Today we'll be in Louisville and playing "at home" at Gulfstream with an eye towards the big day Saturday. We'll have multiple tracks on the selection sheet for tomorrow!
12:00 1-Gulfstream Maiden Special (2yo) 51/2 furlongs
Three of the juvenile fillies in here could easily win as two of them were a good second in their debut earlier in the meet and the other was third. Of those I would think that 3-Acting Lucky (7/2) would have the most right to improve as she stumbled out of the gate and still managed to get up for 2nd while running into a fast pace. I am intrigued by first time starter 1-Fouzia (4/1) who is sent out by Saffie Joseph with Paco Lopez up. The daughter of Sky Mesa has drilled her morning works including a best-of-forty three furlong bullet for this. Not a fan of the rail draw while also giving up experience.
PASS
12:30 2-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 5f - TURF
With an 80% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and then again Friday morning we'll make the primary selections for all turf races on the main track. Before fully committing to the wager I'd want to see who stays in the body of the field to oppose 5-Dark Ages (9/2) on the main track. Trained by Liz Dobles and ridden by Paco Lopez this 4yo gelding has several dirt tries with big figures...but note he hasn't won on the main track....but then hardly any of them have. Turns back from two one mile events to this super sprint today. On the turf 6-R Boy Evans (7/5) is hard to go past on the numbers. His last four races have earned numbers that walk with this race. A concern that they are headed in the wrong direction and that after Mike Maker laid out $30K for him, he plunges from a $30K beaten last time out to this $12.5K nw3L spot.
1:00 1-Churchill Starter Optional Claiming 6 furlongs
The Friday opener in Louisville is a starter optional which requires runners to have been entered for $5K. Here's the problem at this cheap level....they are remarkably, consistently inconsistent. And such is the case here. 5-Irritator (5/2) ran two big races off class drops with big figures so when the 6yo did that last time he was the even money favorite facing 3-Strong Yen (3/1) and 1-Here's Carlos (7/2) on May 16. But 'Yen won and Irritator was third. Strong Yen came back off that big 82 Beyer win in an identical spot but going 7f and was the 7/5 favorite. Stopped like he was shot behind 2-Dark Arden (7/2) and Here's Carlos. So, who runs their race today? Go figure.
1:02 3-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming (2yo) 5 furlongs
Another juvenile head scratcher. A couple with experience, but none that leap off the page. And the first time starters don't come from outfits that are stellar with debut runners. Nothing out of the ordinary.....looks like an "ALL" play in the multi-race or a wait and watch.
1:34 4-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
The two favorites figure to decide this and of the two I've landed on 3-U S S Colton (3/1) for a couple of reasons. First, unlike 8-R Ninja JK (9/5) he dueled on the front end and while the winner kicked on, he held second by daylight - meanwhile 'Ninja ran evenly without being on the lead; second, 'Colton faced a click higher level of maidens AND was turning back from a two-turn turf mile, so his speed was probably not as sharp as it could be....while 'Ninja was debuting, having been prepped for a sprint try against a click CHEAPER than he faces today. And third, most importantly to me, is that jockey Emisael Jaramillo rod R Ninja JK in his debut and USS Colton in his two sprints and HE lands on USS Colton today.
1:34 2-Churchill Claiming 81/2 furlongs
Another cheap event, this for a straight nickel going two turns on the main track. 6-County Court (4/1) portrays the typical set of past performances in this event. At first glance he's a BIG NO. His last three starts produced losses by a combined 70+ lengths....yes, seventy in three races. Then you scan down and note the ONLY two times today's jockey, Corey Lanerie was on board....HERE....came when he beat $25K runners and came right back to beat $50K runners. Drops to the bottom today and gets back the last winning rider at a fair price.
2:05 5-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 81/2 f - TURF
MTO: 5-City Park (9/2) would have the obvious advantage on the dirt today, and he did run three good races over the main track at the Fair Grounds during their winter season. Those were in open company, but to be fair they were in state-bred events. How does a La-bred compare to an open $25K 2L at Gulfstream? Still, he'd have a big advantage over a group that has little dirt form. Has a race under his belt so to speak when completely distanced on the grass here in an open $50K optional claiming event. On the grass I guess you'd lean to 4-Lookin At Roses (7/5) who drops a notch after being clearly best of the rest vs. $30K 2L turf runners. Does it bother you as it does me that this loss was his FIFTH STRAIGHT loss in two-lifetime company - one them vs. cheaper $20K and three at this level. Seems an awfully short price for a less than reliable pick.
