Saturday June 6
It's a BIG DAY on the national racing scene and rather than analysis one (or two) tracks, today's selection sheet is for multiple tracks. Good luck on Santa Anita Derby Day 2020.
1:00 1-Churchill Allowance nw1x 6 furlongs
Strictly a class play as 6-Liz's Cable Girl (3/1) has never been in for a tag. To be fair she's not won a race since taking Monmouth's Spruce Fir as the 3/5 favorite in July. But the class drop and she spent the winter racing at Oaklawn. Moves into the Tom Amoss barn today and she shows three works for the new conditioner. Should be prominently place while pressing out of the open air box under Joe Talamo.
$5 WIN #6 Liz's Cable Girl
1:00 1-Woodbine Claiming nw3L 5 furlongs
Welcome back Woodbine! I always enjoy playing the Toronto track and especially their Wednesday night cards. The 2020 opener is a non-winners of three lifetime and I'll admit I'm not a fan that 8-Honduras (2/1) is posted wide and more importantly is just 2-for-15. BUT I cannot get past his work over the local Tapeta surface when he fired a best of 132 bullet. Yes, one hundred and thirty-two. Goes for one of the top barns on the circuit, Norman McKnight and should be up close to the top of the lane before taking over.
$10 WIN #8 Hondruas
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming 6 furlongs
Trainer Bobby Dibona claimed 4-Combination (6/5) out of a race last Friday for this same $12.5K where he drew off as he pleased as the odds-on 1-2 choice. That victory was the fifth in his last six starts and for four different trainers. Paco Lopez gets on board to keep the winning streak alive. I would imagine the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo takes 3-Starship Apollo (9/2) right to the front and tries to steal it. He's an ELEVEN time winner at GP and would be no surprise if allowed to dictate terms all on his own.
2:06 3-Churchill Allowance NC 11f - TURF
It's really, REALLY hard to look past 4-Gentle Ruler (4/5) in here today. This marathon specialist has won five of her last seven, all of them at this distance or further. She's posted Beyer figures of 92 or better in all of them, and that wins here. Note that the last three of those wins came in stakes, two of them graded. And she has a "recent" race when 2nd best in the Gr 3 Orchid chasing loose on the lead, and repeat GP stakes winner Mean Mary. BIG TIME. If this moves to the main track it would come down to 1-Vexatious (3/1) under Florent Geroux or MTO: 7-Another Broad (2/1) with Tyler Gaffalione. The former has run most of her races on the turf, but has run on dirt in her last three including a good pace-setting try in the Gr 1 Spinster. The latter shows nothing but stakes tries, but only a single win last April. Still, facing turf runners would be a big edge for her.
2:06 3-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 5f
Not a fan of playing cheap non-winner of two lifetime events, but 4-Bexar (9/5) seems to hold a significant advantage in only having two career starts while the other nine have a combined 131 trips to the post with but nine wins. Big time ouch. Bexar also has run sharply in both efforts over a synthetic surface (Turfway this winter). Debuted in a $30K event and wired the field. Came back off a six week break and ran third in an entry level, open allowance. Now plunges to a nickel for Wesley Ward. If healthy he's the winner.
$5 WIN #4 Combination
1:50 2-Belmont Claiming nw2L 6f - TURF
You'd think that horses that sprint on turf can be compared like apples to apples. But just like there is a HUGE advantage in a one-turn mile race for horses that have run well at a one-turn mile so too is the case with a 6 furlong turf race. This is a vastly different and unique kind of event, and you can't easily assume a 5f or 5 1/2 f turf runner will negotiate the longer sprint down the back stretch and further distance overall. So, much like the 6 1/2 furlong turf races they used to race down the hill at Santa Anita where you HAD to find someone who'd done that, here I'm looking for a 6f turf sprinter. And there's 4-Stand Up (3/1) who has raced all five times on the grass and four of them in sprints. But his last two were his best and he won a 6f turf sprint here in a $40K maiden event mowing them down from off the pace as the favorite. Then facing first time winners he came FLYING from last in a bulky thirteen horse field to miss by 1 1/4 lengths with a new career high mark. That was in mid-November so the layoff is a concern, but trainer Ron Falcone is a 27% winner ($4.96 ROI) with those kind. He's struggled this year, going only 2-for-41 (ouch) but looks to have the most likely winner in here on the drop in for a tag and 2-lifetime company with the field's best, last race figure.
