Today we'll play Belmont and Woodbine. I've always loved playing Woodbine (even spent an entire season handicapping daily there). The main draw today is the Jacques Cartier Stakes where the ultimate Horse-for-the-Course Pink Lloyd makes his 2020 debut. Here we go.....
1:15 1-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f - TURF
Everyone in here has "issues" to overcome and the top pick is far from "solid," but it JUST COULD be that the stars have aligned and the "racing gods" are trying to set us up here. Or not. But, as I said in the intro, the main attraction today is Pink Lloyd in the featured stakes in Toronto. So as I scan the first race here in New York, who's the morning line favorite? 9-Plink Fleud (5/2) of all names....is it a coincidence, probably. Are the "racing gods" giving us one? MAYBE..... Not a fan that this 4yo filly has already been out TEN times, but she's run at this 6f distance three times and been close - the first two vs. MSW and the last a troubled 6th. Beaten only 1 3/4 lengths after stumbling out of the gate. Jose Ortiz up. Lightly raced 3-Dream Chasing (3/1) the logical alternative. First time tag and only the second time on the turf. But the Beyers are significantly lower. Go with the hunch play to start the day!
$5 WIN #9 Plink Fleud
1:50 2-Belmont Claiming nw2L 61/2 furlongs
Nine of the ten are either last out maiden claiming winners or long-time losers in two-lifetime claiming company. The lone runner who's never been in restricted company is 20/1 and his pp's look every bit of that. Moving on.....
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
A dozen state-bred maiden claimers for a moderate $25 tag. And more than two thirds of them have had many, MANY chances. Interesting that the DRF's Mike Beer has his "best bet" in here. But you have to know Beer and how he makes his picks. Next to never likes the favorite and almost always his "best" is a price play. I'll grant you that his analysis is "accurate," but do I agree that this is the "most likely winner" and/or best bet on the card. No, hardly.
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 81/2 f - TURF
Even the top choice in here is far from a "confident" play but I like the angle on 3-Abiding Star (5/1) today. Granted, he'll have to win off the layoff, but nearly all of them have been away for a while. One of the big plus signs here is that the rest of the field has collectively a 4-for-43 mark over the Belmont grass. Meanwhile, Abiding Star himself is 4-for-10. Nice edge. Second, last year he ran at this level and distance and wired the field for fun. He then ran in a 2nd level allowance here and then was ambitiously campaigned.....FIVE straight stakes at five different tracks, at four different distances. And he collected two runner-up checks and WON a stakes in that sequence. His head had to be spinning with the distances and travel. Now back to a claiming spot at a distance he likes.
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f - TURF
Nothing in the field with experience inspires me. But 7-Quantitativebreezin (9/2) debuts for trainer Brad Cox who's been white hot since Belmont opened. Winning at a 33% clip for the meet he's also well known for great work with turf runners. Luis Saez has won with FIVE of ten for Cox here at Belmont. If this debut runner has even a modicum of talent he's got a good chance at getting his photo taken after his initial start.
3:45 1-Woodbine Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
Let's first establish we're talking about ultra-cheap $7.5K maidens here so let's not go wild. I do like the chances for 5-Don't Smile Lila (9/5) who came off the bench and ran a good third for twice the price tag. Gets the nation's Eclipse Award winning apprentice from last year on board. Like her even more considering the other two favorites..... 6-Flat Out Fabulous (2/1) clearly has better figures (in three straight) but she's an ELEVEN time maiden, the last four at this same level and five back for a cheap $4K. No, big time no. And 2-Enhanced Finances (5/2) COULD win (where as I don't believe 'Fabulous could win if she was the only one in the race!) after she showed speed for a half mile then backed up vs. $10K last time off the bench. But I have a hard time backing a rider who's off to a 1-for-41 start to the meet. YIKES.
3:59 6-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8 furlongs
You have to be suspicious when a thoroughbred suddenly runs a huge Beyer figure, especially in defeat (since Beyer figures are determined first by assigning the number to the winner, then beaten lengths largely determine everyone else's number). But it's worth noting that 3-Singular Sensation (2/1) earned that last out 83 - tons the best for this field - when second beaten a neck to Ratajowski who came right back to win and then won last Thursday's feature, The Critical Eye Stakes. We're on board, and it doesn't hurt the confidence level that Mike Beer, never one to like the favorite, puts her on top as well.
4:14 2-Woodbine Claiming nw3L 51/2 furlongs
All six have lost in restricted company and the 9/5 favorite has lost at this condition and price tag in three straight. NOPE....