2:06 3-Churchill Maiden Special (2yo) 5 furlongs
Trainer Todd Pletcher has another string of runners stabled in Louisville and his 2yo son of Into Mischief, 8-Cousteau (2/1) appears to have found a good spot to debut. A steady string of works dating back to mid-April at Keeneland, topped by four works over the main track here should have him ready to roll. Like his draw much better than Steve Asmussen's 2-Jackie's Warrior (5/2) who has a sizzling bullet work over the Keeneland main for this debut. But, what about the fact that not only is he drawn inside but has only three works? Would seem he'd need more foundation to carry his speed, right?
2:37 6-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 8f - TURF
Regardless of the surface, it looks like the rail draw for 1-My Point Exactly (3/1) would put him on the lead. The question is if he gets pressure going two turns on the inner or at the one-turn mile on the main track. It was that situation most recently when he opened up at this $20K level and led to the final strides before being run down by two horses, finishing third by a half. The last time he ran in an off the turf it was the same story. He IS a 9x winner on the grass locally. 4-Ambassador Jim (10/1) has odds that are WAY out of line on the turf when filtering out all by his two tries at this entry level allowance. Drew clear in a state-bred with a big figure and in an open nw1x with an equally big figure.
2:38 4-Churchill Allowance NC 5f - TURF
I can't explain, other than say "that's horse racing" the results from the 9th race here May 28th under these same "no conditions" allowance turf sprint like this where the top five all run back today. 6-Morticia (8/5) was 5/2 that day and weakened to fourth when coming off a seven month layoff. The first three were 8-Change of Control (7/2) who won at odds of 18-1; second was 3-Midnight Fantasy (9/2) who was 12/1; third was 5-Miss Gossip (8/1) who was a whopping 63/1. And behind Morticia was 7-Jo Jo Air (8/1) who left the gate at odds of nearly 8/1. HAVE to figure some degree of "normalcy" prevails today, right? The "new shooters" in today's race are all double digits in the program.
3:09 7-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Mixed feelings about 7-Double Advantage (5/2) who debuts for Todd Pletcher with summer go-to rider Edgard Zayas up. On the one hand it IS a Pletcher 3yo, with good works, and owned by Michael Repole. All of that, and the $180K Keeneland purchase price says he's legit. BUT....why isn't he with the "first string" in New York, especially with Repole based in the Big Apple? Two with experience are the main dangers - 4-Girolamo's Attack (5/1) showed front running speed after finishing a best-of-the-rest second in his debut. And 5-R Uncle Eric (3/1) showed even quicker pace speed but faded to be 5th beaten 7 lengths by the colt that Girolamo held off in third.
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
I think the "most likely" winner is 1-Stripping (3/1) who makes her second career start today for trainer Brad Cox, a 26% winning angle. The filly gets Florent Geroux back in the irons today after running 7th in her career debut going 6 1/2 furlongs. While beaten ten and change, note the winner was more than eight clear of the runner-up. It appears this was a good "first start," and with the stretch out and sharp works since she should run well. Oh, and she goes MSW to MC $30K today and that is a 30% winning move for the barn.
3:41 8-Gulfstream AOC nw1x (3yo) 5f - TURF
Regardless of the surface I LIKE the top choices in here from this corner. Off the inner I think this race goes STRICTLY through 8-Fly On Angel (6/1) who's in the main body without ever having been on the grass. Clearly the connections have seen hottie Erika Delgado and her forecast for showers throughout Thursday and Friday. This sophomore daughter of multiple graded stakes winner Palace Malice won on debut. Then in her first try vs. winners pressed the pace in entry level allowance like this before fading to fourth. Came back in a Parx restricted stakes and was a just miss second. Then blew the doors off of a nw1x AOC $50K event there when drawing off by nearly a dozen lengths. Shipped to Laurel and ran in a stakes event where she dueled from the gate to mid-stretch, going the demanding seven furlongs and just failed to last (4th by 4). Off a freshening, gets Paco Lopez and has a big bullet work for this. On the turf, 9-Poseidon's Passion (4/1) broke her maiden on the dirt at Keeneland for a $30K tag. Then won two in a row over the turf, first at Tampa and then here - both against entry level runners like this. Last time out in an optional claiming event she had trouble. With clear sailing she's the preferred filly on the inside course.
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 9f - TURF
Today is probably a good time to take a stand against Chad Brown's 6-Voting Control (4/1) as this lightly raced five-year-old has not been seen since May of last spring. WOW. Or, maybe it's a good time to get on board. The talented son of Kitten's Joy won his Belmont debut then was 2nd in the Grade 3 Pilgrim, beaten a half length while trying winners for the first time. Came back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was third beaten a length and a half by future multiple graded stakes winner Mendellson. That was November 2017. Was not seen again until May 2 2019 when he showed up here in an entry level allowance. Off for more than 18 months he was sent off as the 2/1 favorite and won going away. Now comes another long break. So BOTH times he was fresh he won. Top barn, a long string of works and Tyler Gaffalione all say he can get the job done today to me.
