Wednesday June 3
Welcome to the "new look" selection page for today's racing. Decided to try a new online format for posting the selections. We'll see how this plays out. Today my plan is to play Belmont's opening day card and take a look at the Gulfstream races for today.
12:00 1-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 9f - TURF
The best bet in the Gulfstream opener, as we move to a new summer schedule (racing on Wed, Fri - Sun AND a noon post time) comes if rained off the turf with MTO: 9-Timing (6/5) who "double drops" after facing richer in price tag AND on the NYRA circuit in his first two starts. The debut at today's 9 furlong trip when fourth beaten a neck for a big $40K tag points him out against grass runners for a mere $12K today. The 80% chance for rain today makes him a likely first race choice. Should this stay on the inner course then the only question is, does 4-Violent Fight (5/2) get the distance? His first two starts came in five furlong turf sprints against $50K and then last time out vs. $25K rivals. He was third in the most recent which has already produced THREE next-out winners.
$15 WIN MTO: #9 Timing
12:30 2-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 8f - TURF
You'd think in comparing the $12.5K maiden claimer in the opener to this $50K maiden claimer that there would be a much more definitive choice in the second half of the daily double. But that's not the case. My only interest would come if this DOES stay on the inner course, in which case I'd like the chances of Saffie Joseph's 6-Mystery Bank (5/2), with Paco Lopez up. Was talented enough to exit a second, beaten a neck at this class level to then run 3rd in an OPEN $50K claiming event. Came back most recently to set the pace into the stretch before weakening to be third in a MSW event won by Venetian Hug. That's noteworthy as that colt earned a big 83 Beyer and came right back to beat $50K starter optional claiming rivals on Saturday as the short-priced favorite. On the main track there are many options, too hard to separate in my opinion. By virtue of the "mto" status, MTO: 2-Blessed Journey (3/1) is the likely winner, but betting on him would depend on who remains in the mix. While it's true six of his ten losses have come on grass, so for purposes of a dirt race he's "only" 0-for-4 with good efforts vs. this same level. Still, the fact he's run "well" without winning and already has double digit losses is worrisome to this handicapper.
$10 WIN #6 Mystery Bank
1:02 3-Gulfstream Claiming 81/2f
Far from a "good bet," you can't really look past 6-War Giant (3/5) unless you're "hoping for value" with your gamble. I get it, in the long run you'll probably lose money betting against this type but my statistics seem to bear out that in this column when I am willing to go in on these "bad bet" types at a short price I win far more than I lose. And when I do it's with these kind.... War Giant plunges out of four optional/allowance races - where he won one and was buried by a combined 40+ lengths in the other three - all the way down to this $6.25K level. That's scary for sure. But trainer Saffie Joseph does this on a regular basis. War Giant has tons of back class and has earned nearly $30K for the barn this year, so if lost via the claim for the price tag he's been more than a worthy investment. If he goes wire to wire and scores at odds of about 2/5 as expected and does NOT draw a claim, then they will move him up the ladder to make more money. The lone alternative you may consider is 5-Sensational Ride (7/2) who is a NINETEEN time winner. That alone makes him worthy of a look-see. He was 2nd beaten a neck in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse with a 92 Beyer. Came back off that effort at 6/5 in a $50K claimer and was a fading fourth beaten more than half a dozen. Two back he was the short-priced 6/5 favorite all the way down to $8K and again was buried, finishing 7th beaten 15 lengths. Maybe he wakes up?