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 6f - TURF
So this analysis for every handicapper has to go through what you think of 7-Dowse's Beach (2/1) in here. The now 9yo gelding has won 13 times on the turf and is 4-for-13 at this unique trip. Has clearly THE BEST Beyers. BUT.....all those were earned while being trained by Jason Servis who has been suspended from training and under indictment for use of various drugs to move up his horses. So, at nine, at a short price, out of the Servis barn. What do you do? For me I can't bet on him. But I don't see anyone else who's clearly good enough to beat him.
4:43 3-Woodbine Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
By default you HAVE to consider 3-Twick (5/2) who debuts today. She debuts in the cheapest of cheap ($7.5K) maiden events going six furlongs and it has to be a concern that this is where they start her. BUT then you look at her competition. Who bets the favorite, 6-Cheetahra (2/1) in here? OK, so the numbers are better, but seriously folks, this 7-year-old - yes, seven-year-old maiden, has already been out twenty-seven times. Wait, what? Yes, you read that right.......27 starts and no wins, and SHE is the favorite. Against this same kind to close out last year she went off at odds of 24/1, 38/1, 27/1, and 17/1. And today she's the 2/1 favorite. Come on. The other four have ultra-low Beyers so if Twick can even jog quickly she's your winner.
5:04 8-Belmont The Easy Goer Stakes (3yo) 81/2 furlongs
The featured event, usually run on the undercard of Belmont Day, features three-year-olds going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth. Half the field of six exit wins in an entry level allowance and the others were not competitive in graded stakes last out. I think Steve Asmussen's 4-Sonneman (2/1) has some real talent. His only poor effort came in a 5 1/2 furlong 2yo debut at Saratoga. When stretched to 7f at the Spa he was a best-of-the-rest 2nd. Came to Belmont and broke his maiden at a one-turn mile. Back to 7f for his 3yo debut at Gulfstream and he closed that race down, first time winners from well back. Was under Mark Henning's care through that race and now Asmussen takes over and puts the son of Curlin into a stakes spot.
5:12 4-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
1-Sea Lily (5/2) gets the call but won't get my money. Just can't bring myself to like her enough in this $15K 2L claiming event. Ran three times in a MC $25 with two good efforts last year, scoring in the third try. Off the long break the connections brought her back in allowance company to start this year and she opened up by daylight to the far turn. Then plummeted through the field to finish 9th. Drops in for the cheap tag and conditioned company but looks to take some pace pressure. Interesting that - like in NY - the DRF Best is in this puzzling event. And the top choice is a runner who is 1-for-11, never won on the Woodbine main (won over the turf), is winless at the distance, and has three times lost in 2-lifetime company. I can't take that.
5:36 9-Belmont Maiden Special 7f - TURF
You CAN'T have any confidence in here. Several who are firsters, several who've never been on turf, and all those with experience have only gone six furlongs.
I'm out of NY today.
5:45 5-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 5f - TURF
While you don't know for sure, three angles APPEAR to point out the favorite 2-Act of Bob (2/1) this evening. First, she drops out of an allowance event in for a first time tag AND in conditioned company for the first time. That always produces improved efforts. Second, she adds blinkers today and you HAVE to think that had something to do with the recent bullet work. And third, she gets a rider switch back to the 2019 Eclipse Award winning apprentice rider who was on board for her first two starts which were both quality efforts.
6:15 6-Woodbine AOC / C 6f - TURF
Trainer Robert Tiller sends out 1-Reconfigure (3/1) who IF the 8yo runs back to his last three appearances at this distance on the turf would be tough to beat. In a race at this level going slightly farther at 6 1/2 furlongs he took the lead and was clear by a length, only to be run down late, losing by less than a length. Back in another conditioned allowance, and this at this 6f distance and was clear in the lane before getting nailed on the wire - second beaten a head. Came right back in the Gr 2 Nearctic Stakes and was 2nd beaten a neck. Those three Beyers 86-89-92 would all be tough to beat in here today. His thing is turf (8/4-3-1) and he goes second off the long break, synthetic to turf and stretches out a full furlong.
6:45 7-Woodbine Grade 3 Jacques Cartier 6 furlongs
Well, just looking at the morning line you KNOW we aren't going to make any money on this evening's feature.....
But you don't much more consistent that 5-Pink Lloyd (1/9) at the races. This guy has been out 27 times with 22 wins. All of them here at Woodbine. And at this six furlong distance, he's a remarkable 17-for-18. Oh my. He's won this race three year's running. OH MY. He was a perfect 6-for-6 last year, officially (have to toss the left-at-the-gate, declared a non-starter event). Is he ready to run? Well he ALWAYS fires fresh and blistered a bullet work for this. He's beaten everyone in here on more than one occasion with one exception who just was a narrow winner of an entry level allowance off the bench. Pink Lloyd - the BET of the DAY for Thursday.