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
On the inner course there are a lot, A LOT of ways to go. And while it's far from a "lock" or even a "prime time" play I like MTO: 3-Silvery Enough (7/2) in here on the main track. The roan gelding has paired 76 Beyers while winning two in a row on the main track. The first came over the deep, sandy surface up at Tampa Bay Downs in a $50K starter optional claiming sprint, then followed that up with a close-from-the-back to daylight score here in an entry level sprint like this going six furlongs. His ability to be up close or come from out of it gives jockey Cristian Torres options.
4:14 7-Churchill Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Two fillies are intriguing to me in here. First, 3-One Step (3/1) makes her first start against winners in this her fifth career start. After two MSW tries she dropped into a $50K Oaklawn event and was 4th. Then dropped into a $30K spot and won for fun. So this $20K 2L is a reasonable spot. But what catches my eye is that she was claimed by Steve Hobby who's won 4-of-5 (80%) with first off the claim runners over the last two years. Hmmmm. The other is the program favorite, 7-Shilah Baby (5/2) who has the best numbers and her one win came in a move like today.....last time out turf sprint, then wins on the dirt. I also like that she makes her first start for a tag and in conditioned company as well with top jockey Tyler G. BUT.....she's been out TWELVE times and the barn is 0-for-10 at the meet and just 5-for-51 on the year. Hmmmmmm, again.
4:46 8-Churchill Allowance nw1x 7 furlongs
Three of these lightly raced runners have earned an 80 Beyer (at least one) in their last race or two and I don't trust ANY of those numbers. Two were earned by last out maiden winners and the other were two career best figures in 3rd and 4th place losses. But I also don't see any likely winners among the others. Go figure.
5:18 9-Churchill Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
Chad Brown trains OXO Equine's $1.6 Million daughter of War Front, 1-Balon Rose (3/1) and you'd have to say - if you weren't a member of the ownership group - that she's been a disappointment at that price tag. She was a good second over yielding ground at Belmont in her debut. Then was a well beaten 7th at Saratoga going a marathon distance. Back to back mile and a sixteenth tries produced two near misses, when second again both times. Then she went today's mile and was finally a winner in her fifth start. Brown sent her to Gulfstream to run in the Tropical Park Oaks where she ran evenly all the way around, never close or a threat. Back down to this entry level allowance she SHOULD win if she's got just some of the perceived talent the connections paid for.
$5 WIN 5 Dark Ages (MAIN TRACK SELECTION)
1:00 1-Churchill Starter Optional Claiming 6 furlongs
The Friday opener in Louisville is a starter optional which requires runners to have been entered for $5K. Here's the problem at this cheap level....they are remarkably, consistently inconsistent. And such is the case here. 5-Irritator (5/2) ran two big races off class drops with big figures so when the 6yo did that last time he was the even money favorite facing 3-Strong Yen (3/1) and 1-Here's Carlos (7/2) on May 16. But 'Yen won and Irritator was third. Strong Yen came back off that big 82 Beyer win in an identical spot but going 7f and was the 7/5 favorite. Stopped like he was shot behind 2-Dark Arden (7/2) and Here's Carlos. So, who runs their race today? Go figure.
PASS
1:02 3-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming (2yo) 5 furlongs
Another juvenile head scratcher. A couple with experience, but none that leap off the page. And the first time starters don't come from outfits that are stellar with debut runners. Nothing out of the ordinary.....looks like an "ALL" play in the multi-race or a wait and watch.
PASS
1:34 4-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
The two favorites figure to decide this and of the two I've landed on 3-U S S Colton (3/1) for a couple of reasons. First, unlike 8-R Ninja JK (9/5) he dueled on the front end and while the winner kicked on, he held second by daylight - meanwhile 'Ninja ran evenly without being on the lead; second, 'Colton faced a click higher level of maidens AND was turning back from a two-turn turf mile, so his speed was probably not as sharp as it could be....while 'Ninja was debuting, having been prepped for a sprint try against a click CHEAPER than he faces today. And third, most importantly to me, is that jockey Emisael Jaramillo rod R Ninja JK in his debut and USS Colton in his two sprints and HE lands on USS Colton today.
