Happy Father's Day to all the Dads out there. Three tracks today on this holiday Sunday....Belmont, Churchill and Santa Anita.....
1:00 1-Churchill Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
I get it, 2-The Rock Says (1/1) is not the "best bet" to make in here, but he IS the most likely winner. Toss the first two career starts on turf, though he tried hard finishing 2nd and 3rd. First time at a route on dirt in his third start he WON....and HERE under the Twin Spires. Since then he's been frustrated with two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth all in allowance company. Comes off the shelf and drops into this high-priced $50K restricted claiming event. He always runs his race and that is something you cannot say about his challengers. Sure, one of them COULD win today but none of them consistently perform so someone is going to have to "surprise" with a turn around in form while the consistent favorite would have to run a career worst. Figuring that won't happen here. I personally like the turn back to a one-turn mile for the first time for this son of Uncle Mo.
1:00 1-Churchill Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
I get it, 2-The Rock Says (1/1) is not the "best bet" to make in here, but he IS the most likely winner. Toss the first two career starts on turf, though he tried hard finishing 2nd and 3rd. First time at a route on dirt in his third start he WON....and HERE under the Twin Spires. Since then he's been frustrated with two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth all in allowance company. Comes off the shelf and drops into this high-priced $50K restricted claiming event. He always runs his race and that is something you cannot say about his challengers. Sure, one of them COULD win today but none of them consistently perform so someone is going to have to "surprise" with a turn around in form while the consistent favorite would have to run a career worst. Figuring that won't happen here. I personally like the turn back to a one-turn mile for the first time for this son of Uncle Mo.
$10 WIN #2 The Rock Says
1:15 1-Belmont Claiming nw2L 6f - TURF
8-Noble Jewel (3/1) is entered in an allowance event on Saturday so if she awaits this nw2L claiming event she'll have a much stronger chance. Her debut came in a 6f turf sprint like this and she was up to win. Three allowance tries followed - toss the off-the-turf try, her worst effort. She was within five of the winner in the other two without threatening. A probable winner if able to overcome the wide draw and the long layoff. Gets a weight break with the promising apprentice rider in the irons.
PASS
1:34 2-Churchill Maiden Claiming (2yo) 5 furlongs
Eight of the nine debut here and while $40K isn't a cheap tag, it IS a tag nonetheless so you have to wonder about just how much ability these juveniles have if first out of the box they're for sale. And the one who debuted in MSW was drilled. Not for me.
PASS
1:50 2-Belmont Maiden Special (2yo) 5 furlongs
Trainer Wesley Ward has been most unproductive with his juveniles this year so I'm reluctant to recommend his 3-Roderick (9/5) who debuts today with some good works. I'd lean more to the Todd Pletcher firster 5-Winfromwithin (5/2) under John Velazquez if I were inclined to play here, which I'm not.
PASS
2:06 3-Churchill Claiming 8 furlongs
Four weeks ago 3-Summer Revolution (2/1) appeared in an open $8K one-turn mile event here going first off the claim for Roberto Diodoro. He exerted his back class and drew off as much the best as the post time favorite. His Beyer that day is indicative that at this level he may have recovered his one-time stakes speed. That's nothing but bad news for the rest of the field. Interesting that 'Summer was claimed away from owner/trainer Steve Asmussen after spending 2019 winless. And today the main rival to Summer Revolution is 1-Above Board (4/1) who goes second off the claim for.....that's right owner/trainer Steve Asmussen. On his best day he can win this, but two things would be required. First, all of 'Board's best efforts have come when loose on the lead and at other tracks than Churchill Downs. And second he'd need Summer Revolution to regress today. Also note that while Summer Revolution raced a month ago, Above Board has not been seen since mid September.