You'd think that horses that sprint on turf can be compared like apples to apples. But just like there is a HUGE advantage in a one-turn mile race for horses that have run well at a one-turn mile so too is the case with a 6 furlong turf race. This is a vastly different and unique kind of event, and you can't easily assume a 5f or 5 1/2 f turf runner will negotiate the longer sprint down the back stretch and further distance overall. So, much like the 6 1/2 furlong turf races they used to race down the hill at Santa Anita where you HAD to find someone who'd done that, here I'm looking for a 6f turf sprinter. And there's 4-Stand Up (3/1) who has raced all five times on the grass and four of them in sprints. But his last two were his best and he won a 6f turf sprint here in a $40K maiden event mowing them down from off the pace as the favorite. Then facing first time winners he came FLYING from last in a bulky thirteen horse field to miss by 1 1/4 lengths with a new career high mark. That was in mid-November so the layoff is a concern, but trainer Ron Falcone is a 27% winner ($4.96 ROI) with those kind. He's struggled this year, going only 2-for-41 (ouch) but looks to have the most likely winner in here on the drop in for a tag and 2-lifetime company with the field's best, last race figure.
$5 WIN #4 Stand Up
2:06 3-Churchill Allowance NC 11f - TURF
It's really, REALLY hard to look past 4-Gentle Ruler (4/5) in here today. This marathon specialist has won five of her last seven, all of them at this distance or further. She's posted Beyer figures of 92 or better in all of them, and that wins here. Note that the last three of those wins came in stakes, two of them graded. And she has a "recent" race when 2nd best in the Gr 3 Orchid chasing loose on the lead, and repeat GP stakes winner Mean Mary. BIG TIME. If this moves to the main track it would come down to 1-Vexatious (3/1) under Florent Geroux or MTO: 7-Another Broad (2/1) with Tyler Gaffalione. The former has run most of her races on the turf, but has run on dirt in her last three including a good pace-setting try in the Gr 1 Spinster. The latter shows nothing but stakes tries, but only a single win last April. Still, facing turf runners would be a big edge for her.
$20 WIN #4 Gentle Ruler (Turf)
2:06 3-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 5f
Not a fan of playing cheap non-winner of two lifetime events, but 4-Bexar (9/5) seems to hold a significant advantage in only having two career starts while the other nine have a combined 131 trips to the post with but nine wins. Big time ouch. Bexar also has run sharply in both efforts over a synthetic surface (Turfway this winter). Debuted in a $30K event and wired the field. Came back off a six week break and ran third in an entry level, open allowance. Now plunges to a nickel for Wesley Ward. If healthy he's the winner.
$5 WIN #4 Bexar
2:10 5-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 51/2 furlongs
Trainer Larry Rivelli has BIG figures for horses coming off a layoff, so it was no surprise when 3-Shez Stuck Up (8/5) left the gate as the 4/5 favorite in a field of ten maiden claimers for a $12.5K price tag. But, she was posted wide in the 10-slot and broke slowly. Instead of being close to the lead she found herself in midpack and made a strong bid to get second money while more than three lengths clear of the show filly. The only question I have today is that race came just eight days ago. The drop down a notch helps and considering it was only five furlongs you COULD say it was a sharp five furlong work. And to her credit she was best-of-the-rest second from a wide slot and using a running style she's never used. With a clean break and if not out of gas, she gets her diploma today. None of this must bother GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti who makes her the BEST BET today.
$10 WIN #3 Shez Stuck Up
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Special 6f
The most likely rival to upset the short-priced morning line favorite, 5-Dreams Of Tomorrow (1/1) is a debut runner from So Cal and he'll have to be a real runner to take down the chalk. Dreams of Tomorrow debuted for Shug McGaughey at Gulfstream in late April, and it's well documented that the Hall of Fame trainer rarely has them ready to run at first asking. Add to this, the 3yo Phipps homebred drew the rail AND broke last of ten. You'd have to figure, watching the race that he's done. But instead he rushed up and contested a wicked :44.4 pace in a SEVEN furlong contest and held well to finish third. That's a HUGE effort all things considered. Now with one under his belt, turning back to 6f and getting Jose Ortiz to handle his first try over the sweeping Belmont track he's a very likely winner with any second race improvement at all. 4-Pardsy (9/2) is sent out by So Cal based Doug O'Neill who wisely shipped here early and got a work in over the track. Castellano will ride and if the top one falters, he's the most likely alternative.