$10 WIN #6 War Giant
1:15 1-Belmont Maiden Claiming 61/2 furlongs
A word of caution as we go through the first day of racing in New York in months....nearly all the runners and most of the riders have not seen action in quite a while. Could lead to some unexpected results as the racing at Laurel when they opened on Saturday did. In this $20K elongated sprint event the numbers just scream to pick 4-Dodged A Bullet (4/1) on the basis of his two and three back Beyer figures. Those "paired" 72 numbers are a pole better than anything anyone else has run. But what do you make of his debut 43 BSF when 8th and then even more concerning his "most recent" slow 38 figure when a distanced third at Laurel for this same tag. Wouldn't you love to know the story on 2-Cobble Hill (4/1) who lures the nation's leading rider, Irad Ortiz who's been piling up the numbers riding this spring at Gulfstream (131 wins to date this year). The barn is firing at a 37% win rate on the year as well, so why isn't this one the top pick? Well, in his last three starts he's been beaten by 25 of 26 rivals and been a combined 86 1/2 lengths behind the winners in those three events. YIKES. Now if you're willing to toss all those, the only time Irad was on board was off the shelf in a Saratoga $50K event and he was a decent 4th with a 68 Beyer that's competitive with the best number of the top one. Maybe this really is THE DAY for program favorite 5-Vero Sun (5/2) who makes his first start for a tag today. But I'll never bet him. He's already 0-for-9 and been second or third six times. As if that isn't concerning enough, the barn is 1-for-27 on the year. OUCH. OK, I can see why perhaps you're interested in 4-Star of the West (6/1) who ran 4th in his Saratoga debut some 300+ days ago. But he was claimed that day and hasn't been seen since. Works are nothing to write home about, but you have to at least factor in the winner, Wicked Trick would come back to win FIVE in a row with speed figures going up each time, topped by a 101 in a January victory. Still, slow works and debuted at this same $20K level then. I'll just watch.
1:50 2-Belmont Starter Allowance (3yo) 8f - TURF
The second half of the early double appears at first glance a to be a rich starter event, but read the conditions carefully; "....for 3yo and up which have started for $50K or less and have never won two races..." So really it's a non-winners of two lifetime event. With an 80% chance of rain today perhaps we need to look at who's best on the main track also. And it's interesting that MOST of the turf entrants have mostly dirt form and there are four MTO's in the 12-horse line-up. I get it that every horse eventually finds "his spot," but you'd have a hard time convincing me to bet the 2/1 turf favorite who's 13/1-4-3 and has only been on the grass once, or the 5/2 MTO favorite who's already 20/1-3-4 and all but two of those came in NY state-bred races. No to both. 1-Mandate (3/1) has run well in four of five starts and his last two have been his best yet. He was a decisive winner over the Gulfstream turf when dropped in for a first time tag at $40K, and then last time out vs. winners he was only beaten 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish for a $50K starter tag similar to this. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez team up. MTO: 5-Fevola (8/5) will be hard to deny if duplicating that 82 Beyer from a runaway score going 6 1/2 furlongs for a $50K tag for Chad Brown here in just his second career start. A son of Midnight Lute he SHOULD be able to get the one-turn mile if this is moved to the main. 8-Bray (9/5) is lightly raced, both starts on the grass, and has earned "paired" 76 figures. Should move forward today. Won upon debut when just up in time and then ran quite well when 2nd beaten only 3/4 of a length in November. Note the show colt that day came right back to win. But the winner that day, Bourbon In May, has lost five in a row over the winter when considered a top contender in all those races. Mixed feelings.
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Special (2yo) 5f
The first NYRA juvenile race and if this were under nearly any other circumstances I strongly consider the Wesley Ward firster. But with no Keeneland to dominate this spring he's run around a dozen two-year-olds at Gulfstream and only won with two of them, both beating the more strongly bet stablemate from the Ward shedrow. I'll land instead on the Pletcher debut runner, 2-Prisoner (2/1) who not only gets Irad Ortiz, but goes out for top Pletcher client Michael Repole. That guy doesn't just run horses, his runners are always LIVE. Prisoner is a son of Violence, who was campaigned by the same connections and has eight works leading up to today including a bullet move. 3-Fauci (4/5) not only has a name I do NOT care for (the pandemic "guru") but also will be pounded at the windows. Lots of quick works, but so did the GP 2yo runners for Ward. I'd be more interested in Kelly Breen's 1-Garoppolo (9/2) with Jose Ortiz if he hadn't drawn the rail.
