Simulcast Sunday - June 7
Thanks to Brisnet for providing past performances to Churchill and Belmont today. Here's a look at the Sunday races.....
1:00 1-Churchill Claiming 6 1/2 furlongs
For a nickel claiming event there are several legitimate class droppers who if they were the only one dropping would be odds on in here. So it boils down, in my opinion to the runner who shows up with their "A" game today. None is a better example of that than 3-Reachreachreach (5/2) who if he runs his top race those "A" races would beat all the other "A" races. And he's earned them against far better than this field. However, if he runs back to his loss last time out as the 8/5 favorite he's a very vulnerable favorite. Have to like trainer Roberto Diorodor's 44% win rate at Churchill Downs and that his main man David Cohen takes the call. Also, 'Reach has shown the ability to press the early leaders or come from off the pace....can adapt to any pace flow. The main "fear" is if 1-Have No Fear (3/1) bolts right to the front and never looks back as he did in a December and February 6f start at the Fair Grounds, also against tougher than this. Any kind of pace pressure has often softened him up for the final 16th however.
1:15 1-Belmont Claiming nw3L 6 furlongs
The only one of the eleven slated to face the starter in this restricted NY sprint has been away for several months - like nearly all the NYRA runners this week - but goes for a barn that's 1-for-his-last-46 with those kind. Oh. That's a gamble I'm not willing to take on 11-J J Loves Billy (6/1) today. Would be no surprise to see 1-Lookingbothways (7/2) win here today. Three back she drilled $40K maidens; two back she aired vs. $25K 2L rivals; two back she stretched to a one-turn mile and led into the lane vs. $25K 3L runners before weakening to third. Last time out, all the way to allowance runners and was outrun. Double drops into a $16K 3L and turns back to sprinting. The concern is that it took ELEVEN tries to break her maiden.
1:34 2-Churchill Claiming 8 1/2 furlongs
A cheap $8K event going two turns where these kind are typically consistently inconsistent. What makes this race so difficult is the presence of 6-Long On Luck (5/1) who's finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in nine of his last ten starts and that one came in a Grade 3 event! The biggest issue is that (a) he's not been seen since February 2019 and (b) he's plunging in class today. He's either TONS the best or an up the track "fire sale" item.
1:50 2-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
The two I like best in the second half of the early double are both Chad Brown runners, shocking...not. But what's nice is that one is a "main track only," and with the weather pattern we MIGHT get to see him run today. On the grass, debut maiden winner 1-Domestic Spending (3/1) gets the call despite having broken his maiden at Tampa rather than Gulfstream and earning a Beyer figure that doesn't indicate he's a superstar. But the turf runner with CLEARLY the best figures, 6-Get Smokin (5/2) - who's put up two straight 90 figures - is a faint-hearted front runner who I'm betting will be caught in the shadow of the wire despite dropping out of four straight stakes tries. 'Spending is owned by the powerful Klaravich Stables and gets top rider Irad Ortiz. You HAVE to believe that this 3yo colt will move forward in here today. On the main track MTO: 3-Mister Winston (1/1) was a surprise winner - for me at 9/1 - when he showed exceptional acceleration through the lane to run down an odds-on favorite (who's still a maiden by the way). Another that should enjoy a move forward today.
2:06 3-Churchill Claiming 7 furlongs
Looks to me like your choices here are between the cut back router or the stretch out 6f specialist. Neither has a clear-cut figure advantage and both come from legitimate barns. 2-Street To Indy (8/5) cuts back for Roberto Diodoro and like in the Louisville opener, if he runs to his best figures the rest are going to be cashing minor checks. But going back to September he's done nothing but go two turns. His career box does show a 1-for-3 record at the distance with one of his better figures as a top number. Not a fan that he was fifth as the beaten favorite at this level, again at two turns. 4-Lionite (3/1) is the likely sprinter to get the distance and he DID get 7f in a win last time out. BUT...two back he beat $40K "beaten" rivals and then dropped into an open $25K event going 7f and drew off to win. I'd be "more ok" with that if he had not been claimed and now has a new trainer and rider.