$10 WIN #3 Summer Revolution
2:23 3-Belmont Allowance nw1x 10f - TURF
Honestly, I have mixed feelings about Todd Pletcher's 2-Cap de Creus (7/5) in here. And at first glance you'd think that a short priced favorite who's 0-for-9 on the turf is strictly a play against. But then you look at the likely alternatives..... Shug McGaughey's lightly raced 5-Civil Union (2/1) and Jimmy Toner's 6-Whatdoesthesharksay (6/1) who both DO have wins on the turf, the latter AT THIS DISTANCE over this course. But you look at the past performances of those two challengers and they share a common foe - BOTH were defeated by Cap de Creus. Oh. And if you're a believer in Beyer speed figures, which I am, the last two figures earned by Cap de Creus beat all the combined 27 numbers earned by this field....and those are NOT her best figures. She drops out of back to back Gr 3 events. Note she was actually the favorite in the Gr 3 Very One two back, yes....without a turf win on her resume. And the reason for that is the four back race where she came within a photo finish head of Mean Mary who took two straight graded events out of that allowance victory. John Velazquez rides for Pletcher.
$10 WIN #2 Cap de Creus
2:38 4-Churchill Claiming 8 furlongs
Seven of the eight COULD win in here and are plunging in class to try and recover their form. But it appears the most likely winner is 8-Lady Cleopatra (3/1) who dominated this level of competition last time out, HERE albeit going two turns. She HAS won at a one-turn mile here, so she's legitimate. But I can't get past the trainer's 0-for-20 mark with last out winners over the last two years. Just watching.
PASS
2:54 4-Belmont Claiming nw2L 8 furlongs
Well you can't bet 2-More Than Striking (7/2) off his last two starts, but he ran into Tapit To Win who ran in the Belmont on Saturday, so give him a pass. A return to his first two starts gives him a chance against the heavy favorite, 7-Bebe Banker (4/5) who has impressed the morning line maker despite having compiles a 20/1-3-4 record. WOW, that's not the kind of horse I want to bet on.
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
The nine who have started were beaten a combined 124 lengths in their last. That makes the 4th by 7 in the second and most recent start for 1-Tetrahydro (4/1) look a lot more appealing. But how do you reconcile the move from 4th for a $150K tag and now in for $20K? Ouch. But, it's all about the match-up as the other "logical" one is 10-Annie'sgoldengirl (4/1) who showed speed for a quarter mile then stopped, finishing 8th beaten 16 lengths as the 8/5 favorite here three weeks ago at this same price tag. Not betting.
3:29 5-Belmont Allowance nw1x 6f - TURF
All of these have not visited the winner's circle in quite a while, but with that said I think there are several solid angles to support 3-Morning Breez (7/5) in this spot. While he hasn't won at this 6f turf distance he ran strongly here with solid Beyer figures that beat everything everyone else has run with one exception. What I like most is that the two most likely alternative win choices BOTH will want the lead and should set up his pressing trip. Second off the shelf today. With 7-Quarky (5/2) you have to overlook, and it's a BIG OVERLOOK his past when the 5/2 favorite at Gulfstream and he ran 8th beaten nearly twenty lengths. OK, he was coming off a LONG break, but I mean he stopped like he was shot. A good sign that jockey Luis Saez sticks with this one who's the only one with Beyers to compete with the top one. May be pace compromised on the front end and note he's lost ten in a row since breaking his maiden fifteen months ago. 2-Montauk Daddy (5/1) is the price play and has only been out four times with ALL of them quality efforts. But his Beyers are multiple lengths slower and you have to be concerned that trainer Linda Rice is off to an 0-for-20 start here in NY.
3:30 1-Santa Anita The Siren Lure 51/2 f - TURF
What you have to decide in the So Cal opener is this - do you believe that 4-Sparky Ville (9/5) can run back to his career best effort a month ago. He earned a career best 104 figure when 2nd in the Grade 3 Daytona. He did all the work on the front end, sizzling the way while posting an :21 flat opening quarter, stopped the clock at :43.2 after the opening half mile and then was caught on the wire by a Gr 1 winner. He could bounce today and if he runs back to his low-90s he's just a contender. Have to like that he's a stakes winner at two and three and about to be a stakes winner at four today.