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 61/2 furlongs
Cheap sprinters in for a dime here and 3-Business Cycle (7/2) features one of my favorite angles with claiming horses - the "re-claim." He's been popular at the claim box as he's changed barns in four of his last five races, but what catches the eye is that he was claimed by Gary Gullo in December and the horse moved up by running faster on the Beyer scale and was a good second. Came right back to be second beaten a half under today's rider Manny Franco behind a next out repeat winner. But was claimed away. Ran second at today's $10K level beaten 3/4 of a length as the 4/5 favorite while more than half a dozen back to the show runner. And Gullo claimed him again. DRF analyst Mike Beer notes that Gullo has won with 26 of 103 first off the claim sprinters. Note that the three races noted above were at a one-turn mile and today he's back to sprinting where he's 3/1-2-0 at this distance. Has four works since that March race and while the 15/3-7-1 resume is worrisome, his main rivals are no better. Irad is going to take money on 13-Javelin (9/2) who's not only drawn in the parking lot but hasn't won a race since last spring, and that's not showing on his pp's. He's not much better with a 30/5-7-5 lifetime mark. Note the trainer is the same one who trains Cobble Hill in the opener, who Ortiz is also on board. May be a clue how that one runs to how Javelin may perform.
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Special 6f - TURF
After watching a steady diet of 5 furlong turf races at Gulfstream we now get the elongated 6f variety here in New York (note they also run 7f turf sprints). Like all races today in New York the concern will be the layoff, and particularly noting that 1-Strongerthanuknow (5/2) faded pretty badly in her career debut. BUT, that was on dirt. Made her turf debut in a Monmouth STAKES event and was dueling in the stretch when slammed by the eventual winner. The trouble was so bad that the winner was DQ'd (but came right back to win). Facing maidens she dueled through wicked fractions at this distance here last September before weakening to be a best-of-the-rest second. Irad takes the mount on the clear filly to beat. If this moves to the main track watch the betting. Chad Brown sends out MTO: 16-Jewel of Arabia (1/1) who's listed at a very short price. Neither the sire or dam ring a bell to me and the owner/breeder isn't a name I recognize as well. Joel Rosario picks up the mount.
3:59 6-Belmont Allowance nw1x 81/2f - TURF
Halfway through the card and we get a turf allowance event for entry level runners. These are particularly difficult typically because of the eclectic blend of entrants. This is a perfect example as you're presented with the question - assuming we're on the grass - with the lightly raced and talented 3yo 1-Passive Investing (3/1) who exits her maiden win for Chad Brown against a veteran seven year old mare who's already scored THIRTEEN TIMES (12-for-35 on the grass) in 7-Bareeqa (5/1) for Danny Gargan. The former was a sharp second in her first two starts, and it's well worth noting that in her second start the winner came right back to beat winners. Then in her Keeneland victory the runner-up came right back to win. Brown excels with runners off the bench like this so even if there had been regular racing the fact this filly has not been seen since October would not be a concern. What IS a concern is that Javier Castellano rides and he's as enigmatic as they come these days. He returned to riding at Oaklawn and did not impress on some legitimate runners. Bareeqa has the recency edge with two wins over the winter at Gulfstream and five wins in her last eight starts. But you have to be a least a bit concerned that she's started 43 times, is seven and has STILL not scored in entry level allowance company. Now also consider Irad is on Euro import 3-Madita (7/2) who's run two sharp races in North America, especially in her first NA start at Saratoga. But favored in both, lost them both and already 12/2-3-2. I'll play against and gamble that first time winners for Brown isn't a problem if Castellano doesn't get her into trouble. On the main track, MTO: Am Impazible (5/2) is lightly raced with three straight wins, all in state-bred company....a MSW, an entry level and a second level state-bred allowance.
4:32 7-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f
It's horse racing and we're talking about maidens, and add to that we're looking at a full field of runners who have ALL been away from the races for an extended time so ANYTHING could happen here. But on paper at least you have to start by reasonably eliminating from the WIN column all the "career" maidens in here. So if I were betting - which I'm not here, I'd focus on the two most lightly raced runners. I give 11-Forest Spirit (5/1) the nod over 3-Daithi (8/1) for two reasons. The speed figure earned in their lone start is higher for Forest Spirit but both barns are not strong with getting horses to the winner's circle. 10-Inside Info (4/1) deserves a look because he comes from the strong Brad Cox barn. Two issues here however. First, Javier Castellano - just don't know what kind of trip you're going to get. More importantly, 'Info debuted in a two-turn turf route at Saratoga and basically split that MSW field, finishing sixth. Made his second start at little Finger Lakes in a $100K dirt sprint stakes and again split the field. Now off a layoff, in a $30K maiden claiming dirt sprint. Seems like they just don't know what to do with him.