$10 WIN #5 Dreams Of Tomorrow
2:42 6-Gulfstream The Soldier's Dancer 81/2f - OFF TURF
IF we don't get too much rain Friday and through the early part of the afternoon Saturday this one COULD be run over the inner course, but we'll first look at the main track options. I'd have to believe there will be some defections from the field if off the turf and that would move 10-Last Judgement (5/1) more to the inside. Todd Pletcher's runner makes his fourth start off the shelf and first of this form cycle around two turns. He should enjoy a stalking trip behind what projects to be a fairly contested early scenario. And he's done this before.....off his MSW sprint win here he shipped to Oaklawn and won a two turn allowance at this mile and a sixteenth trip last winter. Last summer he was a good fourth of six chasing stablemate King For A Day who upset 3yo of the year Maximum Security in Monmouth's Pegasus. Off from June to this winter he won his sprint return, as most Pletcher layoff runners do over the winter meet. And his last two came against arguably much stronger rivals. He was well beaten in the OPEN Sir Shackleton by a graded winner and then last time out he was third to the highly regarded Chad Brown runner Network Effect (my best bet that day). Those two 7f races should have him set for a big effort today. MTO: 4-Noble Drama (2/1) the main danger, but my concern for his chances are that he comes from more than mid-pack back and I just don't think that's the kind of style that wins going to the first finish line here. Let's see how the speed plays out. ON THE GRASS..... 5-Muggsamatic (5/2) would be a strong play for me. He's got solid numbers, he's run over less than firm ground with good success and he's in sharp form.
$10 WIN 10-Last Judgement
$10 WIN 5-Muggsamatic (Turf)
3:42 6-Churchill Claiming 8 1/2 furlongs
Clearly two things are obvious in scanning the runners for this $16K two turn event. First, the best thoroughbred in here is 4-House Limit (4/1) who's earned four figures that literally would put her across the finish line before most of these turn for home. But, the second thing that's crystal clear is that House Limit has had problems. Three sharp tries to start her career, followed by two dismal efforts with a 20+ point decline on the Beyer scale. Off from April to November and three sharp efforts, but in the fourth try in February she was "eased and walked off." Uh oh. That was in an allowance event and today Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott plunges her in for the first time tagged since winning a $50K 2-lifetime race last year. BIG class drop, off an "eased" effort does not inspire confidence. BUT it's Bill Mott and I think he'd retire her if he didn't think she had a chance rather than race her to get rid of her.
$5 WIN #4 House Limit
3:46 8-Gulfstream The Ginger Brew 81/2f - OFF TURF
Like the co-featured 6th, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one stay on the turf, but like the previous we'll look at both options. On the main track I REALLY like Todd Pletcher's 6-Bellera (3/1) who makes her second start off a brief respite. As a 3yo in six starts she had three wins and two seconds and lost the rider in the other one - toss that "race." Came back as a 4yo in January off a win going a mile and an eighth in the Gr 3 Comely to win the Ladies' Handicap. Then last time out, first start in So Fla on May 16 she ran in the 7f Musical Romance. Off at the back of the pack she made a belated run to take down third money behind loose on the lead Lady's Island who is ultra quick and no one was catching her that day. Now Bellera gets what she wants, two turns with an up close trip under Edgard Zayas. ON THE GRASS..... 3-Kelsey's Cross (5/2) enters this state-bred listed event after having faced FIVE straight fields of graded stakes runners. Luca Panici will guide the 4yo filly today for trainer Patrick Biancone.
3:48 6-Woodbine AOC / C 5 furlongs
Granted the DRF analyst for Woodbine is not one who influences my thinking, but I do think he's on to something in this wide open affair. Ron Gierkink makes 6-Circle of Friends (12/1) his BEST BET today. What....at 12/1? Yes. His stable mate is the 5/2 favorite and if you compare the two, both have faced Canadian champion sprinter Pink Floyd on several occasions and it's Circle of Friends who has finished closer to him that the favorite. In addition, jockey Patrick Husbands has been on both, and he rides Circle of Friends here. Last season, when Woodbine opened Circle of Friends showed up off a layoff in a 5f sprint and won as the favorite. Today he's 12/1 and enters off a best of 62 bullet work. That all works for me as he COULD be our "Daymaker."
4:14 7-Churchill Maiden Special 7 furlongs
On "Opening Day" here in Louisville (May 16) one of my wins came with a Bill Mott runner in a MSW event. Mott rarely has them ready right off the bench and Say Moi ran a big 2nd to a talented Chad Brown runner at GP in her debut. She turned for home and opened up like she'd win by a pole. Now granted part of it was she was tiring, but also 6-Skinny Dip (7/2) was flying from well back in the field. Say Moi held on by more than a length but Skinny Dip was open lengths clear of the field. That came off the bench and at six furlongs. With one under her belt, the field's best last race Beyer, and a stretch to seven furlongs she looks very solid under perennial top rider Corey Lanerie.
