Today we move to New York for a single card of racing......
1:15 1-Belmont Maiden Special 81/2 furlongs
The question that is prominent in the Thursday opener is simply, does 1-Sneer (5/2) run back to her two back try at a one-turn mile today or not. Because if she does, simply put, the rest are running for second money. That afternoon she dueled on the lead, survived the race-long duel and just missed holding of a talented runner in Pleasant Orb. The Into Mischief filly turned back to seven furlongs in her next and it appears that she did not care for the sloppy going. Add in a break where she was not away cleanly and was chasing from the get-go and you COULD draw a line through that race. Her debut at this distance, albeit around two turns at Tampa, was also excellent when just missing in second. Finally, with a Todd Pletcher runner in the field, the fact that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez rides HERE for the first time may be key. Pletcher's 4-Thankful (4/1) keeps Luis Saez and you cannot use her debut as a gauge for how the $625K daughter of champion American Pharoah will run. Two turns on turf where she trailed throughout gives no indication of what kind of talent she may or may not have. Almost like having a firster, but with some experience. 6-So Darn Hot (2/1) has run third twice, the most recent on turf. Wouldn't be a surprise, but I don't think she's worthy of being the top choice.
$5 WIN #1 Sneer
1:50 2-Belmont Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
Much like the opener, the second is all about if you believe ML favorite 5-Invest (8/5) runs back to his two Aqueduct one-turn mile tries. If so he is long, LONG gone. So the facts are these..... it's a big worrisome that the Super Saver 4yo has already been out nine times with but one win and SIX second or third finishes. It's also discouraging that at this one-mile trip he's started five times and run second in FOUR of them. Ouch. And about now you're thinking, why am I interested here? Well, here's why - six of the nine starts were in MSW and allowance company and the most recent was in a $50K starter allowance. In his third start he dominated an Aqueduct MSW at this one-turn mile distance and earned a Beyer of 77. But despite being well clear he was DQ'd. Came right back to win here at Belmont in a 6f sprint. Under Gary Contessa's care he stepped up off a third at Laurel going two turns for this $16K 2L level to a $25K 2L one-turn mile and ran a career best 83 when beaten by 2 1/4 lengths but he was eighteen and a half ahead of the show runner....yes, 18 lengths. Moved into that starter allowance sprinting and showed speed to the stretch before fading to fifth. Now for the first time under Brad Cox's care he drops into a $16K 2L level and back to this one-turn mile. Jose Ortiz rides for a barn winning at a big 56%.
$10 WIN #5 Invest
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Special (2yo) 5 furlongs
None of these fillies have yet to make a start so we're guessing. Christophe Clement winning at a 27% with first time starters, but Mike Beer of DRF writes he's only 14% with 2yo firsters on the dirt. Still, 2-Kokopelli (5/2) ,the daughter of Into Mischief looks good. Not a fan of the rail draw however.
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 81/2 furlongs
If you adhere to the "winners win races," then 1-Chief Know It All (2/1) is your horse in here. He's won five of his last six, all at or about this level. The one loss came when he stepped up into a $32K claimer. The others were $12K to $16K at a mile or longer. But his Beyers don't stand out, so I've got questions.
3:27 5-Belmont Claiming nw3L 7f - TURF
The only time 9-Shiraz (2/1) ran in a restricted race it was washed off the turf, so let's toss that. As I've said before in regards to Belmont turf races, finding the winner at this seven furlong trip nearly always requires finding someone who's run well at this distance. And Shiraz has run well TWICE at this distance. A sharp 2nd, missing by a half length in a state-bred, 2nd level allowance and the other time a close third (missed by 1 1/4) in an OPEN entry level allowance. Mike Maker with Luis Saez, on a runner who's never run in for a tag, much less a restricted one, on the turf. With big numbers and a good post WITH experience at the trip. Should this move to the main track MTO: 11-Frank'sgunisloaded (7/5) is a standout. Paired Beyers (87-88) against open allowance runners, with a two back decisive win in a one-turn mile. Manny Franco for Danny Gargan wins for fun on the dirt at a very short price.
3:59 6-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
A dozen runners in for a $40K tag and they have all kinds of running lines - some on turf, some not. Very little experience sprinting on turf and next to none at this trip. Way too many questions.
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 81/2 furlongs
Drawn on the rail as what looks like the LONE speed, 1-It's All Relevant (9/5) looks exceptionally dangerous in here. He's already won a second level allowance, so he's running for the requisite tag of $62.5K. Gets a weight break with the apprentice in the irons, who was on board for the most recent win going nine furlongs. The six victories have come by a combined nearly 25 lengths as he dominated the competition. And if someone else insists on the lead, no problem he can press the leaders and blow by. Just a bit of anxiousness about the two dismal efforts in the streak where inexplicably he just gave it up. But, even Mike Beer, a "value player" if there ever was one is on board here.
5:04 8-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
Talk about a wild scramble! Entry level allowance events are typically difficult but in here you've got a last out debut winner (from Tampa) and a 20+ time starter who's yet to win the entry level allowance condition. Got lightly raced runners who went from maiden win to stakes action and you've got veteran claimers. It's the prototype of a first level allowance where it's a "pick 'em."