5:04 8-Belmont AOC nw2x 8f - TURF
A fascinating and very rugged second level turf allowance where you have a lot of options who would be no surprise what so ever in here. Lots of talent, just depends on what your personal priority is for the winner's profile. For me, recognizing that there are truly several legitimate win candidates I'll lean with the potential talent on display with 10-Value Proposition (7/2) who's won two of three starts. Romped in his debut HERE over yielding turf. Made his next start in the Gr 3 Pennine Ridge. Interesting that in the debut win he came from mid-pack but in the stakes he dueled on the lead before giving way. Returned six weeks later in an entry level allowance at the Spa and again came from mid-pack to win again. Good numbers, but more importantly it's the team of trainer Chad Brown, rider Irad Ortiz for the Klaravich ownership group. Could be any kind. 11-Hidden Scroll (5/2) the enigmatic and ultra talented colt is entered FOR TURF and comes off a sparkling bullet work over the Payson Park turf course for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Reverts back to jockey Johnny Velazquez who was aboard two back for his sensational comeback win. But has been the case with this guy, off of that he was a no show in the Gr 3 Count Fleet last time. If this is rained off and especially if it's sloppy going he'd be a major, MAJOR player. 1-Hay Dakota (8/1) has big figures and form and recency, but have to wonder what was going on with Jason Servis training as he's now been suspended. And 7-Dream Friend (6/1) has run nothing but 90+ Beyer figures since moving to turf routes, including a 3rd in the Gr 2 Baruch at Saratoga. Finally, Euro import 5-Arthur Kitt (8/1) a Euro shipper who made his first NA start in a Gr 2 and then was 2nd at this level when last seen. MTO: 13-I Love Jaxson (7/2) a one-turn mile specialist who's five of his last six would have to be in the mix on the main track. Good luck.
5:36 9-Belmont Grade 3 Beaugay 81/2f - TURF
The feature on "Comeback Wednesday" at Belmont is stellar. Any one of the six talented fillies & mares could win but if it's not one of the two headline stars they'll pay a big number. And for me it's a pretty simple task to separate 1-Rushing Fall (6/5) from 3-Got Stormy (7/5) today. The multiple Grade 1 winning filly had won three straight in 2019, all Gr 1 events and then was second travelling nine furlongs in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga behind Uni, who won the Gr 1 BC Mile to cap her 2019 campaign. Rushing Fallfell ill in August and missed a scheduled start. Forced to train up to the Grade 1 First Lady she was then posted wide in box number 10 and suffered a rough trip when finishing fourth. Given time off the connections are extremely high on her training and ability to run well today. Note she's 3-for-3 off layoffs and hasn't run at this level since the spring of 2018. And perhaps you may consider the fact that she's beaten Got Stormy previously as well. That filly is certainly talented, and she'd give Rushing Fall a real challenge IF she were in the form she displayed last summer. But her three races this year are clearly a step below those. Maybe thought the drop back to Grade 3 racing would get her back on track, but she's run into a buzz saw today. If you're looking for a better value exacta ticket maybe use Brown's other filly, 2-Fifty Five (5/1) who at first glance seems to be strictly a state-bred star, but look closely....she's Gr 2 and Gr 3 stakes placed when losing those two races by less than a length each last summer.
6:08 10-Belmont Claiming nw2L 6f
The closing day race goes through your opinion of 1-In The Loop (9/5) who fits the typical criteria for winners in these restricted level....first time tagged and first time vs. two-lifetime runners. But you have to be worried that he'll respond here. After a debut win in February 2019 at Gulfstream he was ambitiously placed in the Grade 3 Hutcheson. Ran fourth behind a repeat winner, but it was a field of four. Dropped all the way down to an AOC with a corresponding $16K tag he not only was sixth of seven, but wasn't well bet either. Now, off since September for a barn that's 2-for-22 with those layoff types you just have to wonder. Irad takes the call so that's a good sign. Can't bet against him, but won't bet on him either.
Welcome back New York racing!
