It's Stephen Foster Week at Churchill Downs. Multiple stakes on the docket for both Churchill Downs and Belmont, and it's Ohio Derby Day at Thistledowns....all this on Saturday. Just a quick personal note (it's my website, I can if I want to!) On Monday I drove across the state to look at possible rental homes for us. Our oldest son Jeff has taken a position as head football coach at Oasis High and has asked me to work with him. Let's see, be close to the grandsons, work with my son - who was MY ballboy some thirty years ago...duh, yes. So here's a video walk-through of the home we've picked.
Pretty nice, right? Let's see if we can get some winners home before the weekend!
12:00 1-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 5f - TURF
The weather forecast looks good for racing on the inner, so let's plan for that. The opener is an interesting, cheap $12.5K maiden event. And I agree with the DRF analysis that 10-Wordman (6/1) should enjoy (a) returning to a sprint, and (b) halving his price tag. Granted, when he ran well in his first two starts sprinting on the grass he was in the Todd Pletcher barn. Now he goes out for Phil Serpe. This one-time NY based trainer often had good turf runners. Twice ran third sprinting with numbers that are a pole better than anything else in here, other than 6-Thenextbesthing (7/2) who is the probable speed of the race. In MSW efforts he had three 3rd and three 4th place finishes. But those were out of town. Last out he plunged to this level and showed speed to the stretch and faded.
$5 WIN #10 Wordman
12:30 2-Gulfstream Maiden Special (2yo) 5 furlongs
Todd Pletcher's 3-Son of a Beast (5/2) will take money and is PROBABLY good, and has hot-riding Edgard Zayas on board. But, while I can make a case for 2yo maidens at Keeneland, Saratoga, and Del Mar I find it difficult here at GP in the spring/summer. Just watching.
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
If you're a thoroughbred handicapper and you scan Race 3's past performances one thing LEAPS off the page...... 1-Dizzy Gillespie (8/5) has the rail and is THE Lone Speed. He's won EIGHT times at this one mile trip, and note he's 8-for-21 at 8f and only 3-for-20 at all other distances. Third off the layoff and long gone on the front end. It's strictly his race to loose.
1:34 4-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 81/2 furlongs
While it's true that 5-Speed Franco (7/2) OBVIOUSLY has seen better days, this former graded stakes winner drops into a claiming event for the first time and into conditioned company for the first time as well. Both BIG signs that he'll improve. His last start was several months ago over the Fair Grounds course, but that was in a 2nd level allowance when he was coming off of seven month layoff. He ran a strong 80 Beyer after finishing 4th beaten just three lengths. Note that he was up on the pace and most winners over the New Orleans course come from off the pace. If he's got anything left in the tank from his former classy efforts, he's your winner here.
2:05 5-Gulfstream Maiden Special 81/2 furlongs
Here's what you have to decide....is the Chad Brown 2nd string filly 5-Baseline Drive (5/2) better than the more experienced So Fla spring/summer fillies? You KNOW that if Brown thought Baseline Drive was REALLY good he'd have taken her north to Belmont with his "first team." And those runners - especially those on the turf - have been running lights out. I, for one, think that a Brown first timer IS better than the common maiden based down here year round. 'Drive is a daughter of champion Point of Entry and has been working steadily since mid March. Edgard Zayas riding very well right now. No surprise either way, but worth the gamble I believe.
2:37 6-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
Very little to like here. You COULD gamble on 8-Baseline (4/1) who before the break was beating this kind at this trip at Parx. But when he showed up here he tried turf (he'd run on it before and ran ok) and was buried. Not a fan.
3:09 7-Gulfstream Claiming 8f - TURF
I often find winners in spots similar to this. This is a $35K "beaten" event where the conditions read, "....for 3yo and up which have never won three races OR which have not won a race since December 24, 2019...." I've found when the conditions are so specific you can often find a horse that the conditions were apparently written to fit that one runner. In this case it's 6-Tropicat (4/1) who is a five time winner on the turf - all at this one mile trip. And he's won four times over this grass course. But note the last win..... December 19, 2019! Uh oh. Wouldn't be a surprise if Todd Pletcher's 5-Colonist (5/1) won here. Before the layoff line EIGHT of the ten races were in stakes, five of them graded! Off a LONG layoff he ran in back-to-back $100K optional allowance races. He ran a "good" but well beaten third in an off-the-turf event last time out but today PLUNGES in for a tag. That doesn't look like a "confident" move to me.
3:41 8-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
The field of eight has a combined, COMBINED two starts at today's difficult seven furlong trip. One of those starts was a win, by nearly a dozen lengths by 7-Flute Maker (8/1) who is the DRF Best Bet. And while he could win, he won't get my money. Since that maiden win he's run three times, with the three losses by a combined 45 lengths. OUCH.
