Friday June 5

Friday June 5

Welcome to the "new look" selection page for today's racing.  Decided to try a new online format for posting the selections.  We'll see how this plays out.  Wednesday was a BIG day in New York in this corner while we were only able to bring one winner home in So Fla.  Let's see how today plays out....

12:00     1-Gulfstream     Maiden Claiming      81/2f - OFF TURF 

With all the rain we've had through this week and predicted through the weekend I'd say it's a good bet that today's scheduled events WON'T go on the grass, so we'll plan for them moving to the main track.  The big question mark is will trainer George Weaver leave firster 1-Amangalla (3/1) in the line up if this goes two turns on the main track?  A 4yo son of Derby champion Super Saver he'd have no problem with the distance, the dirt, or the off-going.  Weaver a big 23% winner with first time starters at a sharp $2.79 ROI.  Note that Edgard Zayas has won with 3-of-7 mounts for Weaver.  If the top one scratches look for 2-Light Fury (6/1) to be odds-on and I think he'll take some catching.  Drops to a new low in this his fourth try and has never been on turf.  Set the pace for $25K into the lane going a one-turn mile last time out.

PASS*

12:30     2-Gulfstream     Maiden Special (2yo)     5 furlongs 

Two-year-olds, on the slop, in the spring at Gulfstream.  Does it get any more "go figure" than that?  Now add in the field is "bookended" by experienced runners on the rail and the outside who BOTH will want the front end.  Couldn't pay me to play this event.

PASS

1:02     3-Gulfstream     Claiming      8f - OFF TURF 

Sixteen possibles including the 2-3-4-5-8 finishers behind runaway winner Descente, who was a MTO winner in an off-the-turf race a little over two weeks ago.  No "MTO" in here, so it's another real head-scratcher.  Maybe Paco on AE: 15-Avenida Manana (9/5) who's won five of her last six, all against better, albeit on the inner course.

PASS

1:15     1-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     81/2 furlongs 

North American trainer Todd Pletcher deals almost exclusively with high quality runners who run in stakes, allowance and talented maiden events.  It's rare to find a Pletcher runner in for a tag and even MORE rare to find Todd Pletcher claiming a horse.  He did just that in February at the Gulfstream Championship Meet when he reached in and put down $30K for 2-Grit and Glory (2/1) for top NY client Michael Repole.  The 4yo son of Malibu Moon showed talent when posting back to back second place finishes around two turns, first at Churchill Downs and then at Saratoga.  Both earned strong numbers, the Spa effort earning a career best - and field best 83.  Last time out when beating $30K 2L runners at a one-turn mile he matched that top figure.  He's worked very sharply at Pletcher's Palm Beach Downs base and runs fresh today for just $14K.  Note according to DRF analysis Mike Beer that lists Pletcher winning five of twelve when running a horse first off the claim.  That's a big 42% with a $2.48 ROI.  Top NY rider Manny Franco picks up the mount.  Another freshly claimed runner, 3-Walkoff (4/1) appears the main threat.  Brad Cox paid $50K for this lightly raced son of Street Sense.  His best figures are nearly identical to those of the top choice - he's the "price play."

$10 WIN #2 Grit and Glory

1:34     4-Gulfstream     Maiden Special      5f - OFF TURF 

I like everything about MTO: 1-R Uncle Eric (7/2) EXCEPT the rail draw.  From the Georgina Baxter barn and she's a good 30% with debut runners; sharp works; Jaramillo a 32% winner for the barn.  Son of Uncle Mo.  All systems GO if away alertly from the rail.  Watch the board for clues, and especially pay attention to how much play 3-Your Awesome Boss (7/2) gets.  Another firster from a strong barn (31% with FTS) and with sharp works (best-of-62 bullet).  4-American Phenom (7/2) was haltered for a big $50K out of his debut, taken from Todd Pletcher.  The son of American Pharoah would probably enjoy the off going, and certainly the main track.  Another with a bullet in the holster.