PASS
1:34 4-Gulfstream Claiming nw3L 81/2f - TURF
Regardless of the surface I believe that 2-Champagne Horizon (3/1) is clearly the one to beat today in this restricted event. On the turf this 4yo filly stands out after facing $40K starter types in her last two. Her first start of 2020 saw her a decisive winner vs. 2L runners for nearly twice today's tag, then was a just-miss second vs. $30K starter foes. On the grass it's hard to imagine we won't see Paco's patented fist as he greets trainer Jane Cibelli in the winner's circle. On the dirt she'd own the class advantage and while she's never been on dirt she's the daughter of 2yo BC Juvenile champ New Year's Day and has big Tomlinson figures for the off-going. Might scratch out if moved off the turf, but I'd like her either way.
$10 WIN (turf - $5 dirt) #2 Champagne Horizon
1:50 2-Belmont Starter Allowance (3yo) 8f - TURF
The second half of the early double appears at first glance a to be a rich starter event, but read the conditions carefully; "....for 3yo and up which have started for $50K or less and have never won two races..." So really it's a non-winners of two lifetime event. With an 80% chance of rain today perhaps we need to look at who's best on the main track also. And it's interesting that MOST of the turf entrants have mostly dirt form and there are four MTO's in the 12-horse line-up. I get it that every horse eventually finds "his spot," but you'd have a hard time convincing me to bet the 2/1 turf favorite who's 13/1-4-3 and has only been on the grass once, or the 5/2 MTO favorite who's already 20/1-3-4 and all but two of those came in NY state-bred races. No to both. 1-Mandate (3/1) has run well in four of five starts and his last two have been his best yet. He was a decisive winner over the Gulfstream turf when dropped in for a first time tag at $40K, and then last time out vs. winners he was only beaten 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish for a $50K starter tag similar to this. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez team up. MTO: 5-Fevola (8/5) will be hard to deny if duplicating that 82 Beyer from a runaway score going 6 1/2 furlongs for a $50K tag for Chad Brown here in just his second career start. A son of Midnight Lute he SHOULD be able to get the one-turn mile if this is moved to the main. 8-Bray (9/5) is lightly raced, both starts on the grass, and has earned "paired" 76 figures. Should move forward today. Won upon debut when just up in time and then ran quite well when 2nd beaten only 3/4 of a length in November. Note the show colt that day came right back to win. But the winner that day, Bourbon In May, has lost five in a row over the winter when considered a top contender in all those races. Mixed feelings.
PASS
2:05 5-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 5f - TURF
Nearly everyone dropping in class and interestingly a COMBINED THREE turf sprint starts between them. On the grass, a complete "go figure." On the dirt it would be a reboot handicapping process. Let's wait and see, but for now it's a solid watch without wager race.
PASS
2:23 3-Belmont Maiden Special (2yo) 5f
The first NYRA juvenile race and if this were under nearly any other circumstances I strongly consider the Wesley Ward firster. But with no Keeneland to dominate this spring he's run around a dozen two-year-olds at Gulfstream and only won with two of them, both beating the more strongly bet stablemate from the Ward shedrow. I'll land instead on the Pletcher debut runner, 2-Prisoner (2/1) who not only gets Irad Ortiz, but goes out for top Pletcher client Michael Repole. That guy doesn't just run horses, his runners are always LIVE. Prisoner is a son of Violence, who was campaigned by the same connections and has eight works leading up to today including a bullet move. 3-Fauci (4/5) not only has a name I do NOT care for (the pandemic "guru") but also will be pounded at the windows. Lots of quick works, but so did the GP 2yo runners for Ward. I'd be more interested in Kelly Breen's 1-Garoppolo (9/2) with Jose Ortiz if he hadn't drawn the rail.
$5 WIN # 2 Prisoner
2:37 6-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 6f
Truly, much like Race 2 it's all about knowing your track here. Off a dismal try last time out owner Frank Calabrese and trainer Saffie Joesph drop 1-Chill Haze (7/5) like a lead balloon from three $50K starts to this $16K level. Can you make any excuse what so ever for the 7th beaten nearly twenty-five...yes, 25 lengths last time out? Because if you can the two previous when fresh off the claim he was 2nd at the $50K level make her a standout worthy of the short price. Read the comment line, "....tossed head, reared at the start...." OH. Watch the replay, just as the gates are about to open he is about to go up in the air, then they do open and he tosses his head sharply to the side, leaps in the air on his back two hoofs and immediately spots the field more than half a dozen lengths. You can tell from the running line that the rider never asked him to run from start to finish and just jogged around the track. Paco gets on and he's a 46% winning rider for the barn. L-O-N-G gone.