3:42 6-Churchill Allowance nw1x 81/2 f - TURF
If 7-Evil Lynn (7/2) runs back to her last race 86 Beyer earned in a blowout win here going nine furlongs, she's a daylight winner. And were this at Gulfstream handicappers Jason Blewitt and Ron Nicoletti would be salivating over how she's first off the claim for Mike Maker - who's an unremarkable 15% with those yet gets rave reviews. So that win came in her third straight win on the turf, (3-for-3) but in a "beaten" $40K event. If she runs back to her previous two wins she's vulnerable to Brad Cox's 8-Dreamalildreamofu (5/1) who's 2/1-1-0 on the turf and gets back on today after being away from the grass since March while racing at turf-less Oaklawn Park. And we have to give a shout out to 4-How Ironic (5/1) who lost in a 2-lifetime allowance here to conclude her 2019 season then was beaten less than three lengths in the Gr 3 Florida Oaks at 92/1 and came back to be beaten less than three lengths in the Sanibel Island stakes at 52/1. Goes for a barn that's 0-for-18 here and a mere 1-for-49 in all of 2020. Ouch.
4:00 2-Santa Anita Starter Optional Claiming 8f - TURF
Not thrilled about the runners in here, but I am intrigued to see how shipper 3-Salvator Muni (4/1) runs in here. Has a sharp bullet work and maybe the new face can score the mild surprise.
4:01 6-Belmont Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
8-Checksandbalances (7/2) may be one of the few Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz / Klaravich Stables turf runners that does NOT go off at odds on. How DO you feel about this well bred first timer showing up for a tag in her initial run? OK, so it's a rich $75K tag so considering the breeding fee was only $39K the powerful stable would turn this into an instant profit. And you have to trust that Brown spots them where they belong. The one who will attract attention at the windows and deservedly so is 1-Tilsa (3/1) who was 2nd best in her debut for trainer Jonathan Thomas. Note the barn is a big 38% with second time maidens. Not a fan that her MSW debut was at Tampa and she was losing ground, nearly caught by the show horse with a less than striking Beyer figure. Still John Velazquez takes the mount and he wins 40% of his limited mounts for this outfit.
4:14 7-Churchill Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Maybe lightly raced 9-Uncle Momo (6/1) gets his second win here for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. Set the pace at 5/1 for a half mile in a $20K nw2L last time out and then absolutely stopped. Cuts the tag in half in search of a win. 4-Creekmore (6/1) much the same mold but he set the pace and stopped in an OPEN $20K event. Would be more appealing if the rider wasn't 24/0-1-5 at the meet.
4:30 3-Santa Anita Maiden Special (2yo) 41/2 furlongs
There's no Bob Baffert juvenile to light it up in here so this looks wide open. I don't think I've ever heard of trainer Luis Mendez, but he's winning at a 40% clip here at SA and he's 22% with his first time starters (27 starters) and 21% with his juveniles (53 starters). The rider only eight mounts but won with three of them (38%). LOVE the best of 59 bullet work from the gate for 2-Dr. Schivel (5/2). He looks "live" to me.
4:34 7-Belmont Claiming 6 furlongs
The "most likely" winners are either last out maiden claiming victors or a runner who's 8/1-2-3 and I don't like the chances of any of those kinds horses so I'll be watching this one.
4:46 8-Churchill AOC nw2x 6 furlongs
It's a wide open second level allowance where you could land on several runners in here and feel some degree of confidence. But I like the upset chances of 4-Shashashakemeup (5/1) - one, for the obvious reason of his name reminding me of one of my most favorite gals at Cypress Bay High School when I worked there, Shasha Hilbon. Last time out in early April she sprinted in an Oaklawn allowance and came from near the back to win going away with a big figure. That was his second win in six starts. The previous four can all be tossed from consideration in evaluation for this spot. Last time out a turf sprint, toss....the previous two were graded stakes around two turns at the Fair Grounds.....draw a line through those....the four back was at this distance, but was the Sugar Bowl Stakes in his first try vs. winners. So the ONLY time he sprinted without running in a stakes was last time - a big win, and in debut he he WON....HERE in his MSW debut. Uh oh. And by the way, perennial leading rider Corey Lanerie gets the call today.
5:00 4-Santa Anita Maiden Special 51/2 furlongs
A full field of twelve maidens, many with lots of opportunities and the field includes the 2-3-4 runners from the 3rd on May 29th at this level and distance. I don't like anyone.