$15 WIN #6 Bellera
$10 WIN #3 Kelsey's Cross (Turf)
3:48 6-Woodbine AOC / C 5 furlongs
Granted the DRF analyst for Woodbine is not one who influences my thinking, but I do think he's on to something in this wide open affair. Ron Gierkink makes 6-Circle of Friends (12/1) his BEST BET today. What....at 12/1? Yes. His stable mate is the 5/2 favorite and if you compare the two, both have faced Canadian champion sprinter Pink Floyd on several occasions and it's Circle of Friends who has finished closer to him that the favorite. In addition, jockey Patrick Husbands has been on both, and he rides Circle of Friends here. Last season, when Woodbine opened Circle of Friends showed up off a layoff in a 5f sprint and won as the favorite. Today he's 12/1 and enters off a best of 62 bullet work. That all works for me as he COULD be our "Daymaker."
$10 WIN #6 Circle of Friends
3:59 6-Belmont Grade 2 Fort Marcy 9f - TURF
It's a graded stakes event on the turf and yes, Virginia, there is a Chad Brown runner. But as almost always the issue, there's more than one. I like the lightly raced Euro invader 4-Flop Shot (6/1) who goes for Peter Brant and is making his first start in North America (and for Brown). You HAVE to like that he has NEVER run a bad race. Third and second in his first two starts he then scored as the favorite at Chantily Race Course. Off the maiden win he came right back to upset a Group 3 event at 10/1 odds. In his final two starts he was third behind Headman in a pair of Group 2 races. Note that the winner ran 5th at 4/1 in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes behind multiple Group 1 winner Magical and world traveler Magic Wand next time out. As good as any others in here AND at a price. 6-Synchrony (4/1) has won over $800K on the turf and is a multiple graded stakes winner. Like that he's 9/3-2-2 with over $500K in earnings at this distance. Johnny V rides.
It's a graded stakes event on the turf and yes, Virginia, there is a Chad Brown runner. But as almost always the issue, there's more than one. I like the lightly raced Euro invader 4-Flop Shot (6/1) who goes for Peter Brant and is making his first start in North America (and for Brown). You HAVE to like that he has NEVER run a bad race. Third and second in his first two starts he then scored as the favorite at Chantily Race Course. Off the maiden win he came right back to upset a Group 3 event at 10/1 odds. In his final two starts he was third behind Headman in a pair of Group 2 races. Note that the winner ran 5th at 4/1 in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes behind multiple Group 1 winner Magical and world traveler Magic Wand next time out. As good as any others in here AND at a price. 6-Synchrony (4/1) has won over $800K on the turf and is a multiple graded stakes winner. Like that he's 9/3-2-2 with over $500K in earnings at this distance. Johnny V rides.
$10 WIN #4 Flop Shot
4:14 7-Churchill Maiden Special 7 furlongs
On "Opening Day" here in Louisville (May 16) one of my wins came with a Bill Mott runner in a MSW event. Mott rarely has them ready right off the bench and Say Moi ran a big 2nd to a talented Chad Brown runner at GP in her debut. She turned for home and opened up like she'd win by a pole. Now granted part of it was she was tiring, but also 6-Skinny Dip (7/2) was flying from well back in the field. Say Moi held on by more than a length but Skinny Dip was open lengths clear of the field. That came off the bench and at six furlongs. With one under her belt, the field's best last race Beyer, and a stretch to seven furlongs she looks very solid under perennial top rider Corey Lanerie.
$10 WIN #6 Skinny Dip
4:18 9-Gulfstream The Game Face 61/2 furlongs
THREE stakes events today and in this one we KNOW everyone will run (barring some physical issue) because it's a main track sprint. There's talent in here and to be fair, I get it if you're concerned that my BEST BET today at Gulfstream makes her stakes debut. But, 5-Boerne (2/1) is in white-hot form. After fading in the GPW debut she returned over the big track here in Hallandale and smoked a MSW field going wire to wire at today's 6 1/2 furlong distance while ignored on the board at 13/1 odds. Stepped up into an open, entry level allowance and went off as the tepid 5/2 favorite and wired the field impressively. Went up into a no conditions allowance and again went wire to wire. Her back to back to back wins have been by a combined 15 lengths. If all that isn't enough to convince you scan the pp's - there is no one, NOBODY else who wants the lead. The best bet in racing is the uncontested, loose on the lead front runner. And in this case she's not only the lone speed she's in top form and on a roll. Add in to the mix her most recent workout....a bullet work, best of one hundred and three morning moves - yes, you read that right, 103. Long, LONG GONE as today's GP Best.