$15 WIN #1 Chill Haze
2:55 4-Belmont Claiming 61/2 furlongs
Cheap sprinters in for a dime here and 3-Business Cycle (7/2) features one of my favorite angles with claiming horses - the "re-claim." He's been popular at the claim box as he's changed barns in four of his last five races, but what catches the eye is that he was claimed by Gary Gullo in December and the horse moved up by running faster on the Beyer scale and was a good second. Came right back to be second beaten a half under today's rider Manny Franco behind a next out repeat winner. But was claimed away. Ran second at today's $10K level beaten 3/4 of a length as the 4/5 favorite while more than half a dozen back to the show runner. And Gullo claimed him again. DRF analyst Mike Beer notes that Gullo has won with 26 of 103 first off the claim sprinters. Note that the three races noted above were at a one-turn mile and today he's back to sprinting where he's 3/1-2-0 at this distance. Has four works since that March race and while the 15/3-7-1 resume is worrisome, his main rivals are no better. Irad is going to take money on 13-Javelin (9/2) who's not only drawn in the parking lot but hasn't won a race since last spring, and that's not showing on his pp's. He's not much better with a 30/5-7-5 lifetime mark. Note the trainer is the same one who trains Cobble Hill in the opener, who Ortiz is also on board. May be a clue how that one runs to how Javelin may perform.
$10 WIN #3 Business Cycle
3:09 7-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 81/2f - TURF
If this remains on the inner the most likely winner would be classy 9-Patriot Drive (3/1) who dropped into a Fair Grounds 2nd level allowance like this last time following three stakes efforts. That he was 4th beaten less than four lengths is a positive, but now read the trouble line, ".....bobbled at the break, bumped and taken up....." WOW. Remarkable. With a clean trip under Paco for Mike Maker he's the grass winner. If moved to the main track we have another former classy runner in MTO: 3-Jay's Way (7/2) who will likely take these guys on a merry chase under Emisael Jaramillo, aka "The Minister of Speed." In January 2018 he won the Sunshine Millions Classic and in 2019 he was 2nd beaten a half in that featured event. So ok, in this year's edition he was "off slowly and walked off..." oh, that can't be good. But has moved into the Danny Gargan barn who's 26% off a long layoff like this one and he sports four very solid works. Class relief, on the drop, facing turf runners on HIS favorite surface. Looks like a winner-winner, chicken dinner.
$5 WIN MTO: 3-Jay's Way
3:27 5-Belmont Maiden Special 6f - TURF
After watching a steady diet of 5 furlong turf races at Gulfstream we now get the elongated 6f variety here in New York (note they also run 7f turf sprints). Like all races today in New York the concern will be the layoff, and particularly noting that 1-Strongerthanuknow (5/2) faded pretty badly in her career debut. BUT, that was on dirt. Made her turf debut in a Monmouth STAKES event and was dueling in the stretch when slammed by the eventual winner. The trouble was so bad that the winner was DQ'd (but came right back to win). Facing maidens she dueled through wicked fractions at this distance here last September before weakening to be a best-of-the-rest second. Irad takes the mount on the clear filly to beat. If this moves to the main track watch the betting. Chad Brown sends out MTO: 16-Jewel of Arabia (1/1) who's listed at a very short price. Neither the sire or dam ring a bell to me and the owner/breeder isn't a name I recognize as well. Joel Rosario picks up the mount.
$10 WIN #1 Strongerthanuknow
3:41 8-Gulfstream Claiming 6f
The biggest question is which 1-Quijote (7/5) do we get today. Because the "good" one runs away with this. He ran five races from May 2018 to November 2018 that were decent with Beyers good enough to win here. His runaway score in the GPW slop earned an out-of-character 90 Beyer. Moved into the Georgina Baxter barn and ran a 103 winning the Sunshine Millions Sprint in Jan 2019. Ran 2nd with a 97 in the Gr 3 GP Sprint right after that. Now back in the mid-70's he comes off a pace-setting, then weaken to third at this same $35K "beaten" level. But the top two were more than a dozen clear of him and he was nearly five clear of the rest. Jaramillo for Baxter. If he does not fire his best shot, what about that BEST-OF-95 bullet fired by improving 6-Poseidon (9/2) for this spot? Lightly raced, but how do you reconcile he beat MC $30K in March then $16K 2L last time out and now jumps all the way up to $35K "beaten" runners.