5:05 8-Belmont The Lady Shipman 6f - TURF
You can go a number of ways in the NY feature today but I like the chances of the outside drawn 11-Miss J McKay (5/2) who has yet to run a bad one on the turf. She was a decisive winner in her first start on the turf, sprinting vs. winners for the first time in Monmouth's Colleen Stakes. Drew off impressively then was a daylight winner in a Laurel turf sprint stake. Came from off the pace and just missed in an Aqueduct 6f turf sprint in November while two plus clear of a next out winner. Closed out her 2yo season with a 2nd in a dirt stake. Now comes here off a break with sharp works and the ability to be close or mid-pack for jockey Jose Ortiz.
5:18 9-Churchill AOC nw3x 8f - TURF
With the exception of her debut - excused because of traffic through the lane - when finishing 6th, but only 3 1/4 off the winner, 2-Tapit Today (8/5) has never run a bad race. You can a clue as to just how highly regarded this 5yo daughter of Tapit is to her connections when you note that she was put on the shelf for SIXTEEN months and came back to win her first start in a second level allowance at Tampa by daylight. Next time up she chased multiple graded stakes winner Starship Jubilee and came within a neck of second, which was held by her stakes winning stablemate Magic Star. Trust me, there are no runners that compare with those two for this Chad Brown trainee. That bullet move over the Palm Meadows turf three weeks ago tips her hand as being primed for a BIG shot today under Churchill's leading rider Tyler Gaffalione. The BEST BET.
5:32 5-Santa Anita Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
The favorite looks logical but I just don't like horses who plunge in class AND go into restricted races off a dull effort like the favorite ran last time out, albeit in a turf sprint. Watching.
5:36 9-Belmont Maiden Claiming 81/2 f - TURF
A wide open finale where no one catches the eye. But we'll shoot for a price play on a trainer angle. Brad Cox, who normally is NOT in New York has been winning at a big clip (over 40% heading into Saturday's races) and he takes over the training today for 3-Shared Success (6/1) who's made three starts, all on the dirt. Lures Joel Rosario and immediately stretches this colt out long AND goes to the turf while dropping in class - although you could argue that an open Finger Lakes MSW is on par with a state-bred $40K maiden claimer at Belmont.
5:50 10-Churchill Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Last Friday I wrote for the Churchill Downs opener that you would rarely see me picking a runner like Drop Dead Gorgeous. Why? Because she was a 15x - yes fifteen - maiden. But that race was set up for her in my opinion and she won in a runaway. Flash forward to this spot where today may finally, FINALLY be the day for $625K Keeneland grad 1-Copper King (4/1) who's suffered eleven tough losses with NINE second or third place finishes. His last last three figures - the best three numbers he's earned AND they're on the improve - beat every number on the page with one exception. And the horse that earned that one figure came back last time to lose by 14 lengths. Today's the day.
6:03 6-Santa Anita Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano 14f - TURF
It looks like 8-Ward 'n Jerry (6/5) will be a short price standout in here. You KNOW that his last out race going a mile was simply a prep for this. It gave him a race off the bench and now we're set to go. Look down the past performances of this guy....the five races at a mile and a quarter or longer are ALL his best races including a win in the Gr 3 San Luis Rey and a just-miss in the Gr 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. Flavian Prat rides today on Brad Free's BEST BET of the day. Run to the window.
PASS
3:10 5-Churchill Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
The nine who have started were beaten a combined 124 lengths in their last. That makes the 4th by 7 in the second and most recent start for 1-Tetrahydro (4/1) look a lot more appealing. But how do you reconcile the move from 4th for a $150K tag and now in for $20K? Ouch. But, it's all about the match-up as the other "logical" one is 10-Annie'sgoldengirl (4/1) who showed speed for a quarter mile then stopped, finishing 8th beaten 16 lengths as the 8/5 favorite here three weeks ago at this same price tag. Not betting.