4:31 3-Santa Anita AOC nw1x 6 1/2 furlongs
The one public handicapper that I still follow and who's opinion can influence mine is So Cal analyst Brad Free and it's his insight that leads to the top choice in the third out west. 4-Kneedeepinsnow (5/2) came back off of a five month layoff, moved from synthetic to "real dirt" and dueled from gate to wire, a head in second all the way around the track. The splits of :21.4 and :45 flat, along with - as Free points out - the fact he's the ONLY front runner in the field, should put him loose on the easiest of leads. With no one to challenge him jockey Abel Cedillo can relax him and ration the speed to last the extended furlong distance today. Right to the front, long gone.
$30 WIN #5 Boerne
4:31 3-Santa Anita AOC nw1x 6 1/2 furlongs
The one public handicapper that I still follow and who's opinion can influence mine is So Cal analyst Brad Free and it's his insight that leads to the top choice in the third out west. 4-Kneedeepinsnow (5/2) came back off of a five month layoff, moved from synthetic to "real dirt" and dueled from gate to wire, a head in second all the way around the track. The splits of :21.4 and :45 flat, along with - as Free points out - the fact he's the ONLY front runner in the field, should put him loose on the easiest of leads. With no one to challenge him jockey Abel Cedillo can relax him and ration the speed to last the extended furlong distance today. Right to the front, long gone.
$10 WIN #4 Kneedeepinsnow
4:32 7-Belmont Grade 3 Westchester 81/2f
If you're going to beat a quality multiple graded stakes runner like 9-Code of Honor (6/5) you're going to have your best chance when he's coming off a long layoff and gearing up for the season as he is in here. Fair point, and if that's your thinking I think you can pick from more than a handful of this group for your price play. But for me, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey isn't one to forfeit a graded stakes as a "run one to get ready." Now he may not be primed like he would to win a million dollar Gr 1, but trust me he'll be ready to give his "A" game effort. And he's won off the bench before. He loves Belmont (3/2-1-0) and jockey John Velazquez has been up for all the big wins. I DO find it interesting that the Westchester is at a mile and a sixteenth today - it's traditionally be run at a one-turn mile as a prep for the Met Mile later in the summer.
4:46 8-Churchill Downs Grade 3 Aristides 6 furlongs
Chad Brown sends out the lightly raced 2-Honest Mischief (5/2) and at first glance my thought was that this six furlong stakes was too short for his best. But with all the speed signed on, I think he's the off-the-pace talent you want in here. Tyler Gaffalione rides the son of Into Mischief who was last seen winning Laurel's City Of Light at seven furlongs. 4-Bobby's Wicked One (9/5) will go wire to wire and is likely to duplicate his many triple digit Beyer figures IF he were to get loose in here. But I don't see that happening today. How good is 6-Volatile (2/1) for Steve Asmussen? He's only been out four times and he's got three wins and a second. And that last race 101 Beyer is good enough to win if he runs back to that, much less improves on it. But, faces veteran stakes runners, is posted outside and is likely to be dueling on the front end from the parking lot draw.
If you're going to beat a quality multiple graded stakes runner like 9-Code of Honor (6/5) you're going to have your best chance when he's coming off a long layoff and gearing up for the season as he is in here. Fair point, and if that's your thinking I think you can pick from more than a handful of this group for your price play. But for me, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey isn't one to forfeit a graded stakes as a "run one to get ready." Now he may not be primed like he would to win a million dollar Gr 1, but trust me he'll be ready to give his "A" game effort. And he's won off the bench before. He loves Belmont (3/2-1-0) and jockey John Velazquez has been up for all the big wins. I DO find it interesting that the Westchester is at a mile and a sixteenth today - it's traditionally be run at a one-turn mile as a prep for the Met Mile later in the summer.
$15 WIN #9 Code of Honor
4:46 8-Churchill Downs Grade 3 Aristides 6 furlongs
Chad Brown sends out the lightly raced 2-Honest Mischief (5/2) and at first glance my thought was that this six furlong stakes was too short for his best. But with all the speed signed on, I think he's the off-the-pace talent you want in here. Tyler Gaffalione rides the son of Into Mischief who was last seen winning Laurel's City Of Light at seven furlongs. 4-Bobby's Wicked One (9/5) will go wire to wire and is likely to duplicate his many triple digit Beyer figures IF he were to get loose in here. But I don't see that happening today. How good is 6-Volatile (2/1) for Steve Asmussen? He's only been out four times and he's got three wins and a second. And that last race 101 Beyer is good enough to win if he runs back to that, much less improves on it. But, faces veteran stakes runners, is posted outside and is likely to be dueling on the front end from the parking lot draw.