PASS
3:59 6-Belmont Allowance nw1x 81/2f - TURF
Halfway through the card and we get a turf allowance event for entry level runners. These are particularly difficult typically because of the eclectic blend of entrants. This is a perfect example as you're presented with the question - assuming we're on the grass - with the lightly raced and talented 3yo 1-Passive Investing (3/1) who exits her maiden win for Chad Brown against a veteran seven year old mare who's already scored THIRTEEN TIMES (12-for-35 on the grass) in 7-Bareeqa (5/1) for Danny Gargan. The former was a sharp second in her first two starts, and it's well worth noting that in her second start the winner came right back to beat winners. Then in her Keeneland victory the runner-up came right back to win. Brown excels with runners off the bench like this so even if there had been regular racing the fact this filly has not been seen since October would not be a concern. What IS a concern is that Javier Castellano rides and he's as enigmatic as they come these days. He returned to riding at Oaklawn and did not impress on some legitimate runners. Bareeqa has the recency edge with two wins over the winter at Gulfstream and five wins in her last eight starts. But you have to be a least a bit concerned that she's started 43 times, is seven and has STILL not scored in entry level allowance company. Now also consider Irad is on Euro import 3-Madita (7/2) who's run two sharp races in North America, especially in her first NA start at Saratoga. But favored in both, lost them both and already 12/2-3-2. I'll play against and gamble that first time winners for Brown isn't a problem if Castellano doesn't get her into trouble. On the main track, MTO: Am Impazible (5/2) is lightly raced with three straight wins, all in state-bred company....a MSW, an entry level and a second level state-bred allowance.
$5 WIN #1 Passive Investing
4:13 9-Gulfstream AOC nw1x 5f - TURF
If sprinting on the inner grass I'd have a lot of questions and it would most certainly be a watch-only kind of race, barring multiple scratches. But if moved to the main track I'd favor MTO: 6-Take Charge Dude (7/5) who goes - like many of today's So Fla selections - for trainer Saffie Joseph. In addition to the obvious main track only advantage, this 5yo has a 6/4-1-1 record at today's short sprint distance. And he will be oh-so-happy to get away from Travy Boy who's beaten him in both his last two starts (2nd by a neck and a length). Would be a big-time wire threat depending on who else is in the race, but trust that jockey Edgard Zayas would allow him to press the pace if there was a "need to lead" cheap turf speed in the mix.
$5* WIN MTO: #6 Take Charge Dude
4:32 7-Belmont Maiden Claiming 6f
It's horse racing and we're talking about maidens, and add to that we're looking at a full field of runners who have ALL been away from the races for an extended time so ANYTHING could happen here. But on paper at least you have to start by reasonably eliminating from the WIN column all the "career" maidens in here. So if I were betting - which I'm not here, I'd focus on the two most lightly raced runners. I give 11-Forest Spirit (5/1) the nod over 3-Daithi (8/1) for two reasons. The speed figure earned in their lone start is higher for Forest Spirit but both barns are not strong with getting horses to the winner's circle. 10-Inside Info (4/1) deserves a look because he comes from the strong Brad Cox barn. Two issues here however. First, Javier Castellano - just don't know what kind of trip you're going to get. More importantly, 'Info debuted in a two-turn turf route at Saratoga and basically split that MSW field, finishing sixth. Made his second start at little Finger Lakes in a $100K dirt sprint stakes and again split the field. Now off a layoff, in a $30K maiden claiming dirt sprint. Seems like they just don't know what to do with him.
PASS
4:45 10-Gulfstream Maiden Claiming 61/2f
The Wednesday finale sees most of the field with a litany of losses and the firsters without a lot of appeal to them. 9-Tony Small (3/1) could top off a big day for trainer Saffie Joseph by winning his first start for the local conditioner. Not a fan of the EIGHT losses already, but those came vs. tougher NYRA foes and for prices MUCH higher than today's basement $10K. Have to wonder why Miguel Vasquez is riding - he's only had 11 mounts for the barn over the last two years and Paco is in town, as well as Edgard Zayas, the more regular go-to jocks. Speaking of Paco, he's on long shot 4-Mithra (10/1) who may be appealing if that one takes some play. Love that 2nd best of 62 work for today.