7:15 8-Woodbine Claiming nw3L 51/2 furlongs
The presence of speedy 1-Buttermilk Pike (2/1) on the rail makes it difficult to bet this race. You simply cannot trust that 90 Beyer he earned off the bench when wiring a cheap field of $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime, while in COMPLETE control (one of the most unreliable Beyer figures - a loose on the lead wire-to-wire winner). And now he's in for $25K while up to 3-lifetime? AND he'd never run faster than a mid-70s before? But, what if he does. Won't bet on him, but also won't bet against. Just watching.
PASS
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
A dozen state-bred maiden claimers for a moderate $25 tag. And more than two thirds of them have had many, MANY chances. Interesting that the DRF's Mike Beer has his "best bet" in here. But you have to know Beer and how he makes his picks. Next to never likes the favorite and almost always his "best" is a price play. I'll grant you that his analysis is "accurate," but do I agree that this is the "most likely winner" and/or best bet on the card. No, hardly.
PASS
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 81/2 f - TURF
Even the top choice in here is far from a "confident" play but I like the angle on 3-Abiding Star (5/1) today. Granted, he'll have to win off the layoff, but nearly all of them have been away for a while. One of the big plus signs here is that the rest of the field has collectively a 4-for-43 mark over the Belmont grass. Meanwhile, Abiding Star himself is 4-for-10. Nice edge. Second, last year he ran at this level and distance and wired the field for fun. He then ran in a 2nd level allowance here and then was ambitiously campaigned.....FIVE straight stakes at five different tracks, at four different distances. And he collected two runner-up checks and WON a stakes in that sequence. His head had to be spinning with the distances and travel. Now back to a claiming spot at a distance he likes.
$10 WIN #3 Abiding Star
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f - TURF
Nothing in the field with experience inspires me. But 7-Quantitativebreezin (9/2) debuts for trainer Brad Cox who's been white hot since Belmont opened. Winning at a 33% clip for the meet he's also well known for great work with turf runners. Luis Saez has won with FIVE of ten for Cox here at Belmont. If this debut runner has even a modicum of talent he's got a good chance at getting his photo taken after his initial start.
$5 WIN #7 Quantitativebreezin
3:45 1-Woodbine Maiden Claiming 5 furlongs
Let's first establish we're talking about ultra-cheap $7.5K maidens here so let's not go wild. I do like the chances for 5-Don't Smile Lila (9/5) who came off the bench and ran a good third for twice the price tag. Gets the nation's Eclipse Award winning apprentice from last year on board. Like her even more considering the other two favorites..... 6-Flat Out Fabulous (2/1) clearly has better figures (in three straight) but she's an ELEVEN time maiden, the last four at this same level and five back for a cheap $4K. No, big time no. And 2-Enhanced Finances (5/2) COULD win (where as I don't believe 'Fabulous could win if she was the only one in the race!) after she showed speed for a half mile then backed up vs. $10K last time off the bench. But I have a hard time backing a rider who's off to a 1-for-41 start to the meet. YIKES.
$5 WIN #5 Don't Smile Lila
3:59 6-Belmont Allowance nw1x 8 furlongs
You have to be suspicious when a thoroughbred suddenly runs a huge Beyer figure, especially in defeat (since Beyer figures are determined first by assigning the number to the winner, then beaten lengths largely determine everyone else's number). But it's worth noting that 3-Singular Sensation (2/1) earned that last out 83 - tons the best for this field - when second beaten a neck to Ratajowski who came right back to win and then won last Thursday's feature, The Critical Eye Stakes. We're on board, and it doesn't hurt the confidence level that Mike Beer, never one to like the favorite, puts her on top as well.
$5 WIN #3 Singular Sensation
4:14 2-Woodbine Claiming nw3L 51/2 furlongs
All six have lost in restricted company and the 9/5 favorite has lost at this condition and price tag in three straight. NOPE....
PASS
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 6f - TURF
So this analysis for every handicapper has to go through what you think of 7-Dowse's Beach (2/1) in here. The now 9yo gelding has won 13 times on the turf and is 4-for-13 at this unique trip. Has clearly THE BEST Beyers. BUT.....all those were earned while being trained by Jason Servis who has been suspended from training and under indictment for use of various drugs to move up his horses. So, at nine, at a short price, out of the Servis barn. What do you do? For me I can't bet on him. But I don't see anyone else who's clearly good enough to beat him.
PASS
4:43 3-Woodbine Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
By default you HAVE to consider 3-Twick (5/2) who debuts today. She debuts in the cheapest of cheap ($7.5K) maiden events going six furlongs and it has to be a concern that this is where they start her. BUT then you look at her competition. Who bets the favorite, 6-Cheetahra (2/1) in here? OK, so the numbers are better, but seriously folks, this 7-year-old - yes, seven-year-old maiden, has already been out twenty-seven times. Wait, what? Yes, you read that right.......27 starts and no wins, and SHE is the favorite. Against this same kind to close out last year she went off at odds of 24/1, 38/1, 27/1, and 17/1. And today she's the 2/1 favorite. Come on. The other four have ultra-low Beyers so if Twick can even jog quickly she's your winner.