$5 WIN #2 Honest Mischief
5:04 8-Belmont Grade 3 Intercontinental 7f - TURF
I will openly admit that I'm HOPING that the ultra talented 5-Newspaperofrecord (3/1) can reboot her career after a sensational juvenile season that saw her 3yo campaign be a disappointment. She is very quick and regular rider Jose Ortiz sticks for Chad Brown. Scratched out of a scheduled start in a listed Gulfstream event a couple weeks ago, I think that was with this event in mind. You can be pretty confident she'll take them into the far turn and then we'll find out. One more chance. The one to fear from off the pace is her stablemate and defending champion 12-Significant Form (5/2) who followed her win in this spot last year with a win at Saratoga in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch, and right back in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel. Clearly the one to fear and the most likely winner.
5:24 9-Woodbine AOC / C 7f - TURF
The first inner turf course race of the season and nothing is certain in here. But based on what we see on the page it seems like this race goes strictly through 7-Amalfi Coast (2/1) who ended 2019 with back-to-back-to-back stakes wins, the last at today's 7f (albeit on the main track). She's 2-for-2 on the turf at a mile and at 9f and she's won twice at this one-turn 7f over the Tapeta which plays like turf. A big recent work seals the deal.
5:32 5-Santa Anita Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs
No matter which of the two fillies you like - because the others are running for minor awards - this is going to be one great race to watch. Michael McCarthy's 3-Speech (8/5) debuted 3rd in a turf sprint with a low number. Second time out he moved to the main track and ran away from the field, drawing off by nine lengths with a big figure (86). In her first try vs. winners she faced Bob Baffert's Auberge who is ultra talented. Speech was 2nd to that one who was exiting a 2nd in the Gr 2 Santa Ynez behind her stable mate, multiple graded stakes winning Bast. Speech then was second best to the very talented Donna Veloce going two turns in the Grade 3 Santa Ysbel. With no racing in So Cal she shipped to Oaklawn to run in allowance company but ran in to $1.8 Million filly Gamine - also a Baffert trainee and they dueled to the wire before Gamine was JUST up by a nose. The bottom line, Speech has seen nothing but the best of the So Cal fillies. Her rival today is multiple graded stakes winner 1-Swiss Skydiver (6/5) who won the Grade 3 Fantasy last time out. That followed a third in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and a win in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. The difference between the two is an eyelash, but the nod goes to the So Cal based filly on her home track.
5:36 9-Belmont Grade 1 Carter Handicap 7f
Well, we'll find out just how good Chad Brown's 5-Network Effect (8/1) is in here. It's a big, BIG jump to go from the restricted Big Drama Stakes at Gulfstream in the spring to a Grade 1 event at Belmont. But, this talented colt ran 2nd in two graded efforts at two and Brown thought enough of him to enter in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile chasing Maximum Security last year. He was my BET of the Day when he won the Big Drama and he had very, VERY little go right that day but he got through on the inside and burst away to win in a sharp final time. His Beyers may be light, but his price is big. I've seen way too many times Brown ambitiously place a runner like this and he is rarely wrong on his judgement of talent. If you get a $9 payoff on 1-Firenze Fire (7/2) then count yourself fortunate. Here's a guy who's a multiple graded stakes winner, is 3-for-5 at Belmont, and has six triple digit Beyers showing on the page. BUT....he's 1-for-4 at this 7f distance and all his best efforts were done under the care of now suspended trainer Jason Servis. Hmmmm. And, I'll grant you that Shug McGaughey's 2-Performer (3/1) just might be this good. Third in his debut - like most McGaughey first timers, probably not fully cranked. Came right back to win off a break. Then won a nw1x and a nw2x before taking the Grade 3 Discovery. Off the layoff, turning back to a sprint. He'll need to be as special as his connections hope he is to win this wide open affair.
5:50 10-Churchill Grade 3 Dogwood (3yo) 7f
Lightly raced fillies with several looking to have bright futures ahead of them. I like the outside draw coupled with the talent of 8-Edgeway (3/1) in here. While she's never been the extra furlong, it's her most recent when breaking from the outside in an Oaklawn money allowance which saw Tyler Baze take the John Sadler filly off the pace and then blow by. That should bode well for her stretching out today in the green & white colors of the powerful So Cal ownership, Hronis Racing LLC. On the inside, Julien Leparoux will need to work out the trip, but 2-Four Graces (5/2) has won two races at 7f while pressing the pace. Toss the fading try vs. winners at a one-turn mile in her second start.
6:03 6-Santa Anita Maiden Special 6 1/2 furlongs
The only, THE ONLY concern is the rail draw for Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million colt, 1-Cezanne (4/5) who has been blistering the track in the morning. A best of forty-seven work tops off a long, LONG list of works for Baffert who's 28% with firsters. LONG gone.