2:23 3-Belmont Claiming 6f
A complete mash-up of runners, most of them stepping up in class or returning off a loss at this level. The two "most likely" win candidates BOTH want the front end, so they probably cancel each other out. If you're playing here look for someone who can finish from mid-pack.
2:38 4-Churchill Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
I find it interesting and we're well into both cards and this is the first maiden event of the day. Mixed signals on 6-Quiet Company (3/1) in here today and I won't blame you if you don't play along but I think today's her day. On the downside she's already an 8x maiden and that's "over the limit" for me normally. But, as I often say, in handicapping there are no rules. So here's how I see her.....of the eight maiden losses you can toss (for today's purposes) the five dirt tries. Now we're looking at a filly who's 3/0-1-1 on the grass. And TWO of those were in turf sprints. Last time out was THE FIRST time Quiet Company went long - on any surface. And she went a mile on the grass, pressed the lead into the stretch, took the lead and was caught late. Second time long today should bring an improved effort and I like jockey Florent Geroux riding here today. I think she's a big time favorite and winner.
2:55 4-Belmont Maiden Special 81/2f - TURF
AE: 11-Sainte Mere Eglise (8/5) would be the logical top choice if someone were to scratch out and make room for her in the starting gate. The filly closed for second at Saratoga and was three clear clear of the show filly. Off a long break for a barn that is 16% with those with Irad Ortiz on board. If she doesn't get in the odds are good that 8-Beyond Brown (3/1) takes them coast to coast. She's got the best figures, and they are paired in her last two starts. And last time out she was more than half a dozen off the winner but nearly another half dozen clear of the show filly.
3:10 5-Churchill Starter Optional Claiming 8 furlongs
Two runners appear destined to determine who wins this starter event which requires a runner to have been in for a dime. I like 9-Ruler of the Nile (5/2) who has paired the best two recent figures (92-91) and has won at a one-turn mile previously. Five of his last six numbers are in the low 90's with the one exception being an 88 when in 2nd level allowance company. His win at a one-turn mile came here off two sharp sprint efforts, just like today. Ricardo Santana has the mount for the third consecutive time. 5-River Echo (5/1) has back class and figures to match, but not the same recent form. AND he turns back from Oaklawn's traditional meet closing marathon at a mile and 3/4 - tough to cut back six furlongs and run as well....even tougher after suffering a gut wrenching neck loss after dueling for a mile and an eighth and coming up short.
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Todd Pletcher stretches out 2-Microsecond (3/1) from a sharp debut at six furlongs about two and a half months ago. The 3yo gelding earned a big figure and should appreciate the added ground. Couple of bullet works in the holster and he looks primed for a big effort. Somebody would have to run bigger than expected to take him down and/or he'd have to not get the distance. Neither of those scenarios seem likely. Willing to dismiss the morning line favorite 9-Dancers For Token (5/2) who's already 0-for-8 with a second and third at this trip.
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 6 1/2 furlongs
Far from a mortal lock as there is some talent in here, but for me I think the short priced favorite is a very well deserving favorite and a most likely winner. 1-Free Enterprise (7/5) ran 2nd beaten less than a length in her first three starts. But the winners of BOTH of the first two races came right back to win and she came right back to win out of the third try. Facing first level allowance in her fourth start she drew off as much the best as a short-priced favorite....note the runner-up came right back to win. Last time out she tried a one-turn mile in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. Too far and too good for the Chad Brown runner. Now she's back to sprinting and allowance foes. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione leads the local standings and is in top form. Do you make something out of the fact he was also the regular rider for the program's second choice 6-Traveling Midas (5/2) who just cleared the entry level barrier. Classy 5-Much Better (7/2) is a speedy front runner with EIGHT stakes in her ten races showing. And SIX of those were graded. But regardless of the level, with the one exception when she was in an entry level race, she sets the pace and backs up late.
3:59 7-Belmont Claiming 7f - TURF
A lot....A LOT of questions in this high priced ($40K) turf "sprint." Not the least of which is the fact it's at an elongated seven furlongs. Turf sprinters who go 5f or 5 1/2f at most venues find the 6f trip at Belmont daunting. Now we find a furlong even further to deal with. No one looks the part in here and I could see the argument being made that the "best" filly in the field hasn't even been on the turf. Just watching.
