Just spending the day in New York today, spending more time looking at multiple tracks for tomorrow's big day of racing.
1:15 1-Belmont Claiming nw2L 61/2 furlongs
Typically not a fan of taking last out maiden winners who earned a new career top figure, but in this case 4-Star of the West (4/5) is a deserving favorite. Claimed out of a Saratoga debut maiden event by trainer Rudy Rodriguez for OWNER Rudy Rodriguez he was sent to the sidelines for eleven months. When the 4yo resurfaced it was for the same $20K but under protection from being claimed. With blinkers on the colt shot to the front and dominated the field in wire to wire fashion. And normally earning a new career top (74) loose on the lead would be suspect, but in this short field of five he looks loose again. Sure, one of the rivals COULD change running styles but last time out these were the running positions at the first call for today's opponents: 13th by 10, 8th by 12, 4th by 2, 10th by 9 3/4, and 5th by 3 1/2. Hot-riding Irad on board should coast wire to wire. A pressing trip COULD get the money for the upset on 6-Dr. Devera's Way (6/1) but after "building" a career mark of 12/1-2-1 and five straight losses at this level I just don't think so.
$10 WIN #4 Star of the West
1:50 2-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6 furlongs
I've remarked on several occasions when handicapping NYRA races that DRF analyst Mike Beer, who covers New York racing is a "value player" and rarely likes the favorite. So it carries some weight that he likes the 4/5 favorite in the opener and comes right back with the short priced chalk here in the second. 3-Cobble Hill (6/5) COULD be played against, and I get it that you can make numbers say anything. But consider this view..... In his last five starts he's earned two dirt sprint numbers that beat 58 of the 59 Beyers of today's field, and that was in a state-bred race while Cobble Hill has seen nothing but open company. What about the other three starts? Toss the two-turn turf try; toss the MSW in open company; and then if you're willing to toss the try in the mud, that leaves you with the two dominant efforts. And note that the last race second came when chasing loose on the lead Star of the West....yes the pick in the first race. So we'll feel even more confident if that one runs well today against winners, as we expect.
$10 WIN #3 Cobble Hill
2:23 3-Belmont Allowance nw1x 81/2 f - TURF
It's a "Chalk With Irad" kind of day as Ortiz takes the call on the very talented 1-Good Governance (3/5) who's trained by Chad Brown. The Klaravich owned colt debuted as a 3yo at Saratoga and drew post ten of eleven going a mile. Was last at the first call then rallied wide to win with a big 86 figure. Came back first time vs. winners in the Gr 3 Saranac and was a neck away from winning against Global Access who exited this race to win another Gr 3 event. Granted the 'Governor has not been seen since that mid-August effort, but Brown has already won SIX times with long layoff turf horses, and don't they all seem to be Klaravich runners with Irad up? Looks really good in here.
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 6f - TURF
In the twelve lines showing in the past performances for 4-Sanity (5/2) she's only sprinted on the turf in four races. And her figures in those (78-76-76-75) ALL rank at the top of the numbers earned by everyone else in here. And what separates her from the morning line favorite, 3-First Appeal (4/5) in my mind, is that all of those numbers for Sanity came in open allowance events. First Appeal meanwhile has been facing state-bred rivals. And included in her string of efforts is a loss for a tag, with the lone win in a "beaten" $16K event going five furlongs at Gulfstream in 2019. It's unrealistic, I think, to honestly believe Irad Ortiz will be in the winner's circle after each of the first four races, but he looks to be "LIVE" again in here on Sanity.
3:27 5-Belmont Claiming 7 furlongs
Maybe 7-Tale of the Mist (7/2) gets the job done in here on the class drop. Have to be concerned with the 44/4-8-13 career mark, ouch. But much better locally (15/3-3-4) and unlike most in here he's run well at the distance. The favorite has Irad, but 5-Javelin (9/5) is 0-for-12 here at Belmont. I just can't support that with a real money wager.
3:59 6-Belmont Maiden Special 8f - TURF
I understand the reluctance to take the favorite, in a maiden race no less. But it's all about who is the best horse with the most likely chance to win. AND that offers enough of an edge to wager on. To me, the fact that 4-Barleewon (2/1) finished in front of FIVE of the nine entered here three weeks ago, coming off three month break, makes the 3yo colt a legitimate favorite. The four who have not faced him are.... a second time starter who debuted in a Saratoga dirt sprint and now goes off the shelf, long on the turf; a So Cal shipper who's only turf try was miserable; a 10x maiden who's been clear on the front multiple times and caved each and every time; a 12/1 outsider who's got two dirt sprints while beaten double digits in both starts; and a first time starter for a barn that's 1-for-15. It's graduation day for the Michael Stidham charge with Johnny Velazquez up.