5:36 9-Belmont The Critical Eye Stakes 8 furlongs
The two favorites should decide the outcome of today's featured stakes event, the Critical Eye. It's a classic match-up between proven ability vs. an up and coming filly with loads of potential. For me, while the price may be a click or two better on Chad Brown's improving miss, it's just really hard to ignore that Graham Motion's 2-Ratajowski (1/1) has (a) won at four different distance, (b) has won a stakes like this, (c) drops out of a pace-setting and fade-to-fourth in a Gr 2 around two turns for this one-turn mile, and most especially (d) is a sharp 4/3-0-1 here at Belmont. With the inside draw and coming off a layoff look for her to shoot to the front under Jose Ortiz. 5-More Mischief (9/5) would not be a surprise. The $350K daughter of Into Mischief has won two in a row at this trip, the latest a stakes event similar to this, with numbers that are comparable. Manny Franco should have her chasing the top one and then it's a question of which filly is better, today. They have a common foe (who's in here given a 5/1 chance) .... that one fell by 10 plus to the top choice and more than five to 'Mischief.
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f - TURF
The program favorite is a FOURTEEN time maiden with six slices. No. The other eleven in here have a combined 4 races on the grass. Go figure. See you tomorrow!
PASS
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 81/2 furlongs
If you adhere to the "winners win races," then 1-Chief Know It All (2/1) is your horse in here. He's won five of his last six, all at or about this level. The one loss came when he stepped up into a $32K claimer. The others were $12K to $16K at a mile or longer. But his Beyers don't stand out, so I've got questions.
PASS
3:27 5-Belmont Claiming nw3L 7f - TURF
The only time 9-Shiraz (2/1) ran in a restricted race it was washed off the turf, so let's toss that. As I've said before in regards to Belmont turf races, finding the winner at this seven furlong trip nearly always requires finding someone who's run well at this distance. And Shiraz has run well TWICE at this distance. A sharp 2nd, missing by a half length in a state-bred, 2nd level allowance and the other time a close third (missed by 1 1/4) in an OPEN entry level allowance. Mike Maker with Luis Saez, on a runner who's never run in for a tag, much less a restricted one, on the turf. With big numbers and a good post WITH experience at the trip. Should this move to the main track MTO: 11-Frank'sgunisloaded (7/5) is a standout. Paired Beyers (87-88) against open allowance runners, with a two back decisive win in a one-turn mile. Manny Franco for Danny Gargan wins for fun on the dirt at a very short price.
$15 WIN #9 Shiraz
$15 WIN MTO: 11-Frank'sgunisloaded
3:59 6-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
A dozen runners in for a $40K tag and they have all kinds of running lines - some on turf, some not. Very little experience sprinting on turf and next to none at this trip. Way too many questions.
PASS
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 81/2 furlongs
Drawn on the rail as what looks like the LONE speed, 1-It's All Relevant (9/5) looks exceptionally dangerous in here. He's already won a second level allowance, so he's running for the requisite tag of $62.5K. Gets a weight break with the apprentice in the irons, who was on board for the most recent win going nine furlongs. The six victories have come by a combined nearly 25 lengths as he dominated the competition. And if someone else insists on the lead, no problem he can press the leaders and blow by. Just a bit of anxiousness about the two dismal efforts in the streak where inexplicably he just gave it up. But, even Mike Beer, a "value player" if there ever was one is on board here.
$10 WIN #1 It's All Relevant
5:04 8-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
Talk about a wild scramble! Entry level allowance events are typically difficult but in here you've got a last out debut winner (from Tampa) and a 20+ time starter who's yet to win the entry level allowance condition. Got lightly raced runners who went from maiden win to stakes action and you've got veteran claimers. It's the prototype of a first level allowance where it's a "pick 'em."
PASS
5:36 9-Belmont The Critical Eye Stakes 8 furlongs
The two favorites should decide the outcome of today's featured stakes event, the Critical Eye. It's a classic match-up between proven ability vs. an up and coming filly with loads of potential. For me, while the price may be a click or two better on Chad Brown's improving miss, it's just really hard to ignore that Graham Motion's 2-Ratajowski (1/1) has (a) won at four different distance, (b) has won a stakes like this, (c) drops out of a pace-setting and fade-to-fourth in a Gr 2 around two turns for this one-turn mile, and most especially (d) is a sharp 4/3-0-1 here at Belmont. With the inside draw and coming off a layoff look for her to shoot to the front under Jose Ortiz. 5-More Mischief (9/5) would not be a surprise. The $350K daughter of Into Mischief has won two in a row at this trip, the latest a stakes event similar to this, with numbers that are comparable. Manny Franco should have her chasing the top one and then it's a question of which filly is better, today. They have a common foe (who's in here given a 5/1 chance) .... that one fell by 10 plus to the top choice and more than five to 'Mischief.
$10 WIN #2 Ratajowski
6:08 10-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f - TURF
The program favorite is a FOURTEEN time maiden with six slices. No. The other eleven in here have a combined 4 races on the grass. Go figure. See you tomorrow!
PASS
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