4:14 7-Churchill Allowance nw1x 51/2f - TURF
In this very mixed bag of runners only five of 42 combined starts have earned figures that would contest with ALL four numbers posted by 9-Lead Guitar (3/1) and three of those came on the main track. Lead Guitar has an enviable post to allow Tyler Gaffalione to see how the pace unfolds inside of him because this 4yo daughter of Maclean's Music shows two races where pressing a quick pace and two races where closing strong from off the pace. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is nearly 20% with runners of a break like she shows here, and she's run well all three times when fresh. The Brisnet pp's have a class rating and while I don't use it often, the "Prime Power" rating often points out the winner when there is a big separation between the top one and the others. In here Lead Guitar earns a 141.7 rating and the next closest is 126.2....oh.
4:32 7-Belmont Allowance nw1x 81/2furlongs
All of these are single winners on the grass and like most entry level allowance events you've got a real mixed bag of past performances to consider. But with the head-scratching mix of angles aside, it looks like Chad Brown's 8-Graded On A Curve (5/2) is a likely winner here. Only been out six times and she's been first, second or third in five of them. The one time off the board she was beaten only 2 1/2, first time winners AND drew the comment, "....stymied in stretch, steadied repeatedly..." Oh. Irad Ortiz on the Klaravich Stable favorite. You might be concerned about the lack of wins and multiple "close but no cigar" finishes. BUT trouble and slow pace flows have been the issue. With a legitimate pace and a clean trip - all of which seem likely here - she's your winner.
4:46 8-Churchill Maiden Special 7 furlongs
Another one of "those races" where maybe you're best advised to watch because these are lightly raced runners and anything COULD happen. But of the "logical" win candidates it appears to me that the "most likely" winner is 2-Belfast Boy (9/2) based on his three races. There are others with good form and legitimate numbers. But in Belfast Boy you've got a horse who's improved in both starts and has a big time excuse in his debut when in traffic and then the rider apparently just stopped persevering. Second time out he went from six furlongs to 8 1/2 furlongs. He was up close, fell back, and made up ground late. Then last time out he moved to Churchill Downs and cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs. He drew the rail and sure enough was away slowly. Came up the inside and had to alter course at the 1/8th pole then closed quickly to be 2nd beaten only 3/4 of a length. Ascending figures as well. Looks better - marginally - than the rest.
5:04 8-Belmont Claiming 61/2furlongs
An exceptionally well balanced and matched field. Can't separate any of them from the rest. Just a complete pass for me.
5:18 9-Churchill AOC nw3x 81/2furlongs
Another wide, WIDE open event where I can't make a case for or against any of these. Tried, really did to find something to pass on, but nothing there.....moving on.
5:36 9-Belmont First Defence Stakes 7f - TURF
It's a bulky field going the middle distance seven furlongs which is not familiar to any of these. So, let's not get crazy. Chad Brown has what I think is the likely winner in 1-Flavius (7/2) who was 2-for-3 in Europe then was off for A YEAR. Came back at Aqueduct and was away awkwardly, but closed willingly to only be beaten three lengths in fourth. Next he was in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream, surged to the front at the top of the lane but was passed late. Now off since December the Juddmonte 5yo should be ready for his best yet in North America.
5:50 10-Churchill Maiden Claiming 81/2furlongs - TURF
Ian Wilkes' 9-Two By Two (9/2) took a giant step forward when trying the turf last time out for the first time and if the son of New Year's Day moves forward off that he'll be tough to run down under Chris Landeros, Wilkes' son-in-law. 1-Alfons Wade (7/2) is a Euro import but has run 2nd in two straight and makes his seventh start today having already piled up four in-the-money finishes.