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
I would not argue if you analyze my choice here and say, "No, not for me." But 4-Hera (9/2) gets Paco Lopez on board for David Carlos. Carlos winning 28% overall, and when Paco is up - they win at a big 42%. Uh oh. Why wouldn't you like this choice? Hera has NEVER run in a turf sprint. But the way I see it, there's a lot of speed and Paco keeps Hera close enough, then blows by.
4:45 10-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
IF, and granted it's a fairly big "IF" this race runs to form the winner will be either 8-First In Line (5/2) or 10-Mountain Breeze (7/2) who both will be coming from off the pace. I prefer the former because he SHOULD sit a little closer to the front and work out a better trip. Also, their identical Beyers came in the last start for the former and three starts back for Mountain Breeze. Close call.
PASS
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
If you're a thoroughbred handicapper and you scan Race 3's past performances one thing LEAPS off the page...... 1-Dizzy Gillespie (8/5) has the rail and is THE Lone Speed. He's won EIGHT times at this one mile trip, and note he's 8-for-21 at 8f and only 3-for-20 at all other distances. Third off the layoff and long gone on the front end. It's strictly his race to loose.
$15 WIN #1 Dizzy Gillespie
1:34 4-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 81/2 furlongs
While it's true that 5-Speed Franco (7/2) OBVIOUSLY has seen better days, this former graded stakes winner drops into a claiming event for the first time and into conditioned company for the first time as well. Both BIG signs that he'll improve. His last start was several months ago over the Fair Grounds course, but that was in a 2nd level allowance when he was coming off of seven month layoff. He ran a strong 80 Beyer after finishing 4th beaten just three lengths. Note that he was up on the pace and most winners over the New Orleans course come from off the pace. If he's got anything left in the tank from his former classy efforts, he's your winner here.
$5 WIN #5 Speed Franco
2:05 5-Gulfstream Maiden Special 81/2 furlongs
Here's what you have to decide....is the Chad Brown 2nd string filly 5-Baseline Drive (5/2) better than the more experienced So Fla spring/summer fillies? You KNOW that if Brown thought Baseline Drive was REALLY good he'd have taken her north to Belmont with his "first team." And those runners - especially those on the turf - have been running lights out. I, for one, think that a Brown first timer IS better than the common maiden based down here year round. 'Drive is a daughter of champion Point of Entry and has been working steadily since mid March. Edgard Zayas riding very well right now. No surprise either way, but worth the gamble I believe.
$5 WIN #5 Baseline Drive
2:37 6-Gulfstream Claiming 8 furlongs
Very little to like here. You COULD gamble on 8-Baseline (4/1) who before the break was beating this kind at this trip at Parx. But when he showed up here he tried turf (he'd run on it before and ran ok) and was buried. Not a fan.
PASS
3:09 7-Gulfstream Claiming 8f - TURF
I often find winners in spots similar to this. This is a $35K "beaten" event where the conditions read, "....for 3yo and up which have never won three races OR which have not won a race since December 24, 2019...." I've found when the conditions are so specific you can often find a horse that the conditions were apparently written to fit that one runner. In this case it's 6-Tropicat (4/1) who is a five time winner on the turf - all at this one mile trip. And he's won four times over this grass course. But note the last win..... December 19, 2019! Uh oh. Wouldn't be a surprise if Todd Pletcher's 5-Colonist (5/1) won here. Before the layoff line EIGHT of the ten races were in stakes, five of them graded! Off a LONG layoff he ran in back-to-back $100K optional allowance races. He ran a "good" but well beaten third in an off-the-turf event last time out but today PLUNGES in for a tag. That doesn't look like a "confident" move to me.
$10 WIN #6 Tropicat
3:41 8-Gulfstream Claiming nw2L 7 furlongs
The field of eight has a combined, COMBINED two starts at today's difficult seven furlong trip. One of those starts was a win, by nearly a dozen lengths by 7-Flute Maker (8/1) who is the DRF Best Bet. And while he could win, he won't get my money. Since that maiden win he's run three times, with the three losses by a combined 45 lengths. OUCH.
PASS
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
I would not argue if you analyze my choice here and say, "No, not for me." But 4-Hera (9/2) gets Paco Lopez on board for David Carlos. Carlos winning 28% overall, and when Paco is up - they win at a big 42%. Uh oh. Why wouldn't you like this choice? Hera has NEVER run in a turf sprint. But the way I see it, there's a lot of speed and Paco keeps Hera close enough, then blows by.
$10 WIN #4 Hera
4:45 10-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
IF, and granted it's a fairly big "IF" this race runs to form the winner will be either 8-First In Line (5/2) or 10-Mountain Breeze (7/2) who both will be coming from off the pace. I prefer the former because he SHOULD sit a little closer to the front and work out a better trip. Also, their identical Beyers came in the last start for the former and three starts back for Mountain Breeze. Close call.
PASS
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