$10 WIN #3 U S S Colton
1:34 2-Churchill Claiming 81/2 furlongs
Another cheap event, this for a straight nickel going two turns on the main track. 6-County Court (4/1) portrays the typical set of past performances in this event. At first glance he's a BIG NO. His last three starts produced losses by a combined 70+ lengths....yes, seventy in three races. Then you scan down and note the ONLY two times today's jockey, Corey Lanerie was on board....HERE....came when he beat $25K runners and came right back to beat $50K runners. Drops to the bottom today and gets back the last winning rider at a fair price.
$5 WIN #6 County Court
2:05 5-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 81/2 f - TURF
MTO: 5-City Park (9/2) would have the obvious advantage on the dirt today, and he did run three good races over the main track at the Fair Grounds during their winter season. Those were in open company, but to be fair they were in state-bred events. How does a La-bred compare to an open $25K 2L at Gulfstream? Still, he'd have a big advantage over a group that has little dirt form. Has a race under his belt so to speak when completely distanced on the grass here in an open $50K optional claiming event. On the grass I guess you'd lean to 4-Lookin At Roses (7/5) who drops a notch after being clearly best of the rest vs. $30K 2L turf runners. Does it bother you as it does me that this loss was his FIFTH STRAIGHT loss in two-lifetime company - one them vs. cheaper $20K and three at this level. Seems an awfully short price for a less than reliable pick.
$5 WIN MTO: 5 City Park
2:06 3-Churchill Maiden Special (2yo) 5 furlongs
Trainer Todd Pletcher has another string of runners stabled in Louisville and his 2yo son of Into Mischief, 8-Cousteau (2/1) appears to have found a good spot to debut. A steady string of works dating back to mid-April at Keeneland, topped by four works over the main track here should have him ready to roll. Like his draw much better than Steve Asmussen's 2-Jackie's Warrior (5/2) who has a sizzling bullet work over the Keeneland main for this debut. But, what about the fact that not only is he drawn inside but has only three works? Would seem he'd need more foundation to carry his speed, right?
$10 WIN #8 Cousteau
2:37 6-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 8f - TURF
Regardless of the surface, it looks like the rail draw for 1-My Point Exactly (3/1) would put him on the lead. The question is if he gets pressure going two turns on the inner or at the one-turn mile on the main track. It was that situation most recently when he opened up at this $20K level and led to the final strides before being run down by two horses, finishing third by a half. The last time he ran in an off the turf it was the same story. He IS a 9x winner on the grass locally. 4-Ambassador Jim (10/1) has odds that are WAY out of line on the turf when filtering out all by his two tries at this entry level allowance. Drew clear in a state-bred with a big figure and in an open nw1x with an equally big figure.
PASS
2:38 4-Churchill Allowance NC 5f - TURF
I can't explain, other than say "that's horse racing" the results from the 9th race here May 28th under these same "no conditions" allowance turf sprint like this where the top five all run back today. 6-Morticia (8/5) was 5/2 that day and weakened to fourth when coming off a seven month layoff. The first three were 8-Change of Control (7/2) who won at odds of 18-1; second was 3-Midnight Fantasy (9/2) who was 12/1; third was 5-Miss Gossip (8/1) who was a whopping 63/1. And behind Morticia was 7-Jo Jo Air (8/1) who left the gate at odds of nearly 8/1. HAVE to figure some degree of "normalcy" prevails today, right? The "new shooters" in today's race are all double digits in the program.
$10 WIN #6 Morticia
3:09 7-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
Mixed feelings about 7-Double Advantage (5/2) who debuts for Todd Pletcher with summer go-to rider Edgard Zayas up. On the one hand it IS a Pletcher 3yo, with good works, and owned by Michael Repole. All of that, and the $180K Keeneland purchase price says he's legit. BUT....why isn't he with the "first string" in New York, especially with Repole based in the Big Apple? Two with experience are the main dangers - 4-Girolamo's Attack (5/1) showed front running speed after finishing a best-of-the-rest second in his debut. And 5-R Uncle Eric (3/1) showed even quicker pace speed but faded to be 5th beaten 7 lengths by the colt that Girolamo held off in third.
$5 WIN #7 Double Advantage
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 8 furlongs
I think the "most likely" winner is 1-Stripping (3/1) who makes her second career start today for trainer Brad Cox, a 26% winning angle. The filly gets Florent Geroux back in the irons today after running 7th in her career debut going 6 1/2 furlongs. While beaten ten and change, note the winner was more than eight clear of the runner-up. It appears this was a good "first start," and with the stretch out and sharp works since she should run well. Oh, and she goes MSW to MC $30K today and that is a 30% winning move for the barn.