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Special 6f - TURF
A $50K Maiden Special going six panels on the turf....many chances, go figure
For a nickel claiming event there are several legitimate class droppers who if they were the only one dropping would be odds on in here. So it boils down, in my opinion to the runner who shows up with their "A" game today. None is a better example of that than 3-Reachreachreach (5/2) who if he runs his top race those "A" races would beat all the other "A" races. And he's earned them against far better than this field. However, if he runs back to his loss last time out as the 8/5 favorite he's a very vulnerable favorite. Have to like trainer Roberto Diorodor's 44% win rate at Churchill Downs and that his main man David Cohen takes the call. Also, 'Reach has shown the ability to press the early leaders or come from off the pace....can adapt to any pace flow. The main "fear" is if 1-Have No Fear (3/1) bolts right to the front and never looks back as he did in a December and February 6f start at the Fair Grounds, also against tougher than this. Any kind of pace pressure has often softened him up for the final 16th however.
$10 WIN #3 Reachreachreach
1:15 1-Belmont Claiming nw3L 6 furlongs
The only one of the eleven slated to face the starter in this restricted NY sprint has been away for several months - like nearly all the NYRA runners this week - but goes for a barn that's 1-for-his-last-46 with those kind. Oh. That's a gamble I'm not willing to take on 11-J J Loves Billy (6/1) today. Would be no surprise to see 1-Lookingbothways (7/2) win here today. Three back she drilled $40K maidens; two back she aired vs. $25K 2L rivals; two back she stretched to a one-turn mile and led into the lane vs. $25K 3L runners before weakening to third. Last time out, all the way to allowance runners and was outrun. Double drops into a $16K 3L and turns back to sprinting. The concern is that it took ELEVEN tries to break her maiden.
PASS
1:34 2-Churchill Claiming 8 1/2 furlongs
A cheap $8K event going two turns where these kind are typically consistently inconsistent. What makes this race so difficult is the presence of 6-Long On Luck (5/1) who's finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in nine of his last ten starts and that one came in a Grade 3 event! The biggest issue is that (a) he's not been seen since February 2019 and (b) he's plunging in class today. He's either TONS the best or an up the track "fire sale" item.
PASS
1:50 2-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
The two I like best in the second half of the early double are both Chad Brown runners, shocking...not. But what's nice is that one is a "main track only," and with the weather pattern we MIGHT get to see him run today. On the grass, debut maiden winner 1-Domestic Spending (3/1) gets the call despite having broken his maiden at Tampa rather than Gulfstream and earning a Beyer figure that doesn't indicate he's a superstar. But the turf runner with CLEARLY the best figures, 6-Get Smokin (5/2) - who's put up two straight 90 figures - is a faint-hearted front runner who I'm betting will be caught in the shadow of the wire despite dropping out of four straight stakes tries. 'Spending is owned by the powerful Klaravich Stables and gets top rider Irad Ortiz. You HAVE to believe that this 3yo colt will move forward in here today. On the main track MTO: 3-Mister Winston (1/1) was a surprise winner - for me at 9/1 - when he showed exceptional acceleration through the lane to run down an odds-on favorite (who's still a maiden by the way). Another that should enjoy a move forward today.
$5 WIN #1 Domestic Spending (Turf)
$10 WIN #3 Mister Winston (MTO)
2:06 3-Churchill Claiming 7 furlongs
Looks to me like your choices here are between the cut back router or the stretch out 6f specialist. Neither has a clear-cut figure advantage and both come from legitimate barns. 2-Street To Indy (8/5) cuts back for Roberto Diodoro and like in the Louisville opener, if he runs to his best figures the rest are going to be cashing minor checks. But going back to September he's done nothing but go two turns. His career box does show a 1-for-3 record at the distance with one of his better figures as a top number. Not a fan that he was fifth as the beaten favorite at this level, again at two turns. 4-Lionite (3/1) is the likely sprinter to get the distance and he DID get 7f in a win last time out. BUT...two back he beat $40K "beaten" rivals and then dropped into an open $25K event going 7f and drew off to win. I'd be "more ok" with that if he had not been claimed and now has a new trainer and rider.
PASS
2:23 3-Belmont Claiming 6f
A complete mash-up of runners, most of them stepping up in class or returning off a loss at this level. The two "most likely" win candidates BOTH want the front end, so they probably cancel each other out. If you're playing here look for someone who can finish from mid-pack.