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 81/2 f - TURF
Eight of the nine have spent their entire career in state-bred allowance races; half just won the first level allowance and the others have run in second level allowance tries. Not a fan of betting those kind, and especially when most have seen each other. But the favorite, 9-Rinaldi (3/1) fits the profile for this level of competition. He was a good third in a 6f turf sprint then broke his maiden in a 7f turf sprint in a state-bred NY Stallion Series stakes event. Stretched around two turns and dominated another NY Stallion Series stakes. Tried open company in the Gr 3 Saranac - yes, the same race that Race 3 choice Good Governance exits - and was a close fourth. The only question is the long layoff for a barn firing at a 1-for-17 clip. Ouch....Luis Saez up.
5:04 8-Belmont The Hessonite Stakes 6f - TURF
It's a wide open featured event where several have faced each other; several have raced in open company; and several have won at this unique 6f turf trip. Just watching.
5:36 9-Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
If 1-Kefaliani (9/2) runs back to her last when a best of the rest 2nd behind a repeat winner, she's your winner at a fair price under Manny Franco. That race was in January so you'd like to see some nice works. But the most recent work is a 72nd of 79 workers. Hmmmm.
$15 WIN #1 Good Governance
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 6f - TURF
In the twelve lines showing in the past performances for 4-Sanity (5/2) she's only sprinted on the turf in four races. And her figures in those (78-76-76-75) ALL rank at the top of the numbers earned by everyone else in here. And what separates her from the morning line favorite, 3-First Appeal (4/5) in my mind, is that all of those numbers for Sanity came in open allowance events. First Appeal meanwhile has been facing state-bred rivals. And included in her string of efforts is a loss for a tag, with the lone win in a "beaten" $16K event going five furlongs at Gulfstream in 2019. It's unrealistic, I think, to honestly believe Irad Ortiz will be in the winner's circle after each of the first four races, but he looks to be "LIVE" again in here on Sanity.
$10 WIN #4 Sanity
3:27 5-Belmont Claiming 7 furlongs
Maybe 7-Tale of the Mist (7/2) gets the job done in here on the class drop. Have to be concerned with the 44/4-8-13 career mark, ouch. But much better locally (15/3-3-4) and unlike most in here he's run well at the distance. The favorite has Irad, but 5-Javelin (9/5) is 0-for-12 here at Belmont. I just can't support that with a real money wager.
PASS
3:59 6-Belmont Maiden Special 8f - TURF
I understand the reluctance to take the favorite, in a maiden race no less. But it's all about who is the best horse with the most likely chance to win. AND that offers enough of an edge to wager on. To me, the fact that 4-Barleewon (2/1) finished in front of FIVE of the nine entered here three weeks ago, coming off three month break, makes the 3yo colt a legitimate favorite. The four who have not faced him are.... a second time starter who debuted in a Saratoga dirt sprint and now goes off the shelf, long on the turf; a So Cal shipper who's only turf try was miserable; a 10x maiden who's been clear on the front multiple times and caved each and every time; a 12/1 outsider who's got two dirt sprints while beaten double digits in both starts; and a first time starter for a barn that's 1-for-15. It's graduation day for the Michael Stidham charge with Johnny Velazquez up.
$5 WIN #4 Barleewon
4:32 7-Belmont AOC nw2x 81/2 f - TURF
Eight of the nine have spent their entire career in state-bred allowance races; half just won the first level allowance and the others have run in second level allowance tries. Not a fan of betting those kind, and especially when most have seen each other. But the favorite, 9-Rinaldi (3/1) fits the profile for this level of competition. He was a good third in a 6f turf sprint then broke his maiden in a 7f turf sprint in a state-bred NY Stallion Series stakes event. Stretched around two turns and dominated another NY Stallion Series stakes. Tried open company in the Gr 3 Saranac - yes, the same race that Race 3 choice Good Governance exits - and was a close fourth. The only question is the long layoff for a barn firing at a 1-for-17 clip. Ouch....Luis Saez up.
$5 WIN #9 Rinaldi
5:04 8-Belmont The Hessonite Stakes 6f - TURF
It's a wide open featured event where several have faced each other; several have raced in open company; and several have won at this unique 6f turf trip. Just watching.
PASS
5:36 9-Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
If 1-Kefaliani (9/2) runs back to her last when a best of the rest 2nd behind a repeat winner, she's your winner at a fair price under Manny Franco. That race was in January so you'd like to see some nice works. But the most recent work is a 72nd of 79 workers. Hmmmm.
PASS
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