$5 WIN #1 R Uncle Eric

1:50     2-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     81/2f - TURF 

As you scan down the past performances of this $40K non-winners of two lifetime event the first thing that just leaps off the page is lightly raced 7-Tiltingatwindmills (3/5) who is the O-N-L-Y runner in the field who's not ever been in for an open tag, much less a restricted one like this.  But what is MOST curious and makes you say, "hmmmm," is that he's trained by top NY and turf conditioner Chad Brown....owned by the powerful Klaravich Stable....AND has never run a bad race while facing strictly MSW and allowance foes in his four career starts.  He last was his "worst" when beaten a mere two lengths in a Tampa allowance while crossing the line fifth.  But that career "lowest" figure of 72 is only topped by ONE of EIGHTY combined speed figures earned by the rest of the field.  And remember most of those figures came against cheap maiden claimers and/or restricted nw2L rivals.  After finishing fourth in her career debut at 11/1 odds, 'Tilting has been the short priced favorite in all three subsequent starts.  Her decisive maiden win came at 1/9 odds and I wouldn't be surprised if we get 1/5 today.  But she's the winner unless you're guessing.  The one filly with a comparable figure, 9-Positive Skew (12/1) earned a 76 winning her maiden in January 2019.  She was claimed for $40K at Saratoga last summer and since changing barns has earned Beyers of 59, 62, and 58 while being beaten a combined 25 lengths.  Ouch.

$15 to WIN #7 Tiltingatwindmills

2:05     5-Gulfstream     Claiming      6f 

A difficult to figure sprint where an improving runner COULD win, but I'll take the class dropping experience of 5-One Hot Drama (2/1) who looks to me to be loose on the lead.  Edgard Zayas is one of the best front end riders of the local jockey colony and he could be all alone turning for home.  That's the concern....winless at 6f, all three victories have come wire-to-wire going 5 1/2 furlongs.  Note he's run well over sloppy going.  Both 2-Bibiana (5/2) and 1-Momento (5/1) must step up in class.  But their figures match.  The former was claimed out of the last out maiden win by the Jose D'Angelo barn which is 35% first off the claim and Momento is 2-for-2 at six furlongs.  Note he won at the Fair Grounds and then again at Tampa....and the New Orleans win came over sloppy going.

$10 WIN #5 One Hot Drama

2:23    3-Belmont     Claiming     61/2 furlongs 

Nothing is clear here....your options are either class plungers, not droppers, who are currently out of form vs. in-form runners who've been facing this same $10K level or more often cheaper.  8-O Shea Can U See (5/1) is in solid form with two wins and a second in his last three starts....all for a tag in New York.  And I really like the fact that he's 4-for-9 at this unusual distance.  Not a great deal of confidence because just can't predict what the big class drop will do to the form of those.  And it's a bit worrisome that in November 'Shea was third, as the favorite, behind one of today's rivals who is 50/1, yes FIFTY-to-One in the program.  Uh oh.  Just watching.

PASS

2:37     6-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x      8f - OFF TURF 

The last four times 11-Mozo Bello (5/1) raced on the main track he ran 3rd, 4th, 2nd and WON.  That give him arguably the best main track form in the field, and more importantly he's piled up more wins than the rest of his rivals.  AND one of those came in an off-the-turf event going a one-turn mile here.  That came with jockey Paco Lopez up and he returns today.  8-Azrael (8/5) ran fourth last time out in an off-the-turf event and now moves to the Larry Rivelli barn.  His best figures came on the turf but note he ran sharply in Belmont, in the mud, going a one-turn mile.  But note in that last when fourth, he was behind Mozo Bello who looks to improve today.

$5 WIN #11 Mozo Bello

2:55     4-Belmont     Maiden Special     6 furlongs 

A full field of fourteen maidens line up and as if that isn't tough enough....the inside six have a combined ONE start.  Oh.  Then there are three other first timers in the outer half.  Just a "go figure."  Of those with experience I'd lean towards 9-Top Of The Mint (6/1) with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.  He's run competitively, but it's a concern that he's already 0-for-5 and hasn't been seen since July.  Another watch without wagering event.

PASS

3:09     7-Gulfstream     Claiming nw2L     8 furlongs 

Saffie Joseph curiously sends out 2-Magical Mike (5/2) in here while dropping him from $12.5K 2L to this $6.25K 2L spot going a one-turn mile.  What's curious is that in three of his last four starts he's been on the inner turf course.  Like the 35% surface change win percentage and that Paco Lopez wins at a big 38% for the outfit.  1-Wellwest (7/2) looks like a much better fit on the main track, but getting the mile trip is the issue for me.