$5 WIN #3 Twick
(up the bet if she takes money)
(up the bet if she takes money)
5:04 8-Belmont The Easy Goer Stakes (3yo) 81/2 furlongs
The featured event, usually run on the undercard of Belmont Day, features three-year-olds going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth. Half the field of six exit wins in an entry level allowance and the others were not competitive in graded stakes last out. I think Steve Asmussen's 4-Sonneman (2/1) has some real talent. His only poor effort came in a 5 1/2 furlong 2yo debut at Saratoga. When stretched to 7f at the Spa he was a best-of-the-rest 2nd. Came to Belmont and broke his maiden at a one-turn mile. Back to 7f for his 3yo debut at Gulfstream and he closed that race down, first time winners from well back. Was under Mark Henning's care through that race and now Asmussen takes over and puts the son of Curlin into a stakes spot.
$5 WIN #4 Sonneman
5:12 4-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 6 furlongs
1-Sea Lily (5/2) gets the call but won't get my money. Just can't bring myself to like her enough in this $15K 2L claiming event. Ran three times in a MC $25 with two good efforts last year, scoring in the third try. Off the long break the connections brought her back in allowance company to start this year and she opened up by daylight to the far turn. Then plummeted through the field to finish 9th. Drops in for the cheap tag and conditioned company but looks to take some pace pressure. Interesting that - like in NY - the DRF Best is in this puzzling event. And the top choice is a runner who is 1-for-11, never won on the Woodbine main (won over the turf), is winless at the distance, and has three times lost in 2-lifetime company. I can't take that.
PASS
5:36 9-Belmont Maiden Special 7f - TURF
You CAN'T have any confidence in here. Several who are firsters, several who've never been on turf, and all those with experience have only gone six furlongs.
I'm out of NY today.
PASS
5:45 5-Woodbine Claiming nw2L 5f - TURF
While you don't know for sure, three angles APPEAR to point out the favorite 2-Act of Bob (2/1) this evening. First, she drops out of an allowance event in for a first time tag AND in conditioned company for the first time. That always produces improved efforts. Second, she adds blinkers today and you HAVE to think that had something to do with the recent bullet work. And third, she gets a rider switch back to the 2019 Eclipse Award winning apprentice rider who was on board for her first two starts which were both quality efforts.
$5 WIN #2 Act of Bob
6:15 6-Woodbine AOC / C 6f - TURF
Trainer Robert Tiller sends out 1-Reconfigure (3/1) who IF the 8yo runs back to his last three appearances at this distance on the turf would be tough to beat. In a race at this level going slightly farther at 6 1/2 furlongs he took the lead and was clear by a length, only to be run down late, losing by less than a length. Back in another conditioned allowance, and this at this 6f distance and was clear in the lane before getting nailed on the wire - second beaten a head. Came right back in the Gr 2 Nearctic Stakes and was 2nd beaten a neck. Those three Beyers 86-89-92 would all be tough to beat in here today. His thing is turf (8/4-3-1) and he goes second off the long break, synthetic to turf and stretches out a full furlong.
$10 WIN #1 Reconfigure
6:45 7-Woodbine Grade 3 Jacques Cartier 6 furlongs
Well, just looking at the morning line you KNOW we aren't going to make any money on this evening's feature.....
But you don't much more consistent that 5-Pink Lloyd (1/9) at the races. This guy has been out 27 times with 22 wins. All of them here at Woodbine. And at this six furlong distance, he's a remarkable 17-for-18. Oh my. He's won this race three year's running. OH MY. He was a perfect 6-for-6 last year, officially (have to toss the left-at-the-gate, declared a non-starter event). Is he ready to run? Well he ALWAYS fires fresh and blistered a bullet work for this. He's beaten everyone in here on more than one occasion with one exception who just was a narrow winner of an entry level allowance off the bench. Pink Lloyd - the BET of the DAY for Thursday.
$50 WIN #5 Pink Lloyd
7:15 8-Woodbine Claiming nw3L 51/2 furlongs
The presence of speedy 1-Buttermilk Pike (2/1) on the rail makes it difficult to bet this race. You simply cannot trust that 90 Beyer he earned off the bench when wiring a cheap field of $7.5K non-winners of two lifetime, while in COMPLETE control (one of the most unreliable Beyer figures - a loose on the lead wire-to-wire winner). And now he's in for $25K while up to 3-lifetime? AND he'd never run faster than a mid-70s before? But, what if he does. Won't bet on him, but also won't bet against. Just watching.
PASS
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