$5 WIN #1 Stripping
Regardless of the surface I LIKE the top choices in here from this corner. Off the inner I think this race goes STRICTLY through 8-Fly On Angel (6/1) who's in the main body without ever having been on the grass. Clearly the connections have seen hottie Erika Delgado and her forecast for showers throughout Thursday and Friday. This sophomore daughter of multiple graded stakes winner Palace Malice won on debut. Then in her first try vs. winners pressed the pace in entry level allowance like this before fading to fourth. Came back in a Parx restricted stakes and was a just miss second. Then blew the doors off of a nw1x AOC $50K event there when drawing off by nearly a dozen lengths. Shipped to Laurel and ran in a stakes event where she dueled from the gate to mid-stretch, going the demanding seven furlongs and just failed to last (4th by 4). Off a freshening, gets Paco Lopez and has a big bullet work for this. On the turf, 9-Poseidon's Passion (4/1) broke her maiden on the dirt at Keeneland for a $30K tag. Then won two in a row over the turf, first at Tampa and then here - both against entry level runners like this. Last time out in an optional claiming event she had trouble. With clear sailing she's the preferred filly on the inside course.
$10 WIN #8 Fly On Angel (Main Track)
$5 WIN #9 Poseidon's Passion (Turf)
3:42 6-Churchill AOC nw2x 9f - TURF
Today is probably a good time to take a stand against Chad Brown's 6-Voting Control (4/1) as this lightly raced five-year-old has not been seen since May of last spring. WOW. Or, maybe it's a good time to get on board. The talented son of Kitten's Joy won his Belmont debut then was 2nd in the Grade 3 Pilgrim, beaten a half length while trying winners for the first time. Came back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was third beaten a length and a half by future multiple graded stakes winner Mendellson. That was November 2017. Was not seen again until May 2 2019 when he showed up here in an entry level allowance. Off for more than 18 months he was sent off as the 2/1 favorite and won going away. Now comes another long break. So BOTH times he was fresh he won. Top barn, a long string of works and Tyler Gaffalione all say he can get the job done today to me.
$10 WIN #6 Voting Control
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
On the inner course there are a lot, A LOT of ways to go. And while it's far from a "lock" or even a "prime time" play I like MTO: 3-Silvery Enough (7/2) in here on the main track. The roan gelding has paired 76 Beyers while winning two in a row on the main track. The first came over the deep, sandy surface up at Tampa Bay Downs in a $50K starter optional claiming sprint, then followed that up with a close-from-the-back to daylight score here in an entry level sprint like this going six furlongs. His ability to be up close or come from out of it gives jockey Cristian Torres options.
$10 WIN MTO #3 Silvery Enough
4:14 7-Churchill Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Two fillies are intriguing to me in here. First, 3-One Step (3/1) makes her first start against winners in this her fifth career start. After two MSW tries she dropped into a $50K Oaklawn event and was 4th. Then dropped into a $30K spot and won for fun. So this $20K 2L is a reasonable spot. But what catches my eye is that she was claimed by Steve Hobby who's won 4-of-5 (80%) with first off the claim runners over the last two years. Hmmmm. The other is the program favorite, 7-Shilah Baby (5/2) who has the best numbers and her one win came in a move like today.....last time out turf sprint, then wins on the dirt. I also like that she makes her first start for a tag and in conditioned company as well with top jockey Tyler G. BUT.....she's been out TWELVE times and the barn is 0-for-10 at the meet and just 5-for-51 on the year. Hmmmmmm, again.
PASS
4:46 8-Churchill Allowance nw1x 7 furlongs
Three of these lightly raced runners have earned an 80 Beyer (at least one) in their last race or two and I don't trust ANY of those numbers. Two were earned by last out maiden winners and the other were two career best figures in 3rd and 4th place losses. But I also don't see any likely winners among the others. Go figure.
PASS
5:18 9-Churchill Allowance nw1x 8f - TURF
Chad Brown trains OXO Equine's $1.6 Million daughter of War Front, 1-Balon Rose (3/1) and you'd have to say - if you weren't a member of the ownership group - that she's been a disappointment at that price tag. She was a good second over yielding ground at Belmont in her debut. Then was a well beaten 7th at Saratoga going a marathon distance. Back to back mile and a sixteenth tries produced two near misses, when second again both times. Then she went today's mile and was finally a winner in her fifth start. Brown sent her to Gulfstream to run in the Tropical Park Oaks where she ran evenly all the way around, never close or a threat. Back down to this entry level allowance she SHOULD win if she's got just some of the perceived talent the connections paid for.
$10 WIN #1 Balon Rose
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