PASS

3:27    5-Belmont     Maiden Claiming     8f - TURF 

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott - as nearly everyone knows - doesn't have his horses ready to roll at first asking so it's no surprise 10-Abrupt (6/1) was buried in his initial try, and on the dirt by the way.  Second time out, at the GP Championship Meet....first time turf, first time two turns, and off a layoff.  Still a good fourth in a rich $75K event.  Last time out steps UP to MSW company and for the first time is on the pace.  Duels and gives way going nine furlongs.  Now the "real try" - drops to a $40K spot where he's likely to much more effective; he's got useful experience and this could be the day and distance for the Claiborne bred son of champion Lea.  4-Idle Time (3/1) will be no surprise if he wins.  BUT, for me, two close tries in MSW events at Tampa do NOT equate to MSW at Belmont, or at Gulfstream for that matter.  If he were as "live" as his paper form appears I think someone other than Eric Cancel would be aboard for the score.  11-Basie (9/2) another that wouldn't surprise.  But (a) he's drawn in the parking lot, (b) he's got Castellano, and (c) he's a $475K Chad Brown runner on the turf making his fifth try and didn't show much when dropped in for a tag first time?  Lots of questions - but to be fair to Castellano he gave Rushing Fall a masterful, Hall of Fame ride in the featured Gr 3 Beaugay on Wednesday.

$5 WIN #10 Abrupt

3:41    8-Gulfstream     AOC nw1x      5f - OFF TURF 

I'll tell you who's responsible for all this rain....Georgina Baxter!  She has to be absolutely delighted with the weather forecast because verteran MTO: 1-Trev (1/1) has now won five in a row, three of them off-the-turf 5f events here to run his wet track record to 6-for-9.  He's got the rail, is clearly the quickest of these and THE best on the main track.  Toss in the "Minister of Speed," Emisael Jaramillo and he looks long, LONG gone with these.  Hard to imagine anyone outrunning him but if so, note that last time out he came from third and drew off.

$15 WIN #1 Trev*

3:59     6-Belmont     AOC nw2x     6 furlongs 

I won't like taking the probable short price, but in THIS column it's about finding winners.  I can't help the way the crowd bets the horses, I'm looking for who's the most likely winner that I'm willing to put my money on.  Clearly and I mean C-L-E-A-R-L-Y the most talented horse - at one time - in this field is 7-Instagrand (2/1) who began his career with two blowout wins and five straight tries in graded stakes.  A lot has happened to the now 4yo son of Into Mischief, but I have to believe the owners still believe they can get back their $1.2 Million investment if the colt is handled properly.  After a good third in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby he was a complete no show in the Gr 3 Pat Day Mile as the even money favorite.  Off for seven months he was moved to a new barn, and not to take anything away from Don Chatios, but when you're talking about Instagrand running for Jerry Hollendorfer and now Chad Brown, well, you get the picture.  An ok comeback at Del Mar; a good third in second level allowance going a two turn mile at Santa Anita and then not so much in the Gr 2 San Pasqual - but to be fair he earned a "good" figure.  Completely rebooted today as Brown takes over.  Thinking it's a good move to return to sprinting where he was most effective and if Brown really thinks this guy has still got the goods I look for a BIG effort today.  No promises.  2-Mount Travers (10/1) an intriguing possibility on pace flow.  Nearly all of these, including Instagrand, do their best running on the front end (though I believe Instagrand has learned patience under Brown's handling).  And 'Travers will be flying late.

$10 WIN #7 Instagrand

4:13     9-Gulfstream     Starter Optional Claiming (3yo)   81/2f 

Several of these sophomores are in very good form and fit at this level, but nearly all of them have their best performances at a one-turn mile.  And off-going is a question for all of them as well.  Sitting out the finale.

