for Gr 3 Sam Davis winner 7-Sole Volante (9/5) who was 2nd best in the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby when trying to close from out of the clouds. Of the three noted in here I think his connections are more thinking long term, like the Grade 1 Belmont at 9f later this month.
4:45 10-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 8 furlongs
4-Geonosis (3/1) spent his first ten races largely overmatched against very good competition. In the tenth start while showing but a single win he dropped in for a $35K tag in 2L company. Another third. Then off the shelf he plunged to $6K 2L and went virtually wire to wire at this one-turn mile. Last time out he was ambitiously placed in against $20K 3L runners at this same mile trip and finished well to be third. Plunges again today for $8K and gets the hot riding apprentice Joe Trejos. Right to the front. 9-Snap Hook (4/1) lures Paco Lopez first off the claim for a barn that's 23% with those. This gelding is all over the map with turf, dirt, allowance, claiming tries and just two wins to show for sixteen tries. Maybe today.
Difficult to predict this high level ($50K) juvenile event with all of them being first timers. 3-Venetian Dream (2/1) goes for Larry Rivelli who shows a 31% mark with debut runners and 30% with two-year-olds. But to be fair, Rivelli usually scores those big numbers at Arlington, and were this an AP event I'd more inclined to play his runner. 7-Sezan (4/1) features strong human connections with trainer Ralph Nicks, usually the leading maiden 2yo conditioner in So Fla this time of the year, with top speed rider Emisael Jaramillo.
PASS
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 8f - TURF
At least half a dozen of these restricted runners have recent Beyers that are very similar in the high 70's. The only one to earn an 80 recently came in a last out 2-lifetime win. 6-Rule Yourself (6/1) drops in class and has back numbers that would win this AND Paco Lopez. He'd be more appealing at a price to me. 4-Dillon Rocks (3/1) is the probable winner based on his solid good form and that last out win followed by a bullet work. Just thinking the step up in class is an issue, especially in restricted company.
PASS
1:34 4-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
In my humble opinion, the difference between "gambling" and "playing the races" is that in all other gambling games you are taking your chances, playing the odds and hoping for an outcome. At the races YOU interpret the information and YOU decide if you want to play and how much. This race does not fall into that category, but is more of a gambling scenario because I wouldn't have much confidence in any of these. 7-Tempus (5/2) looks best on paper and goes third off the bench so we'd anticipate a "best yet" effort. BUT....last time out when dropped from $40K to $12.5K all we got was a well-beaten fourth. If able to run back to his October effort at Belmont going 7f he's the winner. Doesn't help matters that the barn is 1-for-22; Paco rides. 9-Viper (4/1) goes for a 21% barn and was 5th at this one-turn mile last time, but beaten 15 plus lengths. Go figure.
PASS
2:05 5-Gulfstream Maiden Special (2yo) 5f - TURF
Two-year-olds, next to none of them with experience and absolutely NONE of them with a race on the grass, so...... I would think Todd Pletcher's 5-Lady Quintessa (4/1) will run well upon debut, and especially being a Repole runner. But IF Lady Quintessa was "high regarded" I think she'd be with the NY string - especially with the owner being NY-based Michael Repole. Not willing to bet here either - but I CERTAINLY would not back any of the Wesley Ward runners - two of them - in here.
PASS
2:37 6-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 5f - TURF
The DRF Best of the Day is 1-Remaster (7/5) who's lightly raced and in two of her last three starts, vs. better, has earned identical Beyer figures in five furlong turf sprints that beat all but 4 of the combined 66 numbers on the page (and one of those was on the dirt). She drops an open $50k starter into this $25K non-winners of two lifetime event. I like that for the FIRST TIME in her career she makes a second consecutive start without going to the bench. This comes after moving into the Bobby Dibona barn prior to her last start. She was a good third vs. that richer group last time out and I expect a move forward today. 8-Young Raymond (4/1) the danger with an outside draw and a rider change to Paco Lopez. Look for her to be sent and try to steal this on the drop - also from an optional $50K open event to this restricted spot.