6:08 10-Belmont Allowance nw1x 6 1/2 furlongs
I don't think Bob Baffert would have sent 4-Tale of the Union (8/5) to run here in New York with live racing being conducted at Santa Anita. Surely, SURELY there's an entry level sprint that he'd fit nicely in. So the fact that the white-haired wizard saw his $925K sales grad post a best-of-25 bullet work in :59 and change from the gate at Santa Anita, then ship here for a 2nd best of 24 work tells me he's ready to roll in his second start off of a 600 day plus layoff.
6:34 7-Santa Anita The Crystal Water 8f - TURF
It is horse racing, so ok. But I don't know how you make a reasonable case against 3-Prince Earl (2/1) in this restricted $100K stakes. Look at at this lightly raced five-year-old's past performances. He exits four straight graded stakes where he was never more than 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner AND he WON THE GRADE 2 DEL MAR MILE.....c'mon man. Ok, he's not been seen since November 30th, so the layoff. Wait..... he ran away in his debut (layoff), he returned off a layoff after than to beat winners in his first try against winners (layoff), he came off a six month break to win the Gr 2 Del Mar Mile as well. Oh. 7-Ward and Jerry (3/1) figures to be the main rival. Has equally as good speed figures, is also a graded winner AND gets top rider Flavian Prat. He's 6-for-20 overall but only 1-for-6 at this one mile trip.
7:09 8-Santa Anita Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (3yo) 9 furlongs
It should be close between the 1-2 in the Grade 2 San Felipe: 7-Authentic (4/5) and 6-Honor A.P. (9/5) will put on quite a show. I've not seen anyone as "WOW" impressive as Authentic. He is very fast and if left alone you can kiss the field good-bye. Maybe with the outside draw Drayden Van Dyke may sit just off a cheap pace-setter to the far turn. Certainly Honor A.P. will narrow the gap on the favorite today. He was coming off a five month layoff and facing first time winners and chasing loose on the lead Authentic in the San Felipe. Both colts have worked sharply and it should be a real show to watch.
I will openly admit that I'm HOPING that the ultra talented 5-Newspaperofrecord (3/1) can reboot her career after a sensational juvenile season that saw her 3yo campaign be a disappointment. She is very quick and regular rider Jose Ortiz sticks for Chad Brown. Scratched out of a scheduled start in a listed Gulfstream event a couple weeks ago, I think that was with this event in mind. You can be pretty confident she'll take them into the far turn and then we'll find out. One more chance. The one to fear from off the pace is her stablemate and defending champion 12-Significant Form (5/2) who followed her win in this spot last year with a win at Saratoga in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch, and right back in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel. Clearly the one to fear and the most likely winner.
$10 WIN #5 Newspaperofrecord
5:24 9-Woodbine AOC / C 7f - TURF
The first inner turf course race of the season and nothing is certain in here. But based on what we see on the page it seems like this race goes strictly through 7-Amalfi Coast (2/1) who ended 2019 with back-to-back-to-back stakes wins, the last at today's 7f (albeit on the main track). She's 2-for-2 on the turf at a mile and at 9f and she's won twice at this one-turn 7f over the Tapeta which plays like turf. A big recent work seals the deal.
$10 WIN #7 Amalfi Coast
5:32 5-Santa Anita Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs
No matter which of the two fillies you like - because the others are running for minor awards - this is going to be one great race to watch. Michael McCarthy's 3-Speech (8/5) debuted 3rd in a turf sprint with a low number. Second time out he moved to the main track and ran away from the field, drawing off by nine lengths with a big figure (86). In her first try vs. winners she faced Bob Baffert's Auberge who is ultra talented. Speech was 2nd to that one who was exiting a 2nd in the Gr 2 Santa Ynez behind her stable mate, multiple graded stakes winning Bast. Speech then was second best to the very talented Donna Veloce going two turns in the Grade 3 Santa Ysbel. With no racing in So Cal she shipped to Oaklawn to run in allowance company but ran in to $1.8 Million filly Gamine - also a Baffert trainee and they dueled to the wire before Gamine was JUST up by a nose. The bottom line, Speech has seen nothing but the best of the So Cal fillies. Her rival today is multiple graded stakes winner 1-Swiss Skydiver (6/5) who won the Grade 3 Fantasy last time out. That followed a third in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra and a win in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. The difference between the two is an eyelash, but the nod goes to the So Cal based filly on her home track.