PASS

4:32     7-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     6f - TURF 

On her best day 10-Time Limit (5/2) is just too good for these.  The question becomes, will today be one of her "best days?"  Playing against that are these facts:  been away since mid-December and she's only sprinted once on turf.  Playing in her favor.....since a runaway MSW victory in her debut she's run in six consecutive stakes getting two seconds and two thirds; add in the lone try on turf was the OPEN Grade 3 Matron where she 2nd behind a talented filly, Alms (who just suffered her first career loss two weeks ago in a Churchill stakes race).  As for the layoff, how about that best of 48 sizzling bullet move in a wicked :59.2?  YOWZA!!  Turf or dirt she's the pick.  2-Stretchthestory (7/2) has the right running style AND has won at this distance over this grass course.  Her first two starts were good thirds in 6f turf sprints followed by the win.  Her last was a stretch out to a two-turn mile in the off-the-turf OPEN Tepin Stakes in early December.  Slower works, slower Beyers but the win at the distance over the course is a big advantage.

$5 WIN #10 Time Limit

Up the bet on the dirt

5:04    8-Belmont     Allowance nw1x     6f - TURF 

One of two things here..... either 8-Voting Agreement (5/2) goes off at a "fair" price since she's only been out once and that was back in early August at Saratoga, OR she is bet down which would indicate to me that "they" know how talented she is.  And if that's the case I too will up the investment.  I get it if you want another in here....there are a couple with faster Beyers, against better competition, some dropping in class.  So why take a short price on this filly?  Voting Agreement is trained by Chad Brown....oh; she debuted at Saratoga.....oh;  she rated professionally as a 2yo off the pace and blew by to win in hand AND the third place filly came right back to win.....OH.  AND her Beyer as a first time starting two-year-old was nearly as good as the best figures earned by the more experienced fillies in the field.  You really think she won't take a big step forward today?  Looks to me like Klaravich Stables has another potential star on their hands in this More Than Ready filly.

$15 WIN #8 Voting Agreement

5:36     9-Belmont    The Harmony Lodge     6 furlongs 

Again, there are different ways to go in here, but for me it just has looked through these first two cards at Belmont and the end of the Spring at Gulfstream that trainer Chad Brown has been pointing his stars for the return of New York racing.  That said I believe 4-Royal Charlotte (3/1) is going to prove very difficult to beat in today's feature.  She's a multiple graded stakes winner who will be perfectly positioned close to the front....not too far off to have to need a good set up and not too close to be compromised by a hot duel.  And how about this....she's 5-for-7 in her career while a perfect five for five in races less than seven furlongs.  Uh oh.  And she's won here.  On paper and on figures it looks like 8-Chalon (5/2) is every bit as talented as Royal Charlotte.  BUT, while she's 7-for-18 and a five time winner at the distance she has no graded stakes wins on her resume....zero.  Fast works for today and will be a formidable foe.  Does it matter to you that Javier Castellano rode her in five straight, including a photo-finish loss in the BC F&M Sprint, but he opts to stay with Royal Charlotte?  Bob Baffert didn't ship 9-Mother Mother (2/1) all the way across the country to just try and pick up a check.  She wasn't going to beat Horse-for-the-Course Bellafina last time out in the Grade 3 Desert Stormer, but the "clipped heels" trip certainly darkens her form.  I think she's the one who's got the best chance to upset the top choice.

$15 WIN #4 Royal Charlotte

6:08     10-Belmont     Maiden Special    6f - TURF 

Won't be surprised if Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez gets 8-Propensity (7/2) clear right out of the gate and never looks back.  She has shown huge improvement since moved to the turf with back-to-back new Beyer tops that are significantly faster than her previous four races.  Both of the geldings two turf races were at a one mile trip, but check out the pace two back....:45.1 and 1:08.2 before weakening to be third....beaten a half length.  Speed to burn.  One more time..... Chad Brown, Klaravich Stables bring out 6-Complex System (5/2) for the colt's third start today.  He debuted at this distance in an Aqueduct MSW event and came from off the pace to be a sharp second.  Off the shelf he was stretched around two turns gave way late to finish 3rd, beaten a length as the 4/5 favorite.  Now Castellano takes over and makes the last move.  The DRF's Mike Beer is high on first time starter 9-Uncle George (8/1) who is a $300K son of Uncle Mo debuting for Christophe Clement.

$5 WIN #8 Propensity