PASS
3:29 5-Belmont Allowance nw1x 6f - TURF
All of these have not visited the winner's circle in quite a while, but with that said I think there are several solid angles to support 3-Morning Breez (7/5) in this spot. While he hasn't won at this 6f turf distance he ran strongly here with solid Beyer figures that beat everything everyone else has run with one exception. What I like most is that the two most likely alternative win choices BOTH will want the lead and should set up his pressing trip. Second off the shelf today. With 7-Quarky (5/2) you have to overlook, and it's a BIG OVERLOOK his past when the 5/2 favorite at Gulfstream and he ran 8th beaten nearly twenty lengths. OK, he was coming off a LONG break, but I mean he stopped like he was shot. A good sign that jockey Luis Saez sticks with this one who's the only one with Beyers to compete with the top one. May be pace compromised on the front end and note he's lost ten in a row since breaking his maiden fifteen months ago. 2-Montauk Daddy (5/1) is the price play and has only been out four times with ALL of them quality efforts. But his Beyers are multiple lengths slower and you have to be concerned that trainer Linda Rice is off to an 0-for-20 start here in NY.
$5 WIN #3 Morning Breez
3:30 1-Santa Anita The Siren Lure 51/2 f - TURF
What you have to decide in the So Cal opener is this - do you believe that 4-Sparky Ville (9/5) can run back to his career best effort a month ago. He earned a career best 104 figure when 2nd in the Grade 3 Daytona. He did all the work on the front end, sizzling the way while posting an :21 flat opening quarter, stopped the clock at :43.2 after the opening half mile and then was caught on the wire by a Gr 1 winner. He could bounce today and if he runs back to his low-90s he's just a contender. Have to like that he's a stakes winner at two and three and about to be a stakes winner at four today.
$5 WIN #4 Sparky Ville
3:42 6-Churchill Allowance nw1x 81/2 f - TURF
If 7-Evil Lynn (7/2) runs back to her last race 86 Beyer earned in a blowout win here going nine furlongs, she's a daylight winner. And were this at Gulfstream handicappers Jason Blewitt and Ron Nicoletti would be salivating over how she's first off the claim for Mike Maker - who's an unremarkable 15% with those yet gets rave reviews. So that win came in her third straight win on the turf, (3-for-3) but in a "beaten" $40K event. If she runs back to her previous two wins she's vulnerable to Brad Cox's 8-Dreamalildreamofu (5/1) who's 2/1-1-0 on the turf and gets back on today after being away from the grass since March while racing at turf-less Oaklawn Park. And we have to give a shout out to 4-How Ironic (5/1) who lost in a 2-lifetime allowance here to conclude her 2019 season then was beaten less than three lengths in the Gr 3 Florida Oaks at 92/1 and came back to be beaten less than three lengths in the Sanibel Island stakes at 52/1. Goes for a barn that's 0-for-18 here and a mere 1-for-49 in all of 2020. Ouch.
PASS
4:00 2-Santa Anita Starter Optional Claiming 8f - TURF
Not thrilled about the runners in here, but I am intrigued to see how shipper 3-Salvator Muni (4/1) runs in here. Has a sharp bullet work and maybe the new face can score the mild surprise.
PASS
4:01 6-Belmont Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
8-Checksandbalances (7/2) may be one of the few Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz / Klaravich Stables turf runners that does NOT go off at odds on. How DO you feel about this well bred first timer showing up for a tag in her initial run? OK, so it's a rich $75K tag so considering the breeding fee was only $39K the powerful stable would turn this into an instant profit. And you have to trust that Brown spots them where they belong. The one who will attract attention at the windows and deservedly so is 1-Tilsa (3/1) who was 2nd best in her debut for trainer Jonathan Thomas. Note the barn is a big 38% with second time maidens. Not a fan that her MSW debut was at Tampa and she was losing ground, nearly caught by the show horse with a less than striking Beyer figure. Still John Velazquez takes the mount and he wins 40% of his limited mounts for this outfit.
$10 WIN #8 Checksandbalance
4:14 7-Churchill Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
Maybe lightly raced 9-Uncle Momo (6/1) gets his second win here for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. Set the pace at 5/1 for a half mile in a $20K nw2L last time out and then absolutely stopped. Cuts the tag in half in search of a win. 4-Creekmore (6/1) much the same mold but he set the pace and stopped in an OPEN $20K event. Would be more appealing if the rider wasn't 24/0-1-5 at the meet.