$10 WIN #1 Remaster
3:09 7-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
Four of the seven entered here have taken turns beating one another and normally I'd toss those for the "new shooter." But in this case two of the three "newbies" are last out maiden claiming winners and the other was just beaten in a $25K 2-lifetime event....don't think she can move into open company to score. Of the "old friends," I'd like to think that perhaps 7-Hartling (4/1) can rebound. Last time out she entered an event like this, going a one-turn mile like today, with a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance. Sent off as the 4/5 favorite she could not withstand the closing kick of one of today's rivals. Today Hartling comes in off a barn change and gets Emsiael Jaramillo who I think will send the filly and try to steal it. If left alone she can rebound at a much nicer price today.
$5 WIN #7 Hartling
3:41 8-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
I'll freely admit that you have to "drink the kool-aid" to buy into my top choice, but hear me out. 6-Heir Ball (7/2) was sent to the front and dueled through wicked splits last time out before weakening to be a best of the rest 2nd as the prohibitive 4/5 favorite. This was in a $16K event and today we're running in an entry level allowance with a $25K tag, which the 6yo mare must carry because she HAS WON at this level. Here are the angles.....first, that last race effort was the first time since July 2018 that she was sent to the front! So to run that well while out of her comfort zone has to be a positive. Second, she was claimed away last time by trainer David Carlos. The barn is a sharp 37% first off the claim with a huge $5.97 ROI for every $2 bet. That Carlos RAISES her up into a $25K AOC spot off a $16K claim speaks to confidence I think. New rider Jaramillo sits just off the pace to get the win for the new ownership and trainer.
$10 WIN #6 Heir Ball
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC / NC (3yo) 8 furlongs
This easily could be a graded stakes event as it features the winners of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, the winner of the Hutcheson Stakes, the winner of the Limehouse Stakes, and the winner of the Smooth Air Stakes. All on a Wednesday afternoon under allowance conditions! Hoping the crowd sees this as a more open affair than the morning line maker because I think that today belongs to 1-Ete Indien (6/5) who apparently has lured jockey Florent Geroux back to South Florida to ride today. After two turf events to begin his career the colt started his 3yo season with a virtual wire-to-wire win in allowance company at this one-turn mile. Ambitiously placed in the Grade 3 Holy Bull he set the pace to the far turn and dueled with current Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz The Law into the stretch before being outfinished by that one, but held for second. Returning four weeks later in the Gr 2 Ftn of Youth while Tiz the Law bypassed the race, Ete Indien went virtually wire to wire again, drawing off by eight plus lengths with Geroux up for the first time. Last time out going nine furlongs he was drawn wide and dueled with 4-Shivaree (9/2) before getting to the front and then yielding to that one late while third behind Tiz the Law. Today he adds blinkers and I think he's a very likely winner. Shivaree outran his 80/1 odds when 2nd in the Gr 1 Fla Derby and I think he returns to he usual level of competition today. Should those two duel each other into submission then this sets up beautifully for Gr 3 Sam Davis winner 7-Sole Volante (9/5) who was 2nd best in the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby when trying to close from out of the clouds. Of the three noted in here I think his connections are more thinking long term, like the Grade 1 Belmont at 9f later this month.
$15 WIN #1 Ete Indien
4:45 10-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 8 furlongs
4-Geonosis (3/1) spent his first ten races largely overmatched against very good competition. In the tenth start while showing but a single win he dropped in for a $35K tag in 2L company. Another third. Then off the shelf he plunged to $6K 2L and went virtually wire to wire at this one-turn mile. Last time out he was ambitiously placed in against $20K 3L runners at this same mile trip and finished well to be third. Plunges again today for $8K and gets the hot riding apprentice Joe Trejos. Right to the front. 9-Snap Hook (4/1) lures Paco Lopez first off the claim for a barn that's 23% with those. This gelding is all over the map with turf, dirt, allowance, claiming tries and just two wins to show for sixteen tries. Maybe today.
PASS
No comments:
Post a Comment