PASS
2:38 4-Churchill Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
I find it interesting and we're well into both cards and this is the first maiden event of the day. Mixed signals on 6-Quiet Company (3/1) in here today and I won't blame you if you don't play along but I think today's her day. On the downside she's already an 8x maiden and that's "over the limit" for me normally. But, as I often say, in handicapping there are no rules. So here's how I see her.....of the eight maiden losses you can toss (for today's purposes) the five dirt tries. Now we're looking at a filly who's 3/0-1-1 on the grass. And TWO of those were in turf sprints. Last time out was THE FIRST time Quiet Company went long - on any surface. And she went a mile on the grass, pressed the lead into the stretch, took the lead and was caught late. Second time long today should bring an improved effort and I like jockey Florent Geroux riding here today. I think she's a big time favorite and winner.
$15 WIN #6 Quiet Company
2:55 4-Belmont Maiden Special 81/2f - TURF
AE: 11-Sainte Mere Eglise (8/5) would be the logical top choice if someone were to scratch out and make room for her in the starting gate. The filly closed for second at Saratoga and was three clear clear of the show filly. Off a long break for a barn that is 16% with those with Irad Ortiz on board. If she doesn't get in the odds are good that 8-Beyond Brown (3/1) takes them coast to coast. She's got the best figures, and they are paired in her last two starts. And last time out she was more than half a dozen off the winner but nearly another half dozen clear of the show filly.
$5 WIN #11 Sainte Mere Eglise
3:10 5-Churchill Starter Optional Claiming 8 furlongs
Two runners appear destined to determine who wins this starter event which requires a runner to have been in for a dime. I like 9-Ruler of the Nile (5/2) who has paired the best two recent figures (92-91) and has won at a one-turn mile previously. Five of his last six numbers are in the low 90's with the one exception being an 88 when in 2nd level allowance company. His win at a one-turn mile came here off two sharp sprint efforts, just like today. Ricardo Santana has the mount for the third consecutive time. 5-River Echo (5/1) has back class and figures to match, but not the same recent form. AND he turns back from Oaklawn's traditional meet closing marathon at a mile and 3/4 - tough to cut back six furlongs and run as well....even tougher after suffering a gut wrenching neck loss after dueling for a mile and an eighth and coming up short.
$5 WIN #9 Ruler of the Nile
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Todd Pletcher stretches out 2-Microsecond (3/1) from a sharp debut at six furlongs about two and a half months ago. The 3yo gelding earned a big figure and should appreciate the added ground. Couple of bullet works in the holster and he looks primed for a big effort. Somebody would have to run bigger than expected to take him down and/or he'd have to not get the distance. Neither of those scenarios seem likely. Willing to dismiss the morning line favorite 9-Dancers For Token (5/2) who's already 0-for-8 with a second and third at this trip.
$10 WIN #2 Microsecond
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 6 1/2 furlongs
Far from a mortal lock as there is some talent in here, but for me I think the short priced favorite is a very well deserving favorite and a most likely winner. 1-Free Enterprise (7/5) ran 2nd beaten less than a length in her first three starts. But the winners of BOTH of the first two races came right back to win and she came right back to win out of the third try. Facing first level allowance in her fourth start she drew off as much the best as a short-priced favorite....note the runner-up came right back to win. Last time out she tried a one-turn mile in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. Too far and too good for the Chad Brown runner. Now she's back to sprinting and allowance foes. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione leads the local standings and is in top form. Do you make something out of the fact he was also the regular rider for the program's second choice 6-Traveling Midas (5/2) who just cleared the entry level barrier. Classy 5-Much Better (7/2) is a speedy front runner with EIGHT stakes in her ten races showing. And SIX of those were graded. But regardless of the level, with the one exception when she was in an entry level race, she sets the pace and backs up late.
$15 WIN #1 Free Enterprise
3:59 7-Belmont Claiming 7f - TURF
A lot....A LOT of questions in this high priced ($40K) turf "sprint." Not the least of which is the fact it's at an elongated seven furlongs. Turf sprinters who go 5f or 5 1/2f at most venues find the 6f trip at Belmont daunting. Now we find a furlong even further to deal with. No one looks the part in here and I could see the argument being made that the "best" filly in the field hasn't even been on the turf. Just watching.