PASS
4:30 3-Santa Anita Maiden Special (2yo) 41/2 furlongs
There's no Bob Baffert juvenile to light it up in here so this looks wide open. I don't think I've ever heard of trainer Luis Mendez, but he's winning at a 40% clip here at SA and he's 22% with his first time starters (27 starters) and 21% with his juveniles (53 starters). The rider only eight mounts but won with three of them (38%). LOVE the best of 59 bullet work from the gate for 2-Dr. Schivel (5/2). He looks "live" to me.
$10 WIN #2 Dr. Schivel
4:34 7-Belmont Claiming 6 furlongs The "most likely" winners are either last out maiden claiming victors or a runner who's 8/1-2-3 and I don't like the chances of any of those kinds horses so I'll be watching this one.
PASS
4:46 8-Churchill AOC nw2x 6 furlongs
It's a wide open second level allowance where you could land on several runners in here and feel some degree of confidence. But I like the upset chances of 4-Shashashakemeup (5/1) - one, for the obvious reason of his name reminding me of one of my most favorite gals at Cypress Bay High School when I worked there, Shasha Hilbon. Last time out in early April she sprinted in an Oaklawn allowance and came from near the back to win going away with a big figure. That was his second win in six starts. The previous four can all be tossed from consideration in evaluation for this spot. Last time out a turf sprint, toss....the previous two were graded stakes around two turns at the Fair Grounds.....draw a line through those....the four back was at this distance, but was the Sugar Bowl Stakes in his first try vs. winners. So the ONLY time he sprinted without running in a stakes was last time - a big win, and in debut he he WON....HERE in his MSW debut. Uh oh. And by the way, perennial leading rider Corey Lanerie gets the call today.
$10 WIN #4 Shashashakemeup
5:00 4-Santa Anita Maiden Special 51/2 furlongs
A full field of twelve maidens, many with lots of opportunities and the field includes the 2-3-4 runners from the 3rd on May 29th at this level and distance. I don't like anyone.
PASS
5:05 8-Belmont The Lady Shipman 6f - TURF
You can go a number of ways in the NY feature today but I like the chances of the outside drawn 11-Miss J McKay (5/2) who has yet to run a bad one on the turf. She was a decisive winner in her first start on the turf, sprinting vs. winners for the first time in Monmouth's Colleen Stakes. Drew off impressively then was a daylight winner in a Laurel turf sprint stake. Came from off the pace and just missed in an Aqueduct 6f turf sprint in November while two plus clear of a next out winner. Closed out her 2yo season with a 2nd in a dirt stake. Now comes here off a break with sharp works and the ability to be close or mid-pack for jockey Jose Ortiz.
$5 WIN #11 Miss J McKay
5:18 9-Churchill AOC nw3x 8f - TURF
With the exception of her debut - excused because of traffic through the lane - when finishing 6th, but only 3 1/4 off the winner, 2-Tapit Today (8/5) has never run a bad race. You can a clue as to just how highly regarded this 5yo daughter of Tapit is to her connections when you note that she was put on the shelf for SIXTEEN months and came back to win her first start in a second level allowance at Tampa by daylight. Next time up she chased multiple graded stakes winner Starship Jubilee and came within a neck of second, which was held by her stakes winning stablemate Magic Star. Trust me, there are no runners that compare with those two for this Chad Brown trainee. That bullet move over the Palm Meadows turf three weeks ago tips her hand as being primed for a BIG shot today under Churchill's leading rider Tyler Gaffalione. The BEST BET.
$30 WIN #2 Tapit Today
5:32 5-Santa Anita Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
The favorite looks logical but I just don't like horses who plunge in class AND go into restricted races off a dull effort like the favorite ran last time out, albeit in a turf sprint. Watching.
PASS
5:36 9-Belmont Maiden Claiming 81/2 f - TURF
A wide open finale where no one catches the eye. But we'll shoot for a price play on a trainer angle. Brad Cox, who normally is NOT in New York has been winning at a big clip (over 40% heading into Saturday's races) and he takes over the training today for 3-Shared Success (6/1) who's made three starts, all on the dirt. Lures Joel Rosario and immediately stretches this colt out long AND goes to the turf while dropping in class - although you could argue that an open Finger Lakes MSW is on par with a state-bred $40K maiden claimer at Belmont.