PASS
5:04 8-Belmont AOC nw2x 8f - TURF
A fascinating and very rugged second level turf allowance where you have a lot of options who would be no surprise what so ever in here. Lots of talent, just depends on what your personal priority is for the winner's profile. For me, recognizing that there are truly several legitimate win candidates I'll lean with the potential talent on display with 10-Value Proposition (7/2) who's won two of three starts. Romped in his debut HERE over yielding turf. Made his next start in the Gr 3 Pennine Ridge. Interesting that in the debut win he came from mid-pack but in the stakes he dueled on the lead before giving way. Returned six weeks later in an entry level allowance at the Spa and again came from mid-pack to win again. Good numbers, but more importantly it's the team of trainer Chad Brown, rider Irad Ortiz for the Klaravich ownership group. Could be any kind. 11-Hidden Scroll (5/2) the enigmatic and ultra talented colt is entered FOR TURF and comes off a sparkling bullet work over the Payson Park turf course for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Reverts back to jockey Johnny Velazquez who was aboard two back for his sensational comeback win. But has been the case with this guy, off of that he was a no show in the Gr 3 Count Fleet last time. If this is rained off and especially if it's sloppy going he'd be a major, MAJOR player. 1-Hay Dakota (8/1) has big figures and form and recency, but have to wonder what was going on with Jason Servis training as he's now been suspended. And 7-Dream Friend (6/1) has run nothing but 90+ Beyer figures since moving to turf routes, including a 3rd in the Gr 2 Baruch at Saratoga. Finally, Euro import 5-Arthur Kitt (8/1) a Euro shipper who made his first NA start in a Gr 2 and then was 2nd at this level when last seen. MTO: 13-I Love Jaxson (7/2) a one-turn mile specialist who's five of his last six would have to be in the mix on the main track. Good luck.
$10 WIN #10 Value Proposition
5:36 9-Belmont Grade 3 Beaugay 81/2f - TURF
The feature on "Comeback Wednesday" at Belmont is stellar. Any one of the six talented fillies & mares could win but if it's not one of the two headline stars they'll pay a big number. And for me it's a pretty simple task to separate 1-Rushing Fall (6/5) from 3-Got Stormy (7/5) today. The multiple Grade 1 winning filly had won three straight in 2019, all Gr 1 events and then was second travelling nine furlongs in the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga behind Uni, who won the Gr 1 BC Mile to cap her 2019 campaign. Rushing Fallfell ill in August and missed a scheduled start. Forced to train up to the Grade 1 First Lady she was then posted wide in box number 10 and suffered a rough trip when finishing fourth. Given time off the connections are extremely high on her training and ability to run well today. Note she's 3-for-3 off layoffs and hasn't run at this level since the spring of 2018. And perhaps you may consider the fact that she's beaten Got Stormy previously as well. That filly is certainly talented, and she'd give Rushing Fall a real challenge IF she were in the form she displayed last summer. But her three races this year are clearly a step below those. Maybe thought the drop back to Grade 3 racing would get her back on track, but she's run into a buzz saw today. If you're looking for a better value exacta ticket maybe use Brown's other filly, 2-Fifty Five (5/1) who at first glance seems to be strictly a state-bred star, but look closely....she's Gr 2 and Gr 3 stakes placed when losing those two races by less than a length each last summer.
$30 WIN #1 Rushing Fall
6:08 10-Belmont Claiming nw2L 6f
The closing day race goes through your opinion of 1-In The Loop (9/5) who fits the typical criteria for winners in these restricted level....first time tagged and first time vs. two-lifetime runners. But you have to be worried that he'll respond here. After a debut win in February 2019 at Gulfstream he was ambitiously placed in the Grade 3 Hutcheson. Ran fourth behind a repeat winner, but it was a field of four. Dropped all the way down to an AOC with a corresponding $16K tag he not only was sixth of seven, but wasn't well bet either. Now, off since September for a barn that's 2-for-22 with those layoff types you just have to wonder. Irad takes the call so that's a good sign. Can't bet against him, but won't bet on him either.
PASS
Welcome back New York racing!
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