PASS
4:14 7-Churchill Allowance nw1x 51/2f - TURF
In this very mixed bag of runners only five of 42 combined starts have earned figures that would contest with ALL four numbers posted by 9-Lead Guitar (3/1) and three of those came on the main track. Lead Guitar has an enviable post to allow Tyler Gaffalione to see how the pace unfolds inside of him because this 4yo daughter of Maclean's Music shows two races where pressing a quick pace and two races where closing strong from off the pace. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is nearly 20% with runners of a break like she shows here, and she's run well all three times when fresh. The Brisnet pp's have a class rating and while I don't use it often, the "Prime Power" rating often points out the winner when there is a big separation between the top one and the others. In here Lead Guitar earns a 141.7 rating and the next closest is 126.2....oh.
$10 WIN #9 Lead Guitar
4:32 7-Belmont Allowance nw1x 81/2furlongs
All of these are single winners on the grass and like most entry level allowance events you've got a real mixed bag of past performances to consider. But with the head-scratching mix of angles aside, it looks like Chad Brown's 8-Graded On A Curve (5/2) is a likely winner here. Only been out six times and she's been first, second or third in five of them. The one time off the board she was beaten only 2 1/2, first time winners AND drew the comment, "....stymied in stretch, steadied repeatedly..." Oh. Irad Ortiz on the Klaravich Stable favorite. You might be concerned about the lack of wins and multiple "close but no cigar" finishes. BUT trouble and slow pace flows have been the issue. With a legitimate pace and a clean trip - all of which seem likely here - she's your winner.
$10 WIN #8 Graded On The Curve
4:46 8-Churchill Maiden Special 7 furlongs
Another one of "those races" where maybe you're best advised to watch because these are lightly raced runners and anything COULD happen. But of the "logical" win candidates it appears to me that the "most likely" winner is 2-Belfast Boy (9/2) based on his three races. There are others with good form and legitimate numbers. But in Belfast Boy you've got a horse who's improved in both starts and has a big time excuse in his debut when in traffic and then the rider apparently just stopped persevering. Second time out he went from six furlongs to 8 1/2 furlongs. He was up close, fell back, and made up ground late. Then last time out he moved to Churchill Downs and cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs. He drew the rail and sure enough was away slowly. Came up the inside and had to alter course at the 1/8th pole then closed quickly to be 2nd beaten only 3/4 of a length. Ascending figures as well. Looks better - marginally - than the rest.
$5 WIN #2 Belfast Boy
5:04 8-Belmont Claiming 61/2furlongs
An exceptionally well balanced and matched field. Can't separate any of them from the rest. Just a complete pass for me.
PASS
5:18 9-Churchill AOC nw3x 81/2furlongs
Another wide, WIDE open event where I can't make a case for or against any of these. Tried, really did to find something to pass on, but nothing there.....moving on.
PASS
5:36 9-Belmont First Defence Stakes 7f - TURF
It's a bulky field going the middle distance seven furlongs which is not familiar to any of these. So, let's not get crazy. Chad Brown has what I think is the likely winner in 1-Flavius (7/2) who was 2-for-3 in Europe then was off for A YEAR. Came back at Aqueduct and was away awkwardly, but closed willingly to only be beaten three lengths in fourth. Next he was in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream, surged to the front at the top of the lane but was passed late. Now off since December the Juddmonte 5yo should be ready for his best yet in North America.
$10 WIN #1 Flavius
5:50 10-Churchill Maiden Claiming 81/2furlongs - TURF
Ian Wilkes' 9-Two By Two (9/2) took a giant step forward when trying the turf last time out for the first time and if the son of New Year's Day moves forward off that he'll be tough to run down under Chris Landeros, Wilkes' son-in-law. 1-Alfons Wade (7/2) is a Euro import but has run 2nd in two straight and makes his seventh start today having already piled up four in-the-money finishes.
$5 WIN #9 Two By Two
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Special 6f - TURF
A $50K Maiden Special going six panels on the turf....many chances, go figure
PASS
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