$10 WIN 3 Speech
5:36 9-Belmont Grade 1 Carter Handicap 7f
Well, we'll find out just how good Chad Brown's 5-Network Effect (8/1) is in here. It's a big, BIG jump to go from the restricted Big Drama Stakes at Gulfstream in the spring to a Grade 1 event at Belmont. But, this talented colt ran 2nd in two graded efforts at two and Brown thought enough of him to enter in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile chasing Maximum Security last year. He was my BET of the Day when he won the Big Drama and he had very, VERY little go right that day but he got through on the inside and burst away to win in a sharp final time. His Beyers may be light, but his price is big. I've seen way too many times Brown ambitiously place a runner like this and he is rarely wrong on his judgement of talent. If you get a $9 payoff on 1-Firenze Fire (7/2) then count yourself fortunate. Here's a guy who's a multiple graded stakes winner, is 3-for-5 at Belmont, and has six triple digit Beyers showing on the page. BUT....he's 1-for-4 at this 7f distance and all his best efforts were done under the care of now suspended trainer Jason Servis. Hmmmm. And, I'll grant you that Shug McGaughey's 2-Performer (3/1) just might be this good. Third in his debut - like most McGaughey first timers, probably not fully cranked. Came right back to win off a break. Then won a nw1x and a nw2x before taking the Grade 3 Discovery. Off the layoff, turning back to a sprint. He'll need to be as special as his connections hope he is to win this wide open affair.
$5 WIN #5 Network Effect
5:50 10-Churchill Grade 3 Dogwood (3yo) 7f
Lightly raced fillies with several looking to have bright futures ahead of them. I like the outside draw coupled with the talent of 8-Edgeway (3/1) in here. While she's never been the extra furlong, it's her most recent when breaking from the outside in an Oaklawn money allowance which saw Tyler Baze take the John Sadler filly off the pace and then blow by. That should bode well for her stretching out today in the green & white colors of the powerful So Cal ownership, Hronis Racing LLC. On the inside, Julien Leparoux will need to work out the trip, but 2-Four Graces (5/2) has won two races at 7f while pressing the pace. Toss the fading try vs. winners at a one-turn mile in her second start.
$10 WIN #8 Edgeway
6:03 6-Santa Anita Maiden Special 6 1/2 furlongs
The only, THE ONLY concern is the rail draw for Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million colt, 1-Cezanne (4/5) who has been blistering the track in the morning. A best of forty-seven work tops off a long, LONG list of works for Baffert who's 28% with firsters. LONG gone.
$20 WIN #1 Cezanne
6:08 10-Belmont Allowance nw1x 6 1/2 furlongs
I don't think Bob Baffert would have sent 4-Tale of the Union (8/5) to run here in New York with live racing being conducted at Santa Anita. Surely, SURELY there's an entry level sprint that he'd fit nicely in. So the fact that the white-haired wizard saw his $925K sales grad post a best-of-25 bullet work in :59 and change from the gate at Santa Anita, then ship here for a 2nd best of 24 work tells me he's ready to roll in his second start off of a 600 day plus layoff.
$10 WIN #4 Tale of the Union
6:34 7-Santa Anita The Crystal Water 8f - TURF
It is horse racing, so ok. But I don't know how you make a reasonable case against 3-Prince Earl (2/1) in this restricted $100K stakes. Look at at this lightly raced five-year-old's past performances. He exits four straight graded stakes where he was never more than 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner AND he WON THE GRADE 2 DEL MAR MILE.....c'mon man. Ok, he's not been seen since November 30th, so the layoff. Wait..... he ran away in his debut (layoff), he returned off a layoff after than to beat winners in his first try against winners (layoff), he came off a six month break to win the Gr 2 Del Mar Mile as well. Oh. 7-Ward and Jerry (3/1) figures to be the main rival. Has equally as good speed figures, is also a graded winner AND gets top rider Flavian Prat. He's 6-for-20 overall but only 1-for-6 at this one mile trip.
$15 WIN #3 Prince Earl
7:09 8-Santa Anita Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (3yo) 9 furlongs
It should be close between the 1-2 in the Grade 2 San Felipe: 7-Authentic (4/5) and 6-Honor A.P. (9/5) will put on quite a show. I've not seen anyone as "WOW" impressive as Authentic. He is very fast and if left alone you can kiss the field good-bye. Maybe with the outside draw Drayden Van Dyke may sit just off a cheap pace-setter to the far turn. Certainly Honor A.P. will narrow the gap on the favorite today. He was coming off a five month layoff and facing first time winners and chasing loose on the lead Authentic in the San Felipe. Both colts have worked sharply and it should be a real show to watch.
$10 WIN #7 Authentic
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