$5 WIN #3 Shared Success
5:50 10-Churchill Maiden Special 8 furlongs
Last Friday I wrote for the Churchill Downs opener that you would rarely see me picking a runner like Drop Dead Gorgeous. Why? Because she was a 15x - yes fifteen - maiden. But that race was set up for her in my opinion and she won in a runaway. Flash forward to this spot where today may finally, FINALLY be the day for $625K Keeneland grad 1-Copper King (4/1) who's suffered eleven tough losses with NINE second or third place finishes. His last last three figures - the best three numbers he's earned AND they're on the improve - beat every number on the page with one exception. And the horse that earned that one figure came back last time to lose by 14 lengths. Today's the day.
$10 WIN #1 Copper King
6:03 6-Santa Anita Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano 14f - TURF
It looks like 8-Ward 'n Jerry (6/5) will be a short price standout in here. You KNOW that his last out race going a mile was simply a prep for this. It gave him a race off the bench and now we're set to go. Look down the past performances of this guy....the five races at a mile and a quarter or longer are ALL his best races including a win in the Gr 3 San Luis Rey and a just-miss in the Gr 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. Flavian Prat rides today on Brad Free's BEST BET of the day. Run to the window.
$15 WIN #8 Ward 'n Jerry
6:33 7-Santa Anita The Melair 81/2 furlongs
Hate to chalk out and there are reasons to doubt that 1-Big Sweep (6/5) can keep his unbeaten record intact, but not enough to sway me. He's gone two-for-two with a wire win in his debut then an off the pace finish in his first try vs. winners, a state-bred stakes. Goes two turns for the first time today and faces others who've already done that. BUT....his figures are best and he's bred to love the added ground. I also think top rider Flavian Prat sees what I see (and what Brad Free points out) - that he's the LONE SPEED. Right to the front, saves all the ground and is long gone.
$10 WIN #1 Big Sweep
7:03 8-Santa Anita Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
A wide open affair where there isn't anything to hang your hat on. I'm not even going to guess. Good time to have a late dinner.
7:33 9-Santa Anita Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
6-Saving Sophie (5/2) figures to win but can't bet this 8x maiden who finished second three times in a row and has now run three dull races.
8:03 10-Santa Anita Grade 3 American 8f - TURF
8-Bowie's Hero (4/1) is 7-for-16 at this mile distance and is a multiple graded stakes winner. Comes off a layoff and will have to deal with another talented runner in 5-Sharp Samurai (4/1) who's proven off the layoff, but has also finished behind the top one on multiple occasions.
8:33 11-Santa Anita Maiden Special 61/2 furlongs
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has been so impressed with 2-Provocation (5/2) that he nominated the $350K daughter of Into Mischief for a stakes last weekend.....as a first time starting maiden! YOWZA. She has drilled her morning works in company and with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith in the irons she looks really strong in here with a big future in front of her.
9:03 12-Santa Anita AOC nw1x 8f - Turf
A wide-open entry level allowance where you can make a case for and/or against most. I've long since moved into the living room and am watching Jennifer Garner on Prime Video on her hot series, "Alias."
PASS
7:33 9-Santa Anita Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
6-Saving Sophie (5/2) figures to win but can't bet this 8x maiden who finished second three times in a row and has now run three dull races.
PASS
8:03 10-Santa Anita Grade 3 American 8f - TURF
8-Bowie's Hero (4/1) is 7-for-16 at this mile distance and is a multiple graded stakes winner. Comes off a layoff and will have to deal with another talented runner in 5-Sharp Samurai (4/1) who's proven off the layoff, but has also finished behind the top one on multiple occasions.
$5 WIN #8 Bowie's Hero
8:33 11-Santa Anita Maiden Special 61/2 furlongs
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has been so impressed with 2-Provocation (5/2) that he nominated the $350K daughter of Into Mischief for a stakes last weekend.....as a first time starting maiden! YOWZA. She has drilled her morning works in company and with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith in the irons she looks really strong in here with a big future in front of her.
$15 WIN #2 Provocation
9:03 12-Santa Anita AOC nw1x 8f - Turf
A wide-open entry level allowance where you can make a case for and/or against most. I've long since moved into the living room and am watching Jennifer Garner on Prime Video on her hot series, "Alias."
PASS
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